• The historical inverse relationship between gold prices and real interest rates has frayed.
• Rising Treasury yields are no longer just seen as competition for gold ; they are interpreted as a signal of growing fiscal strain, mounting federal debt, and diminished political consensus for fiscal restraint. 
• Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China and India, have become major buyers to protect reserve assets from Western political vulnerabilities and sanctions risk. 
• Gold’s role has evolved from being a simple inflation hedge into a “trust or credibility hedge,” serving as monetary ballast for those seeking insulation from eroding confidence in long-term government, fiscal, and institutional stability. 

For decades, one of the most reliable relationships in finance was the inverse connection between gold prices and real interest rates. The logic was straightforward: gold yields nothing. When buyers could earn attractive inflation-adjusted returns on safe government debt—especially long-dated US Treasuries – the opportunity cost of holding gold increased, typically weighing on prices. Conversely, when real yields fell, gold became relatively more attractive, often appreciating as buyerrs sought protection against inflation, currency weakness, or monetary instability.

Yet over the last several years, and especially within the last few months, something unusual has occurred. Gold has remained historically elevated even as real yields, particularly on long-duration US government debt, have stayed stubbornly high. The yield on the 30-year Treasury has hovered near levels not seen consistently in years, while inflation-adjusted rates remain positive and, at times, historically elevated. Under the traditional framework, gold should be under pressure. Instead, it has proven remarkably resilient.

Perceptions of Sovereign Risk and Fiscal Strain

What explains this apparent breakdown? One answer lies in changing perceptions of sovereign risk; not default risk in the conventional sense, but concerns about fiscal sustainability and long-term monetary credibility. Investors increasingly confront a paradox: US Treasury securities remain the world’s benchmark safe asset, yet America’s debt trajectory appears increasingly difficult to ignore. Federal deficits remain elevated even during periods of economic expansion, debt servicing costs have surged alongside higher interest rates, and political consensus around fiscal restraint has vanished from the political conversation.

This creates an unusual dynamic. Rising Treasury yields would ordinarily compete with gold by offering investors greater returns. But if those same higher yields are themselves interpreted as evidence of growing fiscal strain – reflecting concerns over mounting Treasury issuance, debt rollover risks, or long-term inflationary pressures – they may simultaneously strengthen the case for holding gold. In other words, rising yields may no longer purely represent competition for gold; they may increasingly signal the very instability gold buyers seek protection against.

The Rise of Central Bank Demand and Geopolitical Realities

A second factor involves the changing composition of gold demand. Traditionally, Western institutional investors, hedge funds, and retail flows through exchange-traded funds played an outsized role in gold pricing. Increasingly, however, central banks – particularly in emerging markets – have become major buyers. Countries such as China, India, Turkey, and others have steadily accumulated gold reserves in recent years.

The motivation is not difficult to understand. Following the freezing of Russian foreign reserves after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, many governments were reminded that reserve assets held within the Western financial architecture can become politically vulnerable. Gold, by contrast, carries no issuer risk, no sanctions risk, and no counterparty risk. It is among the few internationally recognized reserve assets that exists outside the liabilities of another government.

This shift matters because central bank buying tends to be less sensitive to short-term changes in yields than speculative investor flows. A pension fund manager deciding between Treasuries and bullion may care deeply about inflation-adjusted returns; a sovereign reserve manager concerned about geopolitical fragmentation may care far less.

Evolving Psychology: Gold as a Credibility Hedge

There is also growing evidence that gold’s role in buyer psychology may be evolving. For years, gold was simplistically described as an inflation hedge, though the empirical relationship was sometimes inconsistent. Gold sometimes rallied amid inflation, but at other times lagged. Increasingly, gold appears less tied to inflation itself and more responsive to declining confidence in institutions – monetary, fiscal, political, or financial.

In this sense, gold is acting like what might be called a “trust (or ‘credibility’) hedge.” Investors are not necessarily buying gold because they expect imminent inflation or recession. Rather, they may be purchasing it because they feel less certain about the long-run credibility of governments, central banks, currencies, or financial blocs. A world marked by conflict, fiscal stress, repeated banking disruptions, interventionism, reserve weaponization, and debates over currency systems naturally increases gold’s appeal.

None of this means the historical relationship between gold and real yields has disappeared entirely. Higher real rates still matter, and periods of rising yields can pressure gold in the short run. Nor does any of this mean gold is destined to rise indefinitely. If inflation moderates sustainably, fiscal concerns ease, and global confidence stabilizes, gold’s momentum could flag.

But the market appears increasingly willing to tolerate something that once seemed contradictory: elevated gold prices alongside elevated long-term Treasury yields.

Conclusion

That coexistence may signal something deeper than temporary market noise. It may suggest that investors increasingly see long bonds and gold not as straightforward substitutes, but as serving different purposes altogether. One offers income and liquidity. The other offers insulation from the possibility that confidence in the broader system itself may be eroding.

In that sense, gold’s recent co-movement with long-bond yields may not represent a breakdown in the old relationship at all. Rather, it may reflect changing reasons for owning gold. In a world of rising debt, fiscal uncertainty, and geopolitical fragmentation, buyers appear increasingly to value gold less singularly as an inflation hedge and more as a form of ‘monetary ballast’ – an asset perceived as independent of politics, policy, and counterparty risk.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and is Head of Reseach who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

The post Gold and the Long Bond: Why the Old Relationship Is Fraying appeared first on Top Rated Gold IRA Company - Goldco Precious Metals.

Since hitting all-time highs in early 2026, gold and silver prices have retrenched somewhat, although they’re still higher than they were when the year began. And many analysts still expect both gold and silver prices to continue climbing this year.

But there are numerous recent events that could impact gold and silver prices, both positively and negatively. Many of them we’ve covered in recent articles, such as central bank gold demand, geopolitical risk, and rising economic uncertainty.

What we’ll focus on today are three very specific recent events that could lead to price movements in both gold and silver.

1. India’s Gold and Silver Tariffs

India is the world’s second largest consumer of gold and the second-largest consumer of silver. So events in India can make a significant impact on both demand for gold and silver and prices for gold and silver.

Due to recent weakening of the Indian rupee, the Indian government recently increased tariffs on gold and silver imports significantly, raising tariffs on gold imports to 15% and on silver imports to 6%.

The Indian government also stated that any imports of gold in excess of 100 kilograms (~3,215 ounces, or 8 Good Delivery bars), would require prior authorization, and that subsequent import approvals would only be granted when exports equivalent to 50% had taken place.

The reason for that is that when the rupee weakens, many Indians turn to gold and silver to help preserve their wealth in the face of a weakening currency. It’s a natural reaction, as gold has served as an inflation hedge for centuries.

The Indian government, however, is facing a currency crisis, as the war against Iran has caused crude oil prices to rise significantly, and crude oil is India’s largest import. That has led to an outflow of foreign exchange which has weakened the rupee, and people dumping the rupee for gold and silver isn’t making the situation any better.

The increase in tariffs has led to significant price swings within India, with gold prices at one point trading at a more than $200 discount to world gold prices. And some analysts expect that the tariffs could lead to a 20-25% decrease in gold and silver demand within India.

Because India is the world’s second-largest consumer of both gold and silver, if these tariffs remain in effect then it could significantly dent gold and silver demand from India.

If that reduced demand from India were not to be offset by increased demand elsewhere, it could keep gold and silver prices from rising as much as they otherwise might.

Of course, this also ties back to geopolitical risk, as the rupee crisis was spurred by the war against Iran. If that conflict were to come to a successful conclusion, and if oil prices were to come down, then India’s currency crisis could abate, which could lead the Indian government to bring those import tariffs down.

2. Gold and Silver Futures

Coinbase is probably best known as a cryptocurrency exchange, but it recently launched new gold and silver futures trading on its platform, one that allows people to trade with up to 25x leverage.

While this new trading platform isn’t available to traders inside the US right now, and it may not challenge existing futures trading on established commodities exchanges, it’s nonetheless an indicator of how much interest there is in gold and silver, and how many people want to take advantage of rising gold and silver prices.

If futures contracts become more easily available to more people, it could offer greater exposure to precious metals markets and impact gold and silver prices.

3. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

The actions of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy always have an impact on gold and silver prices, as they have on prices of numerous other products throughout the economy. But with inflation figures rising and new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh expected to take a more hawkish approach towards monetary policy, things could look a little different at the Fed in the coming months.

Markets no longer seem to be as sure that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates. In fact, markets now expect the Fed to hike interest rates by early next year, a dramatic reversal from what had previously been expected.

Conventional thinking has often been that rate hikes are bad for gold and rate cuts are good. This is because, as interest rates rise, bond yields do as well, making bonds such as US Treasuries a more attractive safe haven option versus gold.

However, if these rate hikes end up worsening the job market and slowing the economy, that worsening could end up pushing people back into gold anyway.

There’s obviously a lot that could happen before the end of the year, so there’s no way to tell exactly where the Fed may end up by then, but keep your eyes on what the Fed does under Chairman Warsh to try to figure out how the Fed’s actions may end up impacting gold.

Is Now the Time to Buy Gold and Silver?

If you watched gold and silver rise in price from 2024 onward and were kicking yourself for missing the boat, now may be the time to jump back in. Gold and silver prices have pulled back from their all-time highs, and are waiting for the next big event to push them back over the hump.

With fear of recession growing in the US, a recession could be just what gold and silver need to push right back towards their record highs. And with analysts calling for gold to reach $6,000 and silver to reach $100, there could still be plenty of room for gold and silver to run.

Now is the time to start thinking about how gold and silver might fit into your financial planning, and whether now is the right time for you to buy gold and silver. If you’re looking to buy gold and silver, Goldco can help.

With over $3 billion in precious metals placements and over 8,000 5-star reviews, Goldco has helped thousands of Americans benefit from owning precious metals, and has become one of the best gold IRA companies in the country.

Don’t wait any longer to take advantage of gold and silver. Call Goldco today to help safeguard your savings with precious metals.

The post 3 Things to Watch for in Gold & Silver Markets Today appeared first on Top Rated Gold IRA Company - Goldco Precious Metals.

The phrase “fort knox gold audit” has re-entered public and financial discourse following renewed political calls to physically verify U.S. gold reserves stored at the Fort Knox Bullion Depository in Kentucky.

The discussion intensified after recent high-profile financial enforcement actions involving the seizure of approximately $40 million in gold bars tied to a former intelligence official. While unrelated to U.S. sovereign reserves, the event contributed to broader public interest in gold custody, transparency, and asset verification across both private and institutional channels.

Former President Donald Trump has publicly suggested a physical inspection of Fort Knox, arguing that a modern audit could reinforce confidence in the integrity of U.S. reserve assets. Treasury officials, however, continue to affirm that gold holdings are properly accounted for through established internal controls and reconciliations.

While this debate often becomes political in tone, the underlying issue for markets is fundamentally financial: how sovereign assets are verified, recorded, and trusted in modern monetary systems.

What Is Fort Knox and Why It Matters to Financial Markets

The Fort Knox Bullion Depository is one of the most secure storage facilities in the world, operated by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It is widely believed to hold a significant portion of U.S. official gold reserves, estimated at roughly 147 million troy ounces.

At current market prices, that equates to several hundred billion dollars in market value, though on official government balance sheets, the gold is still carried at a statutory valuation of $42.22 per ounce, a legacy accounting figure that significantly understates its market worth.

This discrepancy between book value and market value is one reason Fort Knox continues to attract attention. While the U.S. no longer operates under a gold standard, gold remains a strategic reserve asset that supports confidence in sovereign balance sheets.

Importantly, Fort Knox is not a tradable financial instrument, but its perceived integrity plays a role in broader macroeconomic sentiment, particularly during periods of inflation uncertainty or geopolitical tension.

Why the Fort Knox Gold Audit Conversation Has Returned

The renewed interest in a fort knox gold audit is driven by a combination of political commentary, historical gaps in public verification, and increased scrutiny of asset custody across financial systems.

One of the central talking points is that while internal audits and reconciliations are performed by government agencies, there has been no widely publicized full physical audit of every gold bar in Fort Knox in decades.

The last major inspection occurred in the early 1950s, when select officials and congressional representatives were allowed to observe portions of the reserves. Since then, verification has largely relied on:

• Internal Treasury reconciliation processes
• Vault security and access logs
• Periodic sampling and assay checks
• Independent audits of accounting records

Supporters of a new audit argue that modern verification standards and technology could allow for greater transparency without compromising security protocols.

Opponents emphasize that existing procedures already meet stringent governmental accountability standards and that full physical audits could introduce unnecessary operational and security risks.

Has the U.S. Gold in Fort Knox Ever Been Questioned?

Over the years, various public figures and commentators have raised questions about the transparency of Fort Knox holdings, largely due to the long gap since a full public inspection.

However, there has never been credible evidence from official audits or government investigations indicating discrepancies in reported gold reserves.

The Treasury Department maintains that U.S. gold holdings are:

• Securely stored in multiple depositories
• Subject to internal controls and audit procedures
• Reconciled against detailed bar lists and records

From an institutional standpoint, sovereign gold custody operates differently from retail or exchange-traded assets. Instead of frequent full physical counts, systems rely on chain-of-custody documentation, sealed storage, and controlled verification processes.

This approach is consistent with global sovereign reserve management practices.

Market Implications of a Fort Knox Gold Audit

While Fort Knox gold is not actively traded, discussions around its verification can still influence market psychology.

1. Confidence in Sovereign Reserves

Gold remains one of the most widely recognized reserve assets globally. Any perceived uncertainty around sovereign gold reporting—however speculative—can temporarily influence sentiment in currency and commodities markets.

2. Gold Price Sensitivity

Gold prices are driven primarily by interest rates, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risk. However, symbolic events or policy discussions can create short-term sentiment shifts among traders and macro funds.

3. Broader Trust in Financial Institutions

The conversation reflects a larger theme in global markets: increasing demand for transparency in institutional balance sheets. This includes not only gold reserves but also sovereign debt reporting and central bank asset disclosures.

It is important to distinguish between verified financial reporting and political commentary, as market reactions often stem from perception rather than structural change.

What a Modern Fort Knox Gold Audit Would Involve

A full modern audit of Fort Knox would be a complex, highly controlled operation involving multiple layers of verification.

In practice, such an audit would likely include:

• Physical verification of gold bars and serial numbers
• Weight and purity confirmation through sampling
• Reconciliation with Treasury bar lists
• Independent third-party auditing oversight
• Strict chain-of-custody protocols
• Security coordination with federal agencies

Given the scale of reserves—millions of individual gold bars—such an undertaking would require extensive planning and could take significant time to complete.

Experts also note that removing or physically handling large volumes of gold increases logistical and security risks, which is why modern sovereign audits often prioritize documentation-based verification over full physical recounts.

Why the Debate Matters Beyond Politics

At its core, the fort knox gold audit discussion is not just about whether gold is physically present in a vault. It reflects a broader financial theme: the importance of trust in sovereign asset reporting systems.

In modern markets, confidence in government balance sheets plays a key role in:

• Currency stability
• Long-term inflation expectations
• Global reserve currency status
• Institutional investor sentiment

Even though gold no longer backs the U.S. dollar, it remains a symbolic anchor of financial credibility. As a result, discussions around its verification tend to attract attention well beyond the commodities sector.

Conclusion: Transparency, Trust, and the Future of Sovereign Gold Auditing

The renewed attention on a fort knox gold audit highlights a recurring tension in financial systems: the balance between operational security and public transparency.

Government agencies maintain that existing audit procedures are robust and sufficient to ensure the integrity of U.S. gold holdings. Meanwhile, political leaders and segments of the public continue to advocate for a modern physical inspection to reinforce confidence through direct verification.

Regardless of whether a full audit takes place, the discussion underscores gold’s enduring role in global finance—not just as a commodity, but as a benchmark of trust in sovereign systems.

As markets evolve and transparency expectations increase, the way governments verify and communicate reserve assets may become just as important as the assets themselves.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment, legal, or tax advice. All commentary is based on publicly available information and general market analysis.

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• Prices for goods like housing, tuition, and oil appear to skyrocket or fluctuate wildly in dollars, but they often remain stable or even decrease when measured in gold.
• Although nominal wages and stock market indexes have reached historic highs, workers’ actual command over real resources has eroded when evaluated against gold.
• Because gold cannot be printed or altered by central bank policies, it serves as an independent measuring stick that exposes the long-term effects of fiat currency intervention and inflation.
• Viewing the economy through “gold lenses” reveals that apparent financial growth is often just a reflection of the changing value of the dollar rather than a true increase in wealth.

For most people, gold occupies one of two conceptual categories. It is viewed either as a hedge/investment or as a historical monetary asset – something associated with central banks, long-term wealth preservation, and earlier monetary systems. Yet there is another, arguably more useful way to think about gold: not merely as an asset, but as a lens. 

Looking at the world through “gold lenses” does something curious. It alters our perception of prices, wealth, inflation, and even economic policy itself. Objects and services that appear dramatically more expensive over time can sometimes look surprisingly stable, or even cheaper, when measured in ounces of gold. Meanwhile, what appears to be prosperity in nominal terms may look rather different when evaluated in terms of enduring purchasing power. 

This way of viewing the world starts with a simple question: instead of asking what something costs in dollars, euros, or yen, what if we asked what it costs in gold?

Consider housing. Americans rightly lament that homes have become vastly more expensive over time. In nominal dollar terms, they certainly have. A median American home that cost roughly $122,000 in 1990 now costs well over $400,000, seemingly confirming a story of runaway unaffordability. But gold lenses complicate that story. In 1990, the median home required roughly 320 ounces of gold to purchase. By the housing bubble era of 2000, that figure had risen to more than 600 ounces, reflecting both rising home prices and depressed gold valuations. Yet by 2025, despite median home prices reaching approximately $415,000, the same home required only about 119 ounces of gold. Housing became dramatically more expensive in dollar terms while becoming considerably cheaper in gold terms: not because homes suddenly became affordable, but because the denominator changed.

The same phenomenon appears elsewhere. Oil, food, automobiles, luxury watches, and even higher education tell different stories when denominated in gold. Crude oil, for example, appears wildly volatile in dollar terms, moving from around $25 per barrel in 1990 to more than $100 today. Yet in gold terms, the swings look far less dramatic: a barrel of oil required about 0.06 ounces of gold in both 1990 and 2010, compared with only around 0.02 ounces in recent years. What often appears to be commodity instability may sometimes reflect instability in the currency doing the measuring. 

Even college tuition – a frequent symbol of modern costs run amok – looks different through gold lenses. Private four-year tuition rose from roughly $9,300 annually in 1990 to around $45,000 today, but measured in gold, tuition peaked near 58 ounces in 2000 and stood closer to 13 ounces by 2025. That does not, of course, mean that college became inexpensive. Rather, it reminds us that nominal prices can exaggerate long-run changes when money itself is changing value.

Even financial markets tell a different story through gold lenses. Investors obsess over whether the Dow Jones Industrial Average or S&P 500 has reached new highs, but nominal records can be deceiving. At the height of the dot-com boom in 2000, the S&P 500 traded near 1,420, equivalent to roughly 5.1 ounces of gold. By contrast, in 2025, despite the index exceeding 6,200, it represented only about 1.8 ounces of gold. Investors may possess substantially more nominal wealth than they once did, but their command over scarce monetary resources may not have expanded nearly as dramatically. Economic life is not ultimately experienced in brokerage statement balances or stock index points but in purchasing power exchanged for real goods and services over time.

Wages reveal a similarly complicated story. Average hourly earnings rose from roughly $10 per hour in 1990 to more than $31 today, seemingly an impressive gain. Yet measured in gold, an hour of labor purchased approximately 0.027 ounces of gold in 1990, compared with only about 0.009 ounces today: roughly 0.84 grams of gold per hour then versus 0.28 grams now. Nominal wages have risen dramatically. Yet measured against a hard monetary benchmark, workers’ command over real resources has deteriorated.

This is where gold becomes more than a hedge against uncertainty or purchasing-power erosion. It can be used as a diagnostic tool – a way of observing the cumulative effects of interventionism on money itself.

Modern fiat (unbacked) currencies are products of institutions and policy choices. Central banks adjust interest rates, governments run deficits, emergency spending proliferates during crises, and financial systems are repeatedly backstopped through interventions designed to prevent disorder. Many of these actions may be understandable in the moment. Yet they also alter the purchasing power of money over time. Because fiat currency is elastic by design, its quantity and cost can be influenced by policy in ways impossible under a harder monetary standard.

Gold, by contrast, tends to sit outside these interventions. It has no central bank, no earnings calls, no quarterly guidance, and no committee meeting determining whether more should exist next month. Its supply grows slowly and imperfectly, constrained by geology, extraction costs, and physical reality. That makes it an unusually useful measuring stick for long-term comparisons.

Looking through gold lenses therefore reveals something often obscured in conventional discussions of inflation. Inflation is not merely a rise in consumer prices; it is also a reflection of changes in the value of money itself. When a cup of coffee costs twice as many dollars as it once did, part of the story may involve wages, scarcity, labor, or quality improvements. But part also reflects what has happened to the purchasing power of the US dollar.

Seen this way, gold offers a perspective on economic interventionism not through ideology, but simple observation. One need not believe every monetary expansion is catastrophic or every government program misguided to recognize that decades of fiscal deficits, central bank balance sheet expansions, emergency lending facilities, and recurring crises leave fingerprints on currency values. Gold, over long periods, often captures those fingerprints more clearly than nominal prices alone.

None of this means that gold is perfect. Nor does pricing the world in gold solve the practical reality that we live in dollar-denominated economies. Salaries are paid in dollars, taxes collected in dollars, mortgages serviced in dollars, and grocery bills settled in dollars.

Still, there is intellectual value in periodically stepping outside the “fiat frame.” Looking at the world through gold lenses can expose how much of what we perceive as rising prosperity is nominal rather than real, how much apparent price instability reflects monetary instability, and how intervention in the financial system accumulates consequences over time.

For much of history, gold served simultaneously as a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account. Prices were quoted in terms of gold itself, not currencies redeemable only by confidence and legal tender laws. That world is gone, at least for now. Whatever one’s views on whether it should return, there is little evidence that advanced economies are likely to re-anchor themselves to gold anytime soon.

Until or unless that changes, we will continue to live in a fiat world, navigating its opportunities and distortions alike. In such a world, gold may not tell us what to do, nor does it offer a promissory answer to every financial question. But it can help us protect ourselves against uncertainty, shield against falling purchasing power, and tell us something valuable: what our money, and the policies shaping it, have quietly been doing all along.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

The post A Brief History of Prices Through Gold Lenses appeared first on Top Rated Gold IRA Company - Goldco Precious Metals.

When you’re looking to buy a car, do you search for a car that will transport you reliably for years with minimal upkeep, or would you settle for a lemon with a loud rattle and blue smoke coming from the exhaust?

When you go to the store to buy food, do you buy the highest quality food you can, or would you settle for wilted lettuce, slightly moldy fruit, and graying meat?

If you won’t settle for anything less than the best when it comes to your house, car, or the food you put into your body, why would you settle for less when it comes to starting a gold IRA?

Gold IRAs can be a powerful vehicle for helping safeguard your savings, and in many instances funding a gold IRA can be done through rollovers and transfers from existing retirement savings.

Would you trust your hard-earned savings to just any gold IRA company, or do you want to find the best gold IRA company to do business with?

What to Look for in the Best Gold IRA Company

1. Reputation and Experience

The booming gold price has made gold IRAs a popular choice for many Americans to help safeguard their savings. That popularity has brought many new gold IRA companies into the market.

If you’re looking to spend $25,000, or $50,000, or even $100,000 or more to fund a gold IRA, wouldn’t you want to make sure that the gold IRA company you’re dealing with has years of experience, thousands of 5-star reviews, and a reputation for doing everything it can to make sure its customers are satisfied?

2. Customer Service and Support

The best gold IRA company is one that not only walks with you every step of the way during the process of starting your gold IRA, but that also supports you after you have made your purchase of gold for your gold IRA.

There are many companies that will gladly take your money, sell you gold, and you’ll never hear from them again. But the best gold IRA companies will offer dedicated after-sale support to their customers, ensuring that their customers remain satisfied even years after their purchase.

3. Rollover and Transfer Support

Many gold IRA customers choose to fund their gold IRAs through rollovers or transfers from existing retirement accounts such as a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, or IRA account.

If you’ve never been through the 401(k) rollover or IRA transfer process before, it can seem daunting, especially if you have to navigate the process on your own.

The best gold IRA companies will walk you through the process, making sure that you know exactly what you need to do, who you need to contact, and ensuring that your rollover funds make it to your gold IRA in a timely manner.

4. Fees and Transparency

Gold IRAs cost money, whether it’s for annual administration, secure storage, or insurance. The best gold IRA companies will be up front about those fees and how much you can be expected to pay each year.

You don’t want to go through the whole process of choosing a gold IRA partner, deciding on a gold IRA custodian, and thinking about the gold you want to add to your gold IRA, only to find out at the last minute that you’re on the hook for fees that weren’t disclosed to you before.

5. Buyback Policies

When you buy gold for your gold IRA, presumably you hope to sell it at some point in the future, and hopefully for a gain. The best gold IRA companies will offer some sort of buyback policy, so that you’ll have the assurance that you can find a buyer for your gold when you decide to sell.

The best gold IRA companies also won’t lock you into a requirement to sell back to them, ensuring that you can choose where to sell your gold in order to maximize your sales potential.

6. Educational Resources

Many people considering gold IRAs may have only recently learned that there is such a thing as a gold IRA. They may not know all the ins and outs of gold IRAs, how gold IRAs work, gold IRA rules and regulations, etc.

The best gold IRA companies offer educational resources to potential customers so that they can learn all there is to know about gold IRAs. And they continue to offer after-sale support to customers who have questions about their gold IRAs.

Why Goldco Is a Top-Rated Gold IRA Company

Goldco’s customers have consistently rated us one of the best gold IRA companies in the country. Here’s why:

1. White-Glove Service

Goldco prides itself on its white glove service, with dedicated precious metals specialists serving each customer from your initial consultation to the delivery of your gold. This ensures that the process of setting up your gold IRA and purchasing your precious metals remains as smooth and stress-free as possible.

2. Streamlined Rollover Process

Rolling over funds from one retirement account into a gold IRA can seem daunting if you’ve never done it before. Goldco’s precious metals specialists can assist you throughout that process, coordinating with custodians and ensuring paperwork is in order so that the rollover process goes as smoothly as possible for you.

3. Goldco Buyback Guarantee

Goldco offers a competitive buyback program for our customers, so that you won’t feel left high and dry when it comes time to liquidate your precious metals. Contact your Goldco representative for more details on Goldco’s buyback program.

4. Industry-Leading Reputation

Goldco has over 8,000 5-star reviews from our satisfied customers, an A+ rating from the Better Business Bureau, and has received numerous awards, including a 2026 Best Customer Service award from Money.com.

5. Precious Metals Educational Resources

From our Ultimate Guide to Gold and Silver to our numerous ebooks, our Beginners Guide to a Gold IRA, and our dozens of relevant and newsworthy articles, Goldco offers our customers a vast variety of educational resources from which they can learn more about how they can benefit from owning precious metals.

Want to Know More About Goldco?

With so many Americans expressing uncertainty about the direction of the economy, and worried about their financial well-being, it’s only natural that more people are starting to learn about how precious metals can help safeguard their financial future.

If you’re looking to secure your retirement savings with precious metals, why settle for working with a gold IRA company that is anything less than the best?

Thousands of Goldco’s customers decided not to settle, and they’re glad they chose Goldco. Whether it’s our white glove customer service, our vast array of educational resources, or our commitment to providing high quality gold and silver products, Goldco has worked hard to establish ourselves as one of the best gold IRA companies in the country.

If you’re looking for the best gold IRA company for your needs, call Goldco today to learn more about what we have to offer. We’ve helped thousands of Americans benefit from owning precious metals, and we’re ready to help you too.

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What do you think of when you think of silver bars? Do you think of large stacks of huge bars sitting in a vault, or of small bars changing hands at a coin shop?

Do you think of banks hoarding tons of precious metals in their safes, or of government minters buying silver to mint coins? While the US government does hold nearly 500 tonnes of silver, and while the government did recently add silver to its list of strategic and critical minerals, silver isn’t just a strategic asset for governments and financial institutions.

Silver can play an important role for individuals in helping protect their financial well-being. If you want to learn more about silver bars, and why owning silver can be so important, keep reading.

How Silver Bars Are Produced

• Casting
• Minting

There are two primary methods of producing Silver bars: casting and minting.

Cast silver bars, sometimes referred to as poured silver bars, are produced by pouring molten silver into a form or mold. Depending on the size of the mold and how they’re processed after casting, these bars may not weigh exactly the amount they’re supposed to.

For instance, the 1,000-ounce Good Delivery bars that are the backbone of the London silver market don’t have to weigh exactly 400 ounces, they’re allowed to weigh between 900 and 1,100 ounces.

This doesn’t mean, though, that you’ll pay a 1,000-ounce price for a bar that weighs 900 ounces or one that weighs 1,100 ounces. These bars will be measured on delivery and priced according to their actual weight.

Minted silver bars are normally produced from rectangularly-shaped silver blanks of a certain weight, which are then minted in a press in a similar manner to silver coins. The surface finish of these silver bars is normally smoother and shinier than that of cast silver bars.

Units of Weight for Precious Metals

• Troy Ounce
• Gram
• Kilogram

If you’ve ever tried to buy silver, you probably have noticed that most silver coins are weighed in ounces. More specifically, they’re weighed in troy ounces, not the avoirdupois or “standard” ounces that you’re used to in the grocery store.

An avoirdupois or “standard” pound weighs 7,000 grains, and is divided into 16 ounces, which each weigh 437.5 grains. If you own guns you’ll know grains as a weight, so one standard ounce weighs the same as about 2 .45 ACP bullets or 4 9mm bullets.

A troy ounce, on the other hand, weighs 480 grains, and there are 12 troy ounces to a troy pound, so that the troy pound weighs 5,760 grains. Thus while a troy ounce weighs more than a standard ounce, a troy pound is lighter than a standard pound.

But silver bars aren’t measured just in troy ounces. They can also be measured in grams or kilograms, which are popular measurements in Europe and Asia.

If you remember your metric system from high school, these are the same grams and kilograms that are used in scientific measurement.

Smaller bars are generally weighed in grams. Larger bars are normally weighed in ounces, with the 1,000-ounce bar being the standard for international silver markets.

While the many different units of measurement can make it a little difficult to compare sizes between metric and troy ounce-denominated silver bars, our handy table below can help you make comparisons between different sizes of silver bars.

Common Sizes and Weights of Silver Bars

Like silver coins, silver bars come in a variety of sizes and weights. Here are some common silver bar sizes you may encounter during your search for silver bars to buy.

The Good Delivery Bar and System

The Good Delivery system is a series of standards and rules established by the London Bullion Market Association to describe the physical characteristics of gold and silver bars used in the London precious metals market. The rules encompass not only the characteristics of the gold and silver bars themselves, but also set requirements for approved refineries and set up a number of companies as referees for the system.

Silver Good Delivery bars must meet a minimum fineness of .999 (99.9% pure silver) and must weigh between 900 and 1,100 ounces. Bars must also be marked with a serial number, a year of manufacture, their fineness, and the refiner’s hallmark. There are also a series of recommended dimensions for Good Delivery bars.

Any bars that don’t meet Good Delivery standards must be marked with NGD, for Non-Good Delivery. This system helps ensure that the bars that circulate in silver markets conform to a universally accepted set of standards.

Advantages of Small Silver Bars vs. Large Silver Bars

1. Small Silver Bars Are More Affordable

In absolute terms, small silver bars are cheaper than large silver bars. A 1-gram silver bar may cost you about $10, while a one-kilogram silver bar will probably cost you several thousand dollars.

For those with smaller budgets, buying smaller silver bars will allow you to buy more silver bars than if you were to choose large silver bars.

2. Small Silver Bars Can Be More Liquid

Silver markets are already highly liquid, with silver trading around the world nearly 24/7. But when it comes to selling the silver you own, you want to know whether there will be a buyer available.

Because small silver bars cost less, it can be easier to find a buyer for them when it comes time to sell. The number of people who can buy a $100 silver bar is going to be much larger than those who can buy a $10,000 silver bar.

3. Small Silver Bars Are Easier to Store and Transport

Silver may be a very compact store of wealth, but large silver bars can be bulky and heavy, with the largest 1,000-ounce silver bars weighing more than twice as much as the largest commonly available 400-ounce gold bars.

This means that those large silver bars can be very difficult to store and transport. Compared to large silver bars, small silver bars are easy to store at home.

You can have some tucked away on a bookshelf, some in your sock drawer, and some in your desk. And small silver bars are easy to transport from place to place in a purse or even your pocket.

4. Small Silver Bars Can Make Nice Gifts

If you have children or grandchildren whom you want to teach about the importance of precious metals in helping to protect and build wealth, a small 1-gram or 5-gram silver bar can be a relatively inexpensive way to introduce them to precious metals.

Disadvantages of Small Silver Bars vs. Large Silver Bars

Of course, there are some disadvantages to small silver bars too.

1. Small Silver Bars Often Come With Higher Premiums

One of the major disadvantages to small silver bars is that you’ll pay higher premiums versus the spot price of silver than you would for larger silver bars.

A 1,000-ounce cast silver bar is relatively  straightforward to produce. Just pour 1,000 ounces of molten silver into a mold, let it cool, then stamp it with a hallmark, serial number, and fineness, and you’re done.

With a small silver bar like a 1-gram or 5-gram silver bar you’re going to be minting that bar on a specialized press. To get the equivalent of 1,000 ounces of silver, that means you would need over 6,000 5-gram silver planchets or over 31,000 1-gram planchets, minting each one with specialized dies that you’ve designed and machined.

Silver bars are also produced in sizes as small as 1 gram, which are so small they can be easily lost, so they’re often placed inside a plastic holder with a specific bar code, QR code, or other certificate of authenticity.

The amount of work it takes to produce 1,000 ounces of 1-gram or 5-gram silver bars is a lot more than it takes to produce a single 1,000-ounce silver bar, and that will be reflected in a higher price per ounce of silver on the smaller bars.

2. Smaller Silver Bars Aren’t as Cost-Effective

That means that if you’re looking to buy silver at the lowest unit cost, buying smaller silver bars, or the smallest silver bars, may not get you the best bang for your buck.

When looking at small silver bars vs. large silver bars, you’ll want to balance your desire for liquidity and compactness with the ability to maximize how much silver your dollars can buy.

Advantages of Silver Bars vs. Silver Coins

1. Silver Bars Sometime Command Lower Premiums

Compared to silver coins, silver bars sometimes command lower premiums. While the savings per unit may be small, if you’re making a large silver purchase that difference in premiums could add up.

2. Silver Bars Can Be Stacked and Stored More Efficiently

Square or rectangular silver bars are more efficient at saving space than round silver coins, as they maximize use of corners. Stacking silver coins also generally requires buying coin tubes, some of which are round also and don’t stack as well as square tubes.

If you’re buying large amounts of silver, silver bars may stack easier and help you minimize the storage footprint of your silver.

3. Silver Bars Come in a Wider Range of Sizes

Among the most popular sizes for silver coins are ½-ounce, 1-ounce, and 2-ounce silver coins. You may occasionally find smaller silver coins, like ¼-ounce or 1/10-ounce, and the largest silver coins you’ll likely see are 5-ounce and 10-ounce coins.

Silver bars, on the other hand, are available in over a dozen different weights, measured in both metric weights and troy ounce weights, ranging from one gram up to 1,000 ounces. If you have a specific weight of silver that you want to buy, you might have a better chance of finding it in silver bars rather than silver coins.

Disadvantages of Silver Bars vs. Silver Coins

Silver bars have disadvantages, too, which is one reason silver coins remain so popular.

1. Silver Bar Holdings Aren’t Easily Divisible

If you buy large silver bars, you can’t sell small portions of your silver holdings, you’ll have to sell the entire bar. You might have to wait a while to find someone able to buy a 1,000-ounce silver bar, so it might be easier to sell off 1,000 1-ounce silver coins piecemeal over time.

2. Possible Authentication Issues

Depending on how large your silver bar is or how it’s packaged, the buyer may want to assay and test it upon delivery. That can add time and expense when you want to sell.

3. Lower Liquidity

If you try to sell your silver bars locally, local buyers may not be as familiar with silver bars, particularly from smaller or less well-known issuers, than with popular silver coins from mints like the US Mint, Perth Mint, or New Zealand Mint.

That could mean lower offers to buy, or perhaps buyers passing on buying your silver bars.

4. Need for Storage

Larger silver bars, while they’re still a compact store of value, can be harder to securely store at home. Especially if you have large silver holdings, that may require you to buy a safe or store your silver bars in a safe deposit box, which adds expense.

Silver coins can be hidden discreetly around your home.

5. No Numismatic Value

Some silver coins can gain extra value to collectors through rarity, condition, or other factors that make them more valuable than just their silver content. Silver bars don’t normally have that added numismatic value.

Common Questions About Silver Bars

How can I tell if a silver bar is real?: There are numerous ways to check if the silver bars you have are real. One of the first things to do is to check if the bar matches the published dimensions and weight.

Silver bars are also non-magnetic, so they should not be attracted to a magnet. Silver also makes a distinctive pinging sound when it is struck, versus base metals which have more of a thudding sound.

Finally, there are chemical tests that can be done by professionals, although these may damage your silver products.

But one of the best ways to avoid counterfeit silver is to work with trusted partners like Goldco who work with mints around the world to bring you guaranteed authentic gold and silver so that you don’t have to worry about possibly buying counterfeit silver.

What is the best silver to buy?: That all depends on your particular needs and how silver fits into your financial planning.

For some people, silver may make up a large portion of their portfolio, and they may hang onto it for a long time. Others may only want to buy silver as a short-term hedge against a possible economic downturn.

And other people may just want to hang onto a few silver coins or silver bars at home in case of a rainy day. How much silver you buy and the form you buy it in will be determined by how you plan to make use of your silver.

How can I keep my silver bars safe?: Silver that you buy with a direct cash purchase can be stored at home, in a safe deposit box or, if you’re making a particularly big purchase, can be stored in a bullion depository.

If you’re buying silver through a silver IRA, your silver bars will have to be stored in a bullion depository. Goldco works with experienced precious metals bullion depositories to ensure that our customers’ precious metals assets remain safe and secure.

What precious metals can I hold in a silver IRA?: Silver IRAs aren’t limited to just silver. These precious metals IRAs can also hold gold coins or gold bars, as well as platinum and palladium bullion.

What kinds of silver bars are IRA-eligible?: IRAs are only allowed to acquire silver coins or silver bars with a minimum fineness of .999 (99.9% pure silver). Using IRA assets to purchase silver coins or silver bars with a lower silver content that are not IRA-eligible would be considered a distribution of assets and could subject you to taxes and penalties.

Can I take physical possession of the silver in my silver IRA?: The silver in your silver IRA must be stored in a bullion depository, but you may take possession of that silver when you decide to take a distribution through an in-kind distribution.

Some companies claim that there is such a thing as a home storage IRA, which purportedly allows you to purchase gold and silver using IRA assets and store those precious metals at home. These types of arrangements have been explicitly banned by tax courts, and anyone attempting to start a home storage IRA could face significant taxes and penalties.

How can I fund a silver IRA?: One of the most popular ways to fund a silver IRA is through a silver IRA rollover. You can roll over assets tax-free from an existing retirement account such as a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, or IRA account into a silver IRA.

Goldco’s precious metals specialists have helped many customers navigate this rollover process. Contact our specialists to learn more about how the silver IRA rollover process works.

I already own silver bars. Can I move those into a silver IRA?: IRAs are prohibited from engaging in certain transactions, including IRA owners selling their property to an IRA.

This is why it can be helpful to consult with your financial advisor or tax advisor to go through the IRA rules and regulations in order to make sure that you don’t inadvertently end up making a mistake that could subject you to taxes and penalties.

How to Buy Silver Bars

There are numerous ways to buy silver bars, from going down to your local coin shop, frequenting online marketplaces, or finding established precious metals companies that can provide you with silver products.

Silver can be purchased as a direct cash transaction, allowing you to take possession of your silver and store it in whichever way you see fit.

You can also buy silver bars for a silver IRA, which allows you to own physical silver within a tax-advantaged retirement account.

Silver IRAs can be funded through tax-free rollovers from existing retirement accounts such as a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, or IRA account. And when you take a distribution from your silver IRA, you can take it either in cash or in silver.

As with any other asset purchase, whether you choose to buy silver bars is a decision that you’ll make after assessing your unique individual goals. Each person’s financial situation, time horizon, and financial ability can play a role in whether they buy silver bars.

Some people look to silver as an inflation hedge against inflation that remains stubborn. Others may fear a potential financial crisis, and look to silver as a safe haven asset, hoping it will perform in the next few years just as well as it did from 2008 to 2011.

And other people may just want to diversify their portfolios a little bit, just in case.

If you’re looking to buy silver, no matter the reason, it can be important to work with trusted partners who can provide you with the products and support you need.

Goldco has worked hard to make ourselves one of the top gold and silver companies in the country, and our more than 8,000 5-star reviews are a testament to the lengths we go to provide premium gold and silver products and exemplary customer service.

Our specialists have helped thousands of customers benefit from adding silver to their portfolios. Will you be next?

Call Goldco today to learn more about how owning silver can help you safeguard your financial future.

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For years, investors have been told to “buy the dip,” trust the system, and stay fully invested in equities no matter what happens. That strategy worked remarkably well during one of the longest liquidity-fueled bull markets in modern history.

But as of May 2026, a growing number of valuation signals are raising uncomfortable questions.

Chief among them is the so-called Buffett Indicator — a metric legendary investor Warren Buffett once referred to as “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

And right now, that indicator is flashing levels historically associated with extreme market overvaluation.

So, is the stock market overvalued?

A growing body of analysts, economists, and institutional investors believe the answer may be yes.

What is the Buffett Indicator? 

The Buffett Indicator compares the total value of the U.S. stock market to the size of the U.S. economy, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In simple terms, it asks a straightforward question:

Are stock prices growing faster than the economy that ultimately supports them?

The formula looks like this:

Historically, when the ratio climbs too far above long-term averages, future market returns have tended to weaken while downside risks increase.

During the dot-com bubble of 2000, the Buffett Indicator surged to record highs shortly before markets experienced a significant correction. Similar warning signs appeared ahead of the 2008 financial crisis.

Today, the indicator has once again climbed into historically elevated territory.

While no single metric can predict market movements with certainty, many analysts view the current reading as a sign that optimism may have outpaced economic fundamentals.

Why Valuations Matter More Than Ever

Valuations alone do not cause bear markets.

But elevated valuations can reduce the margin for error.

When markets are priced for perfection, even small disruptions can trigger outsized volatility:

• Slower economic growth
• Persistent inflation
• Higher interest rates
• Corporate earnings disappointments
• Geopolitical instability
• Expanding government debt

Each of these risks remains relevant in today’s environment.

Over the past decade, ultra-low interest rates and aggressive monetary stimulus helped push investors further into risk assets. That environment dramatically inflated valuations across equities, technology stocks, and speculative sectors.

Now, investors are facing a different reality.

Interest rates remain materially higher than they were during the easy-money era, borrowing costs have risen, and concerns about long-term fiscal stability continue to grow.

At the same time, market concentration has become increasingly extreme.

A relatively small number of mega-cap technology companies now account for a significant percentage of overall market gains. While these companies remain highly profitable, concentrated leadership can also create fragility beneath the surface.

If leadership narrows further or earnings expectations begin to soften, broader indices could become vulnerable to sharp repricing.

The Psychological Risk Investors Often Ignore

One of the greatest dangers during periods of overvaluation is complacency.

Late-stage bull markets often create the illusion that markets can only move higher. Investors become conditioned to believe that every correction is temporary and every dip represents a buying opportunity.

History suggests otherwise.

Market cycles are normal. Excesses eventually correct.

The challenge is that valuation extremes are often easiest to recognize in hindsight.

During the technology bubble, many investors believed traditional valuation metrics no longer mattered. Before the housing crisis, many assumed real estate prices could not decline nationally.

Today, investors once again hear arguments that “this time is different.”

Maybe it is.

But history has repeatedly shown that periods of elevated valuations tend to carry elevated risk.

What Happens if the Market Corrects?

No one can predict the exact timing or severity of a future downturn.

Markets may continue rising longer than many expect.

However, if valuations eventually revert closer to historical averages, investors heavily concentrated in equities could face meaningful volatility.

That reality is prompting some investors to revisit the role of diversification and defensive assets within a broader portfolio strategy.

Traditionally, assets such as cash, Treasury securities, gold, and silver have been viewed as potential hedges during periods of economic uncertainty or declining confidence in financial markets.

While these assets carry risks of their own, they are often evaluated differently from equities because they may respond to different macroeconomic conditions.

Why Gold and Silver Are Regaining Attention

In recent years, precious metals have re-entered the conversation among institutional investors, central banks, and individual savers alike.

Gold, in particular, has historically been viewed as a store of value during periods of monetary instability, inflation concerns, or financial stress.

Unlike fiat currencies, gold cannot be printed or created through monetary policy.

Silver, meanwhile, occupies a unique role as both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity used across technologies including solar energy, electronics, and advanced manufacturing.

That combination has caused some investors to explore precious metals as part of a diversified allocation strategy.

Importantly, precious metals are not guaranteed to rise during market downturns, nor are they suitable for every investor. Prices can fluctuate significantly, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

However, for investors concerned about elevated stock market valuations, inflation risks, or long-term currency purchasing power, gold and silver may offer diversification benefits worth evaluating alongside traditional financial assets.

Is the Stock Market Overvalued? Here’s the Bigger Picture

The question is not whether markets will fluctuate. They always do.

The real question is whether today’s valuations properly reflect underlying economic realities and future risks.

The Buffett Indicator suggests caution may be warranted.

That does not necessarily mean a crash is imminent. Markets can remain overvalued for extended periods. But historically, periods of extreme valuation have often been followed by lower long-term returns and higher volatility.

For investors approaching retirement, protecting accumulated wealth may become just as important as pursuing additional upside.

That is why many investors are beginning to look beyond traditional portfolios and reconsider the role of hard assets within a long-term strategy.

Final Thoughts

The current market environment presents both opportunity and uncertainty.

High valuations, persistent inflation concerns, rising debt levels, and shifting monetary conditions are causing many investors to ask difficult questions about risk exposure and portfolio resilience.

No asset class is without risk.

But in periods when financial markets appear stretched relative to economic fundamentals, diversification becomes increasingly important.

For some investors, that may include exploring gold, silver, and other precious metals as part of a broader strategy designed to preserve purchasing power and reduce overexposure to traditional financial markets.

Before making any investment decisions, investors should carefully evaluate their financial objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon, and consult with qualified financial and tax professionals.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Precious metals are speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

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• Beyond inflation hedging, gold is reemerging as “politically neutral collateral” for nations wary of reserve assets that can be frozen or sanctioned by foreign powers.  
• Unlike Treasury bonds or bank reserves, physical gold is no one else’s liability; it cannot be digitally erased, printed, or sanctioned out of existence.  
• Emerging economies and “middle powers” are purchasing gold at record rates to gain optionality and reduce vulnerability to external financial pressure without needing explicit geopolitical alignment.  
• While the dollar remains dominant, the shift toward gold signals a transition to a “Bretton Woods III” era where hard assets and strategic commodities outweigh the assumptions of frictionless globalization.

For much of the post–Cold War era, gold occupied a somewhat marginal place in mainstream financial thinking. Central banks still held it, investors occasionally rushed into it during crises, and jewelry demand remained strong across parts of Asia and the Middle East. But in the dominant Western policy imagination, gold had largely become a historical artifact: an inert legacy asset overshadowed by fiat currencies, deep sovereign bond markets, and a dollar-centered global financial system. That assumption now appears increasingly outdated.

Gold’s modern resurgence is often explained through familiar narratives about inflation, monetary expansion, or fears of currency debasement. Those forces certainly matter. But they do not fully explain why central banks have been purchasing gold at the fastest pace in decades, nor why nations on different continents with very different political systems and economic structures are converging on the same asset. Something deeper is taking place. Gold is reemerging not merely as an inflation hedge, but as politically neutral collateral in an increasingly conditional and fragmented global financial order.

The Shift from Yield to Survivability

The turning point was arguably not inflation, but sanctions. In particular, the freezing of roughly $300 billion in Russian foreign exchange reserves after the invasion of Ukraine fundamentally altered how many countries—even some US allies–perceive reserve assets. For decades, reserve accumulation had been viewed primarily through the lens of liquidity, yield, and exchange rate management. The Russian episode introduced another criterion: political survivability. Assets once considered unquestionably “safe” suddenly appeared contingent upon geopolitical alignment with the institutions overseeing the global financial architecture.

That realization reverberated far beyond Moscow. Countries with no desire to emulate Russia nevertheless absorbed the broader lesson: reserve assets held within another nation’s legal and financial system may not be sovereign after all. Treasury securities, euro reserves, and even access to payment rails like SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) increasingly appeared not merely as financial tools, but as instruments embedded within a larger framework of political leverage and strategic influence.

Gold differs in one crucial respect. It is no one else’s liability.

Money Without Counterparty Risk

A Treasury bond, indeed any sovereign debt, depends upon the fiscal credibility and political continuity of the issuing government. Bank reserves depend upon access to correspondent banking networks. Foreign exchange reserves typically rely on custodial arrangements inside foreign jurisdictions. Gold, by contrast, is a bearer asset. Properly stored and physically controlled, it exists outside the balance sheet of another government. It cannot be printed, sanctioned out of (or into) existence, or digitally erased. In a world where financial systems are becoming both increasingly integrated and weaponized, that distinction has acquired renewed significance.

And that explains the extraordinary pace of official sector gold purchases in recent years. Central banks collectively have been purchasing well over 1,000 metric tons annually, among the highest levels on record. Buyers have included China, India, Turkey, Poland, and several Gulf and emerging market nations. These countries differ enormously in ideology, governance, and strategic orientation. What they share is an interest in reducing vulnerability to external financial pressure.

Importantly, this is not necessarily a wholesale rejection of the dollar. “Dedollarization” is proceeding slowly but is not an imminent threat. The dollar remains deeply embedded in trade settlement, debt markets, derivatives, commodity pricing, and global liquidity provision. Rather, the shift toward physical gold is in essence a hedging process: countries are incrementally diversifying reserve structures in response to a more uncertain geopolitical landscape. Gold serves as insurance against fragmentation rather than a direct replacement for the dollar itself.

The Return of Hard Assets

This is particularly appealing to what might be called the world’s “middle powers:” states large enough to possess meaningful trade and reserve portfolios, but not powerful enough to dictate the rules of the international financial system. For such countries, gold offers optionality. It provides reserve diversification without explicit alignment. Unlike reserve accumulation in another nation’s currency, gold does not require trust in the long-run political stability, sanctions policy, or strategic intentions of a foreign government.

In this sense, gold’s role increasingly resembles what some economists have loosely described as a “Bretton Woods III” environment: a world in which strategic commodities, hard assets, and geopolitical alignments matter more than the frictionless globalization assumptions of the 1990s and early 2000s. Energy, food security, rare earth minerals, semiconductors, shipping chokepoints, and reserve collateral are all becoming more tightly intertwined with national strategy. Gold sits naturally within that emerging landscape because it singularly occupies a critical intersection between money, collateral, and geopolitics.

Yet there is an irony at the heart of gold’s resurgence. Gold’s enduring strength derives precisely from its relative political neutrality. Politicians, empires, and financial systems have repeatedly attempted to subordinate gold to ideological or strategic objectives. Monarchs debased coinage. Governments suspended convertibility during wars. Central banks managed gold pools and fixed exchange regimes. Politicians alternately praised gold, confiscated it, demonetized it, or denounced it as archaic. But gold itself remained remarkably indifferent to these changing political fashions.

Indeed, that apolitical quality may explain why gold has retained monetary relevance for thousands of years.

The Enduring Neutrality of Gold

The earliest evidence of gold use dates back more than 5,000 years to ancient Mesopotamia and Egypt, where it emerged not merely as ornamentation, but as a durable and widely recognized store of value. Across civilizations separated by geography, language, religion, and political structure,gold repeatedly gravitated toward monetary and financial functions. This was not because rulers universally preferred restraint or monetary discipline. More often, it was because gold possessed characteristics that made it difficult to manipulate relative to purely political forms of money: scarcity, durability, divisibility, portability, and broad recognizability.

That history matters today because the modern global economy is again entering a period of strategic uncertainty. The assumptions underpinning the hyper-globalized financial order–stable reserve relationships, politically neutral payment systems, and universally trusted institutions–no longer appear as permanent as they once did. In such an environment, gold’s appeal extends beyond inflation hedging or commodity speculation. It increasingly represents a form of financial nonalignment.

For all the sophistication of modern digital finance, nations still appear drawn toward an asset that requires no password, carries no counterparty risk, and ultimately depends less on political promises than on physical possession itself. That is not a relic of the past. It may be one of the clearest signals of where the global financial system is heading next.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

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• A record-high number of policy dissents and a leadership transition have created a “coherent policy” vacuum that historically drives investors toward precious metals.  
• Geopolitical conflict in Iran has weaponized energy prices, pushing the PCE index well above the 2% target and leaving the Fed caught between aggressive tightening and economic growth risks.  
• A long-term structural shift is underway as emerging market central banks trade dollar-denominated assets for gold to hedge against deteriorating fiscal conditions in advanced economies.  
• Gold and silver are currently reasserting their roles not just as commodities, but as essential “alternative anchors of value” in an era of institutional uncertainty and fiscal strain. 

The past several months have delivered a peculiar mix of signals for watchers of financial markets. Oil prices have surged amid geopolitical conflict, inflation has reaccelerated, and the Federal Reserve, once a model of carefully choreographed consensus, now appears divided and uncertain. 

Yet gold, long regarded as the market’s geopolitical barometer, initially lagged these developments, even declining during the early stages of the Iran conflict. That divergence is now beginning to close, and the forces driving it point to a potentially volatile period ahead.

To understand where precious metals may be headed, it is necessary to step back and consider the broader macroeconomic setting. The Iran war has disrupted energy markets in a meaningful and arguably historic way. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints, has pushed energy prices sharply higher. This has fed directly into inflation data. 

A Central Bank Divided

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, has moved back into uncomfortable territory, rising at a pace well above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Energy costs have played an outsized role, with gasoline and related spending surging.

This presents policymakers with a dilemma that is both familiar and newly acute. On one hand, higher inflation would typically argue for tighter monetary policy. On the other, the uncertainty created by war – combined with the possibility of slower growth as higher energy costs ripple through the economy – makes aggressive tightening risky. The result has been hesitation, and in more recent development, disagreement between the Fed’s top officials themselves.

Recent Federal Open Market Committee meetings have seen an unusual number of dissents, the highest in decades. Some policymakers favor rate cuts, concerned about threats to economic growth. Others want to remove any hint of easing bias, signaling vigilance by making clear that rate hikes remain on the table. 

This fragmentation matters. Markets rely heavily on central bank guidance to anchor expectations about interest rates, inflation, and financial conditions. When that guidance becomes inconsistent or contested, uncertainty rises; and uncertainty is precisely the environment in which precious metals tend to perform best.

The transition in leadership at the Fed only amplifies this dynamic. Kevin Warsh, confirmed by the Senate to replace Jerome Powell as chair, will inherit not a unified institutional leadership but a fractured one. Powell himself is expected to remain on the Board of Governors for a time, creating an unusual situation in which a former chair continues to participate in policy deliberations. 

This layering of authority, combined with heavy political pressure for rate cuts and a backdrop of rising inflation, complicates the central bank’s task considerably.

For markets, the key issue is not simply who leads the Fed, but whether the institution can present a coherent policy framework. If investors perceive that monetary policy is becoming reactive, inconsistent, or politically manipulated, confidence in the purchasing power of the currency can erode. 

That erosion does not necessarily show up immediately in consumer prices alone; it often manifests first in asset markets – in particular, in the demand for stores of value that exist outside the financial system. This is where gold and silver come into focus. 

The Gold Divergence and Demand Floor

The recent weakness in gold prices during the early phase of the Iran conflict puzzled many observers. However, part of the explanation lies in interest rate expectations. As the war pushed energy prices higher, markets began to anticipate that the Fed might keep rates elevated for longer. Higher real interest rates tend to weigh on gold, which does not pay dividends or otherwise produce income.

But that explanation only goes so far. Beneath the surface, a more durable force has been building: sustained demand from central banks. Over the past two decades – largely since the 2008 global financial crisis – emerging market central banks have steadily increased their gold holdings. 

This trend reflects a gradual reassessment of reserve composition. In the 1990s and early 2000s, a combination of stable geopolitics, strong US public finances, and low inflation made US Treasury securities highly attractive reserve assets. Gold’s share of global reserves declined during that period.

Yet that environment no longer exists in the same form. Geopolitical tensions have intensified, trade relationships have become more contentious, and fiscal conditions in many advanced economies, especially within the United States, have deteriorated. As a result, the rationale for holding large quantities of dollar-denominated assets has weakened at the margin. 

Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have responded by diversifying incrementally but persistently into gold.

The scale of the shift is significant. Central bank gold purchases over the past 15 to 20 years have more than offset the sales seen in the early 1990s. Gold’s share of global reserves has risen markedly, while the dollar’s share has declined from its early-2000s peak. Importantly, the process appears far from complete. Historical norms suggest that gold’s share of reserves could rise further if current trends continue.

This steady, price-insensitive demand creates a floor under the gold market. It does not prevent volatility – far from it – but it alters the long-term trajectory. When gold sells off in response to rising interest rates or short-term shifts in sentiment, central banks often step in as buyers. 

Silver’s Dual Role

Silver, while sharing some of gold’s monetary characteristics, introduces an additional layer of complexity. It is both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. Demand for silver is tied not only to monetary conditions but also to manufacturing, technology, and energy transitions. 

In a scenario where geopolitical conflict pushes commodity prices higher and disrupts supply chains, silver can benefit from both channels: its role as a store of value and its industrial applications.

At the same time, silver tends to be more volatile than gold. In periods of financial stress, it can initially decline alongside risk assets before recovering as monetary concerns come to the forefront. This dual nature makes silver particularly sensitive to shifts in investor psychology and economic expectations.

Looking ahead, several forces are likely to shape the outlook for gold and silver.

First, fiscal conditions are deteriorating. War spending, combined with already elevated public debt levels, implies continued pressure on government finances. Financing these deficits requires either higher taxes, higher borrowing, or some combination of the two. In practice, it often leads to a reliance on looser monetary policy over time. 

Even if central banks resist in the short term, the longer-term trajectory tends to favor policies that ease the burden of debt. This environment is historically supportive of precious metals.

Second, energy prices remain a key variable. The Iran conflict has already demonstrated how quickly supply disruptions can feed into broader inflation. If oil prices remain elevated, or become more volatile, the inflation outlook will stay uncertain. That uncertainty complicates monetary policy and increases the likelihood of central bank policy errors – another factor that tends to support gold.

Third, the internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve are changing. A divided committee, a new chair, and lingering political pressures create an environment in which policy signals may be increasingly inconsistent. Markets do not require perfection from central banks, but they do require coherence. When that coherence is lacking, investors seek alternative anchors of value.

Finally, the gradual shift in global reserve composition continues. While it is unlikely that the dollar will lose its dominant role in the near term, even marginal changes in central bank behavior can have meaningful effects on gold demand. This is not a short-term trading factor but a structural trend.

Conclusion

Taken together, these forces suggest that the recent breather taken by gold and silver may be less a sign of a fading bull market than a pause within a broader, longer-term adjustment. As gold “catches up” to the realities of higher energy prices, persistent inflation, and institutional uncertainty, price volatility is likely to increase. Silver, with its additional industrial dimension, may exhibit even sharper swings.

For the knowledgeable observer, the key takeaway is not that gold and silver move mechanically with any single variable, but that they respond to the overall coherence – or lack thereof – of the monetary and fiscal system. 

When that system appears stable, predictable, and disciplined, precious metals tend to recede into the background. When it appears strained, conflicted, or uncertain, they reassert their role. The current environment leans toward the latter.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

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If you asked people who know about gold whether it is a high quality liquid asset, you probably would have quite a few who would answer in the affirmative. Gold can certainly be produced to high quality, and it is a notoriously liquid asset.

But the term “high quality liquid asset” (HQLA) has a specific meaning in post-financial crisis financial regulation. And for the purposes of modern banking regulation gold is not considered to be an HQLA, while cash, US Treasuries, and even some corporate stock and debt instruments are.

For people who understand gold markets and gold price performance, this can seem puzzling. But given gold’s continued popularity and recent price performance, could gold eventually get added to the list of high quality liquid assets?

Is Gold High Quality?

When we think of high quality, particularly when it comes to metals, we often think of purity. The more pure a metal is, the fewer impurities it has, the higher the quality.

Gold can come in a variety of different purities, from raw gold ingots that have to be purified at by assayers, to 24-karat gold, which most people recognize as being the purest form of gold there is.

Gold bars and gold coins that are bought and sold every day around the world are often produced to similarly high purities. For the gold market, including both futures contracts and physical trading of gold bars, gold must be at least 99.5% pure gold (.995 fineness).

These high purity levels are also required for gold coins or gold bars that are acquired for people wishing to hold gold within a gold IRA. But in practice, most IRA-eligible gold coins or gold bars are minted or cast with even higher quality, with finenesses of .999 or .9999 (99.9% and 99.99% pure gold).

Most people understand that gold can be produced to a very high quality. But is gold also a liquid asset?

Is Gold a Liquid Asset?

When you think about liquid assets, you think about assets that can be easily sold for cash. Cash obviously is as liquid as it gets, but it’s an asset that many financial institutions want to minimize their holdings of, as it imposes storage and transfer costs and doesn’t offer any return.

As far as liquidity goes, gold is one of the most liquid assets there is, with gold markets operating nearly 24/7 around the world. Not only are gold markets widespread and liquid, but they’re pretty heavily traded too, with $361 billion of gold trading hands every day.

That liquidity in gold markets means that pricing is fairly transparent, and opportunities for arbitrage are relatively rare.

But now that we’ve seen that gold is both high quality and a liquid asset, can we say that gold is a high quality liquid asset?

What Is a High Quality Liquid Asset?

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, banking authorities sought to develop an international banking framework to shore up the banking system and prevent further such crises from negatively impacting the financial system.

Under the aegis of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a committee created by central banks of the G10 countries in the 1970s, a third round of Basel Accords was undertaken, which is commonly referred to as Basel III.

Basel III builds upon the first two rounds of Basel Accords, from 1988 and 2004, with the express goal of reducing the risk of bank runs and bank failures through setting international standards for bank capital requirements, stress tests, liquidity regulations, and leverage.

Among the key characteristics of Basel III is its introduction of a liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), which is designed to ensure that banks have enough of a reserve of high quality liquid assets (HQLA) to survive a 30-day liquidity crisis.

For purposes of Basel III, high quality liquid assets (HQLA) are cash or assets that can be quickly sold for cash or pledged as collateral with no significant loss of value. Basel III created three different types of HQLA: Level 1, Level 2A, and Level 2B.

Among the assets considered Level 1 HQLA are coins and banknotes, central bank reserves, and securities guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks, or multilateral institutions such as the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). This would include US Treasury securities.

Level 2A HQLA include other marketable securities guaranteed by sovereigns and central banks, and corporate debt securities or covered bonds that are not issued by financial institutions and that have at least an AA rating. These assets are subject to a 15% haircut.

Level 2B HQLA include many residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS), corporate bonds that are rated at least BBB-, and some shares of stock that are not issued by a financial institution and that are traded on exchanges. These assets are subject to a 50% haircut.

Noticeably absent from the list of allowed HQLAs is gold.

Gold’s quality and liquidity are well-known. In fact, during the 2008 financial crisis gold was a vital source of liquidity to institutions that held gold and needed to come up with cash quickly.

The London Bullion Market Association cites recent research that:

“…argues that gold meets the characteristics of a Level 1 HQLA, namely low bid-ask spreads, high volumes, relatively low volatility and negative correlation with risky assets during stress periods. The quantitative analysis shows that gold is highly liquid and, indeed, among the most liquid assets across a sample of top tier government bonds both on a long term and during a financial stress event. Gold generally performs similarly to a 30-year US Treasury bond.”

With that kind of data backing it, not to mention the fact that central banks not only have been massive buyers of gold but also hold more gold than they do US Treasuries, it remains curious that gold still is not listed as an acceptable high quality liquid asset.

If gold is good enough for central bankers, why should it not be good enough for financial institutions?

You could be forgiven for thinking that there’s some sort of conspiracy underfoot to deny the importance of gold to the international financial system, or to provide incentives for banks to buy government bonds which help governments spend more money, versus buying gold which doesn’t fund government coffers.

But whatever the reasons for financial regulators to continue to overlook gold, the push to classify gold as an HQLA is well underway, with both the LBMA and the World Gold Council pushing for gold to receive official HQLA classification. Will that sway the decisionmakers in Basel?

We’ll just have to see. But if gold were to receive HQLA classification, what would that mean for the average gold owner?

What Could Happen If Gold Were to Become an HQLA

If gold were to become classified as an HQLA, it would become one of the assets financial institutions could own in order to comply with Basel III liquidity requirements. No longer would financial institutions be limited to government bonds, corporate debt, MBS, or stocks.

Given the research LBMA has cited regarding gold’s ability to serve as a high quality liquid asset, a classification of gold as an HQLA could mean that financial institutions might in the future start buying gold to hold in their vaults. And that increased demand for gold could end up providing an additional boost to the gold price.

Much of the rise in the gold price over the past several years has been attributed to demand from central banks, who have been net buyers of gold for years. If a few dozen central banks buying gold can provide that much of a boost to the gold price, just imagine how much extra demand for gold could result from hundreds of international banks and financial institutions buying gold to hold to fulfill their liquidity requirements.

Put Gold to Work for You

Whether or not gold ends up being classified as an HQLA, it remains a popular safe haven asset for people around the world. Its recent price growth and numerous recent all-time highs have brought gold renewed popularity and attention.

Buying gold can be done relatively easily, whether you want to buy physical gold coins to store at home, or gold bars and gold coins to store in a gold IRA. Goldco’s precious metals specialists have worked with thousands of customers over the years to help them benefit from owning gold.

With over 8,000 5-star reviews from our customers and over $3 billion in precious metals placements, Goldco has worked hard to become one of the best gold IRA companies in the country. Get in touch with Goldco today to learn more about your gold buying options.

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When you think of gold bars, you probably think of Fort Knox, or the Federal Reserve’s subterranean vault in New York, with piles and piles of gold bars sitting stacked on rows upon rows of pallets.

But while the government does own hundreds of millions of ounces of large gold bars, gold bars that cost millions of dollars apiece aren’t the only options out there when it comes to buying gold bars. Gold bars come in a variety of weights to suit just about anyone’s budget.

If you want to learn more about gold bars, and why owning gold is so important, keep reading.

How Gold Bars Are Produced

• Casting
• Minting

There are two primary methods of producing gold bars: casting and minting.

Cast gold bars, sometimes referred to as poured gold bars, are produced by pouring molten gold into a form or mold. Depending on the size of the mold and how they’re processed after casting, these bars may not weigh exactly the amount they’re supposed to.

For instance, the 400-ounce Good Delivery bars that are the backbone of the London gold market don’t have to weigh exactly 400 ounces, they’re allowed to weigh between 350 and 430 ounces.

This doesn’t mean, though, that you’ll pay a 400-ounce price for a bar that weighs 350 ounces or one that weighs 430 ounces. These bars will be measured on delivery and priced according to their actual weight.

Minted gold bars are normally produced from rectangularly-shaped gold blanks of a certain weight, which are then minted in a press in a similar manner to gold coins. The surface finish of these gold bars is normally smoother and shinier than that of cast gold bars.

Units of Weight for Precious Metals

• Troy Ounce
• Gram
• Kilogram

If you’ve ever tried to buy gold, you probably have noticed that most gold coins are weighed in ounces. More specifically, they’re weighed in troy ounces, not the avoirdupois or “standard” ounces that you’re used to in the grocery store.

An avoirdupois or “standard” pound weighs 7,000 grains, and is divided into 16 ounces, which each weigh 437.5 grains. If you own guns you’ll know grains as a weight, so one standard ounce weighs the same as about 2 .45 ACP bullets or 4 9mm bullets.

A troy ounce, on the other hand, weighs 480 grains, and there are 12 troy ounces to a troy pound, so that the troy pound weighs 5,760 grains. Thus while a troy ounce weighs more than a standard ounce, a troy pound is lighter than a standard pound.

But gold bars aren’t measured just in troy ounces. They can also be measured in grams or kilograms, which are popular measurements in Europe and Asia.

If you remember your metric system from high school, these are the same grams and kilograms that are used in scientific measurement.

Smaller bars are generally weighed in grams. Larger bars are weighed in kilograms, with the 1-kilo bar being one of the approved sizes for futures contracts on US exchanges.

While the many different units of measurement can make it a little difficult to compare sizes between metric and troy ounce-denominated gold bars, our handy table below can help you make comparisons between different sizes of gold bars.

Common Sizes and Weights of Gold Bars

Like gold coins, gold bars come in a variety of sizes and weights. Here are some gold bar sizes you may encounter during your search for gold bars to buy.

The Good Delivery Bar and System

The Good Delivery system is a series of standards and rules established by the London Bullion Market Association to describe the physical characteristics of gold bars used in the London gold market. The rules encompass not only the characteristics of the gold bars themselves, but also set requirements for approved refineries and set up a number of companies as referees for the system.

Gold Good Delivery bars must meet a minimum fineness of .995 (99.5% pure gold) and must weigh between 350 and 430 ounces. Bars must also be marked with a serial number, a year of manufacture, their fineness, and the refiner’s hallmark. There are also a series of recommended dimensions for Good Delivery bars.

Any bars that don’t meet Good Delivery standards must be marked with NGD, for Non-Good Delivery. This system helps ensure that the bars that circulate in London gold markets conform to a universally accepted set of standards.

The average gold buyer, however, isn’t going to be able to purchase a Good Delivery bar, which at the current time would cost about $2 million or more. Still, you have a choice of what size of gold bar to buy, and you may need to choose between large gold bars and small gold bars.

Advantages of Small Gold Bars vs. Large Gold Bars

1. Small Gold Bars Are More Affordable

In absolute terms, small gold bars are cheaper than large gold bars. A 1-gram gold bar will cost you several hundred dollars, while a 1-kilo gold bar will cost you several hundred thousand dollars.

For those with smaller budgets, buying smaller gold bars will allow you to buy more gold bars than if you were to choose large gold bars.

2. Small Gold Bars Can Be More Liquid

Gold markets are already highly liquid, with gold trading around the world nearly 24/7. But when it comes to selling the gold you own, you want to know whether there will be a buyer available.

Because small gold bars cost less, it can be easier to find a buyer for them when it comes time to sell. The number of people who can buy a $500 gold bar is going to be much larger than those who can buy a $50,000 gold bar.

3. Small Gold Bars Are Easier to Store and Transport

Gold is a very compact store of wealth, and even a 400-ounce Good Delivery bar is relatively easy to hide. But these large bars are heavy and often require specialized transport to ship.

Compared to large gold bars, small gold bars are easy to store at home, hide in a tucked away corner of a bookshelf, or carry in your purse or even your pocket.

4. Small Gold Bars Can Make Nice Gifts

If you have children or grandchildren whom you want to teach about the importance of precious metals in helping to protect and build wealth, a small gold bar can be a relatively inexpensive way to introduce them to precious metals.

Disadvantages of Small Gold Bars vs. Large Gold Bars

Of course, there are some disadvantages to small gold bars too.

1. Small Gold Bars Often Come With Higher Premiums

One of the major disadvantages to small gold bars is that you’ll pay higher premiums versus the spot price of gold than you would for larger gold bars.

A 1-kilo cast gold bar is relatively  straightforward to produce. Just pour 1 kilogram of molten gold into a mold, let it cool, then stamp it with a hallmark, serial number, and fineness, and you’re done.

With a 1-gram gold bar you’re going to be minting that bar on a specialized press. For 1 kilogram of gold, that means getting 1,000 1-gram planchets, minting each one with specialized dies that you’ve designed and machined.

1-gram gold bars are also tiny, which means they can be easily lost, so they’re often placed inside a plastic holder with a specific bar code, QR code, or other certificate of authenticity.

The amount of work it takes to produce 1 kilogram of 1-gram bars is a lot more than it takes to produce a single 1-kilo gold bar, and that will be reflected in a higher price per ounce of gold on the smaller bars.

2. Smaller Gold Bars Aren’t as Cost-Effective

That means that if you’re looking to buy gold at the lowest unit cost, buying smaller gold bars, or the smallest gold bars, may not get you the best bang for your buck.

When looking at small gold bars vs. large gold bars, you’ll want to balance your desire for liquidity and compactness with the ability to maximize how much gold your dollars can buy.

Advantages of Gold Bars vs. Gold Coins

1. Gold Bars Sometime Command Lower Premiums

Compared to gold coins, gold bars sometimes command lower premiums. While the savings per unit may be small, if you’re making a large gold purchase that difference in premiums could add up.

2. Gold Bars Can Be Stacked and Stored More Efficiently

Square or rectangular gold bars are more efficient at saving space than round gold coins, as they maximize use of corners. Stacking gold coins also generally requires buying coin tubes, some of which are round also and don’t stack as well as square tubes.

If you’re buying large amounts of gold, gold bars may stack easier and help you minimize the storage footprint of your gold.

3. Gold Bars Come in a Wider Range of Sizes

Gold coins normally come in 1/10, ¼, ½, and 1-ounce sizes. Occasionally you may find smaller gold coins, like 1/20-ounce, or larger coins like 2-ounce gold coins.

Gold bars, on the other hand, are available in over a dozen different weights, measured in both metric weights and troy ounce weights. If you have a specific weight of gold that you want to buy, you might have a better chance of finding it in gold bars rather than gold coins.

Disadvantages of Gold Bars vs. Gold Coins

Gold bars have disadvantages, too, which is one reason gold coins remain so popular.

1. Gold Bar Holdings Aren’t Easily Divisible

If you buy large gold bars, you can’t sell small portions of your gold holdings, you’ll have to sell the entire bar. If you have a 500-gram gold bar, for instance, that’s about 16 ounces of gold.

You’ll have a lot easier time trying to sell 16 1-ounce gold coins than trying to sell a single 500-gram gold bar.

2. Possible Authentication Issues

Depending on how large your bar is or how it’s packaged, the buyer may want to assay and test it upon delivery. That can add time and expense when you want to sell.

3. Lower Liquidity

If you try to sell your gold bars locally, local buyers may not be as familiar with gold bars, particularly from smaller or less well-known issuers, than with popular gold coins from mints like the US Mint, Perth Mint, or New Zealand Mint.

That could mean lower offers to buy, or perhaps buyers passing on buying your gold bars.

4. Need for Storage

Larger gold bars, while a compact store of value, can be harder to securely store at home. That may require you to buy a safe or store them in a safe deposit box, which adds expense.

Gold coins, especially if you only have a small number of them, can be hidden discreetly around your home.

5. No Numismatic Value

Some gold coins can gain extra value to collectors through rarity, condition, or other factors that make them more valuable than just their gold content. Gold bars won’t ever have that added numismatic value.

Common Questions About Gold Bars

How can I tell if a gold bar is real?: There are numerous ways to check if the gold bars you have are real. One of the first things to do is to check if the bar matches the published dimensions and weight.

Gold bars are also non-magnetic, so they should not be attracted to a magnet. Gold also makes a distinctive pinging sound when it is struck, versus base metals which have more of a thudding sound.

Finally, there are chemical tests that can be done by professionals, although these may damage your gold products.

But one of the best ways to avoid counterfeit gold is to work with trusted partners like Goldco who work with mints around the world to bring you guaranteed authentic gold so that you don’t have to worry about possibly buying counterfeit gold.

What is the best gold to buy?: That all depends on your particular needs and how gold fits into your financial planning.

For some people, gold may make up a large portion of their portfolio, and they may hang onto it for a long time. Others may only want to buy gold as a short-term hedge against a possible economic downturn.

And other people may just want to hang onto a few gold coins or gold bars at home in case of a rainy day. How much gold you buy and the form you buy it in will be determined by how you plan to make use of your gold.

How can I keep my gold bars safe?: Gold that you buy with a direct cash purchase can be stored at home, in a safe deposit box or, if you’re making a particularly big purchase, can be stored in a bullion depository.

If you’re buying gold through a gold IRA, your gold bars will have to be stored in a bullion depository. Goldco works with experienced precious metals bullion depositories to ensure that our customers’ precious metals assets remain safe and secure.

What precious metals can I hold in a gold IRA?: Gold IRAs aren’t limited to just gold. They can also hold silver coins or silver bars, as well as platinum and palladium bullion.

What kinds of gold bars are IRA-eligible?: IRAs are only allowed to acquire gold coins or gold bars with a minimum fineness of .995 (99.5% pure silver). Using IRA assets to purchase gold coins or gold bars with a lower gold content that are not IRA-eligible would be considered a distribution of assets and could subject you to taxes and penalties.

Can I take physical possession of the gold in my gold IRA?: The gold in your gold IRA must be stored in a bullion depository, but you may take possession of that gold when you decide to take a distribution through an in-kind distribution.

Some companies claim that there is such a thing as a home storage IRA, which purportedly allows you to purchase gold and silver using IRA assets and store those precious metals at home. These types of arrangements have been explicitly banned by tax courts, and anyone attempting to start a home storage IRA could face significant taxes and penalties.

How can I fund a gold IRA?: One of the most popular ways to fund a gold IRA is through a gold IRA rollover. You can roll over assets tax-free from an existing retirement account such as a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, or IRA account into a gold IRA.

Goldco’s precious metals specialists have helped many customers navigate this rollover process. Contact our specialists to learn more about how the gold IRA rollover process works.

I already own gold bars. Can I move those into a gold IRA?: IRAs are prohibited from engaging in certain transactions, including IRA owners selling their property to an IRA.

This is why it can be helpful to consult with your financial advisor or tax advisor to go through the IRA rules and regulations in order to make sure that you don’t inadvertently end up making a mistake that could subject you to taxes and penalties.

How to Buy Gold Bars

There are numerous ways to buy gold bars, from going down to your local coin shop, frequenting online marketplaces, or finding established precious metals companies that can provide you with gold products.

Gold can be purchased as a direct cash transaction, allowing you to take possession of your gold and store it in whichever way you see fit.

You can also buy gold bars for a gold IRA, which allows you to own physical gold within a tax-advantaged retirement account.

Gold IRAs can be funded through tax-free rollovers from existing retirement accounts such as a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, or IRA account. And when you take a distribution from your gold IRA, you can take it either in cash or in gold.

As with any other asset purchase, whether you choose to buy gold bars is a decision that you’ll make after assessing your unique individual goals. Each person’s financial situation, time horizon, and financial ability can play a role in whether they buy gold bars.

Some people look to gold as an inflation hedge against inflation that remains stubborn. Others may fear a potential financial crisis, and look to gold as a safe haven asset, hoping it will perform in the next few years just as well as it did from 2008 to 2011.

And other people may just want to diversify their portfolios a little bit, just in case.

If you’re looking to buy gold, no matter the reason, it can be important to work with trusted partners who can provide you with the products and support you need.

Goldco has worked hard to make ourselves one of the top gold and silver companies in the country, and our more than 8,000 5-star reviews are a testament to the lengths we go to provide premium gold and silver products and exemplary customer service.

Our specialists have helped thousands of customers benefit from adding gold to their portfolios. Will you be next?

Call Goldco today to learn more about how owning gold can help you safeguard your financial future.

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Gold continues to attract attention as investors and analysts debate its long-term potential. Recently, a bold question has entered the conversation: will gold go to 8000 an ounce?

Some market commentators have pointed to extreme macroeconomic scenarios where gold could reach significantly higher price levels than today. For example, coverage from Yahoo Finance highlights analysis tied to Deutsche Bank suggesting that, under certain conditions, gold prices could potentially double toward the $8,000 per ounce range.

Naturally, this raises an important question: Is such a move plausible—and what would need to happen for gold to reach that level?

While no outcome is guaranteed, examining the broader economic landscape can help provide context around this type of projection.

What is Driving the “Will Gold go to 8000 an Ounce?” Discussion?

High-end gold price scenarios are typically based on a combination of macroeconomic pressures, monetary policy shifts, and structural changes in global financial systems.

In the Yahoo Finance article referencing Deutsche Bank, the discussion centers on conditions where gold could reprice significantly higher—particularly in response to large-scale currency shifts or changes in how global reserves are valued.

These projections are not consensus forecasts, but rather scenario-based analyses that explore what could happen under extreme circumstances.

Key Factors That Could Influence Gold Prices

While markets are inherently uncertain, several widely discussed themes often play a role in shaping gold’s trajectory.

1. Monetary Policy and Currency Dynamics

Gold is often discussed in relation to fiat currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar.

Factors that may influence gold include:

• Interest rate policies from central banks
• Expansion of money supply
• Long-term currency purchasing power

In environments where currencies face sustained pressure or devaluation, gold is sometimes viewed as a store of value due to its limited supply.

2. Inflation and Purchasing Power Concerns

Historically, gold has been associated with periods of elevated inflation or concerns about declining purchasing power.

If inflation were to persist at higher-than-expected levels over an extended period, it could influence demand for hard assets.

However, inflation trends can vary significantly over time and are influenced by a wide range of economic factors.

3. Central Bank Activity

Central banks around the world hold gold as part of their reserves.

In recent years, there has been increased attention on:

• Gold accumulation by certain countries
• Diversification away from traditional reserve currencies
• Strategic reserve management

Changes in central bank behavior can impact supply-demand dynamics in the gold market.

4. Global Economic and Geopolitical Conditions

Gold has historically been discussed during periods of:

• Economic uncertainty
• Financial market volatility
• Geopolitical tensions

In such environments, some market participants monitor gold as part of broader risk management or diversification discussions.

5. Supply Constraints and Physical Scarcity

Unlike fiat currency, gold cannot be created on demand—it must be mined.

Key supply considerations include:

• Limited new discoveries
• Rising extraction costs
• Long development timelines for new mining projects

While supply is relatively stable compared to other commodities, it does not rapidly adjust to changes in demand.

Is a $8,000 Gold Price Realistic?

The idea behind the question “will gold go to 8000 an ounce?” represents a high-end, scenario-based outcome rather than a widely accepted forecast.

In the case of Deutsche Bank, the $8,000 discussion is generally framed as a conditional scenario—one that could unfold if significant macroeconomic shifts occur, such as large-scale currency adjustments or systemic financial changes.

For gold to reach such levels, multiple factors would likely need to occur simultaneously, including:

• Significant currency devaluation
• Structural changes in the global financial system
• Sustained inflationary pressures
• Strong and persistent demand for physical gold

While these conditions are possible, they would represent an extreme alignment of economic forces.

It is also important to recognize that long-term commodity forecasts can vary widely and are subject to change as new data becomes available.

How Does Gold Behave in Volatile Markets?

Gold is often discussed as having characteristics such as:

• A potential store of value during uncertainty
• Sensitivity to interest rate changes
• A relationship with currency movements

However, gold prices can also experience periods of volatility and do not always move in a predictable direction.

For example:

• Rising interest rates can sometimes pressure gold prices
• Strong economic growth may reduce demand for defensive assets
• Market sentiment can shift quickly

This complexity makes gold a unique asset within the broader financial landscape.

The Role of Gold in a Diversified Portfolio

Diversification is a commonly referenced concept in financial planning.

Some individuals consider gold as part of a broader strategy that may include:

• Exposure to different asset classes
• Consideration of tangible assets
• Long-term wealth preservation discussions

At the same time, gold has important characteristics to consider:

• It does not generate income (like dividends or interest)
• Prices can fluctuate
• Market timing can be challenging

Any role gold may play depends on individual financial objectives and risk tolerance.

A Measured Perspective on Bold Price Targets

High-end projections—such as the idea that gold could reach $8,000 per ounce—are best understood as exploratory scenarios rather than definitive predictions.

When institutions like Deutsche Bank outline such possibilities, they are typically illustrating what could happen under specific economic conditions—not forecasting a guaranteed outcome.

These projections can serve as:

• Thought exercises about economic extremes
• Reflections of underlying market concerns
• Discussions around long-term monetary trends

Focusing on the broader context, rather than a single price target, can provide a more balanced perspective.

Final Thoughts

So, will gold go to 8000 an ounce?

It is a possibility that would likely require a rare convergence of powerful global economic forces, including shifts in monetary systems, inflation dynamics, and investor behavior.

While such a scenario is not impossible, it remains speculative and dependent on conditions that may or may not materialize.

What the discussion does highlight, however, is gold’s continued relevance in conversations about currency, inflation, and long-term financial stability.

Important Disclosures

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment, legal, or tax advice. Nothing herein constitutes a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any asset.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodity markets can be volatile and are influenced by a wide range of economic and geopolitical factors.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements and scenario analyses are inherently uncertain and may not reflect actual outcomes.

Before making any financial decisions, consider consulting with a qualified financial professional to evaluate your individual circumstances.

To Start Your Gold IRA Today:

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Protect your financial future with Allegiance Gold an Inc 5000 company– Your trusted partner in Gold and Silver IRA investments.

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Silver is back in the spotlight. With growing interest in precious metals and renewed volatility across global markets, a bold projection has captured attention: Bank of America suggesting that silver could potentially surge to as high as $309 per ounce in the coming years.

Naturally, this has sparked a key question among investors and market watchers: Is such a move realistic—and what factors could drive it?

While no forecast is guaranteed, examining the data, market trends, and underlying fundamentals can help provide context around this ambitious outlook.

What Is Driving the “Bank of America Silver 309 Price” Projection?

Price forecasts for commodities like silver are typically based on a combination of macroeconomic conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and long-term structural trends.

In recent analyses from major financial institutions, several themes have emerged that help explain why some analysts are considering significantly higher price scenarios for silver.

Key Factors That Could Influence Silver Prices by 2026

While markets are inherently unpredictable, there are several widely discussed drivers that could play a role in shaping silver’s trajectory.

1. Industrial Demand Continues to Grow

Silver is not just a precious metal—it is also a critical industrial material.

It plays a key role in:

• Solar panels and renewable energy infrastructure
• Electric vehicles and battery technologies
• Electronics and semiconductors

As global economies continue transitioning toward cleaner energy and advanced technologies, demand for silver in industrial applications has been steadily increasing.

Some analysts suggest that this structural demand could tighten supply over time, potentially putting upward pressure on prices.

2. Supply Constraints and Mining Challenges

Unlike fiat currency, silver cannot simply be created—it must be mined.

However, silver production faces several constraints:

• Declining ore grades in existing mines
• Limited new large-scale discoveries
• Environmental and regulatory hurdles

In many cases, silver is also produced as a byproduct of mining other metals, meaning supply is not always directly responsive to price increases.

If demand rises faster than supply, this imbalance could become a significant factor in future price movements.

3. Inflation and Currency Concerns

Precious metals have historically been associated with periods of:

• Inflation
• Currency depreciation
• Economic uncertainty

While inflation levels have fluctuated in recent years, concerns about long-term currency stability and purchasing power remain part of the broader economic conversation.

In such environments, some investors look toward tangible assets like silver as part of a diversification strategy.

4. Investment Demand and Market Sentiment

Silver markets can be influenced not only by fundamentals, but also by investor behavior.

Periods of heightened interest in:

• Exchange-traded products
• Physical silver ownership
• Retail investor participation

can amplify price movements, especially given silver’s relatively smaller market size compared to gold.

In past cycles, strong inflows into silver-related investments have contributed to rapid price increases.

5. Gold-to-Silver Ratio Dynamics

Another metric often referenced by analysts is the gold-to-silver ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver are needed to purchase one ounce of gold.

Historically, when this ratio is elevated, some analysts interpret it as silver being undervalued relative to gold.

If the ratio were to normalize over time—particularly in a strong precious metals environment—silver could potentially outperform on a percentage basis.

Is a $309 Silver Price Realistic?

The idea behind the “Bank of America silver 309 price” projection represents a high-end scenario rather than a consensus expectation.

Reaching such a level would likely require a combination of factors occurring simultaneously, such as:

• Sustained global demand growth
• Significant supply shortages
• Strong investor inflows
• Broader economic or monetary instability

While these conditions are not impossible, they represent an extreme alignment of market forces.

It’s also important to note that commodity price forecasts—especially long-term ones—can vary widely and are subject to change as new data emerges.

What Happens to Silver in Volatile Markets?

Historically, silver has exhibited both:

• Safe-haven characteristics (similar to gold)
• Industrial sensitivity (tied to economic growth)

This dual nature can lead to increased volatility.

For example:

• During economic expansion, industrial demand may support prices
• During uncertainty, investment demand may increase
• In downturns, industrial demand could soften

This complexity makes silver a unique asset that does not always move in a straight line.

The Role of Silver in a Diversified Portfolio

Diversification is a commonly discussed concept in financial planning—spreading exposure across different asset types.

Some investors consider precious metals like silver as:

• A potential hedge against certain economic risks
• A way to diversify beyond traditional stocks and bonds
• A tangible asset not directly tied to corporate performance

However, silver also carries important considerations:

• Price volatility can be significant
• It does not generate income
• Market timing can be difficult

As with any asset, its role depends on individual financial goals and risk tolerance.

A Measured Perspective on Bold Forecasts

High-end projections like the “Bank of America silver 309 price” scenario can be useful for understanding what could happen under extreme conditions—but they are not predictions of certainty.

They are better viewed as:

• Scenario analysis
• Long-term possibilities
• Reflections of underlying market pressures

For investors and individuals, the focus often remains on understanding the broader landscape rather than reacting to a single forecast.

Final Thoughts

Could silver reach $309 per ounce by 2026?

It’s a possibility that would depend on a rare convergence of powerful market forces—rising demand, constrained supply, and significant economic shifts.

While such a scenario is not guaranteed, the discussion around it highlights an important reality: silver continues to play a meaningful role in both industrial growth and financial markets.

For those exploring the space, the key is not just the price target—but understanding why such projections are being discussed, and how they fit into a broader financial strategy.

Important Disclosures

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Before making any financial decisions, consider consulting with a qualified financial professional to evaluate your individual circumstances.

To Start Your Gold IRA Today:

Download Your Free Gold IRA Guide | Open Your Gold IRA Account | Book Your Consultation

Protect your financial future with Allegiance Gold an Inc 5000 company– Your trusted partner in Gold and Silver IRA investments.

Buy Now	Buy Now

Act now and join the millions who trust gold to secure their wealth.

The post Bank of America Silver 309 Price: Could Silver Reach Record Highs by 2026? appeared first on Allegiance Gold.

• Republican-led states are increasingly passing legislation to recognize gold and silver as legal tender, signaling a growing skepticism toward fiat currency.
• Central banks in emerging markets are aggressively diversifying into gold to insulate themselves from dollar-denominated risks and sanctions. 
• Because the investable gold market is tiny compared to global equity and fixed income markets, even minor reallocations can cause significant price surges.
• Gold is re-emerging as a mainstream form of “financial insurance” with no counterparty risk, appealing to those seeking independence from centralized policy decisions.

In recent years, gold has reemerged not only as a financial asset but as a political one, supported not just by nations and central banks but increasingly by subnational governments within the United States. 

A wave of legislation across Republican-led states—including Georgia, Arizona, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Utah—has sought to recognize gold and silver as legal tender or otherwise facilitate their use in transactions and savings. 

These efforts are not, in any immediate sense, about replacing the dollar or reestablishing a gold standard. Practical constraints ranging from price volatility to the absence of transactional infrastructure make such outcomes unlikely in the near term. But as signals, they are meaningful. 

They reflect a growing skepticism toward fiat currency, a deepening sensitivity to inflation, and a broader shift in political and economic sentiment toward tangible stores of value. The legislative details vary, but the direction is consistent. 

Hard Money Legislation From The States

In Iowa, a House panel advanced a bill to recognize gold and silver as legal tender, while in Arizona, lawmakers have proposed measures allowing state agencies to transact in precious metals.

 Georgia has considered similar legislation, and Oklahoma has explored frameworks for treating gold and silver as money under state law. Utah—long at the forefront of such efforts—has already recognized gold and silver as legal tender and continues to revisit related policies, even as its governor recently vetoed unrelated fiscal measures in the same legislative cycle. 

These initiatives build on earlier moves in states like Texas, which established a state-run bullion depository in 2015, and Tennessee, which has studied similar infrastructure. Taken together, they suggest that the idea of “hard money” is no longer confined to academic debate or fringe advocacy, but is reentering mainstream political discourse at multiple levels of government.

A Global Flight to Tangible Reserves

This state-level activity parallels a broader global trend. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been steadily increasing their gold reserves over the past decade. The motivations are well understood: diversification away from dollar-denominated assets, insulation from sanctions risk, and a desire to hold reserves that are not liabilities of another sovereign. 

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the freezing of foreign reserves, these concerns intensified. While developed-market central banks often hold gold in the mid double digits as a share of reserves, emerging markets tend to be closer to the low- to mid-teens—a gap they have been actively working to close. China, among others, has been actively increasing its holdings, taking advantage of price dips to accumulate at scale. Even instances of central bank selling—often to stabilize currencies or meet fiscal needs—underscore gold’s enduring role as a reserve asset of last resort.

The Mechanics of Scarcity: Why Gold is Highly Sensitive

Against this backdrop, the structure of the gold market itself reinforces the long-term case. The total above-ground stock of gold is estimated at roughly 220,000 tonnes, with an approximate market value of $31 trillion, of which about $15 trillion is considered investable. 

This is small relative to global financial markets: combined global equity and fixed income markets exceed $270 trillion. As a result, even modest reallocations toward gold can have outsized price effects. Limited supply growth further amplifies this dynamic, as new production adds only marginally to existing stock. 

In this sense, gold’s appeal is not just philosophical or political, but mechanical: it is a relatively small, finite market within a vast global financial system, making it highly sensitive to incremental demand.

Beyond Safe Havens: Gold as Modern Financial Insurance

Recent events have complicated, but not undermined , gold’s role. The Iran conflict, for example, exposed some of the limitations of gold as a near-term safe haven. Rather than rallying consistently alongside geopolitical stress, gold prices have been influenced by competing forces, including rising real yields and a stronger dollar. 

This has led some to question its reliability in periods of acute crisis. Yet such episodes do not negate gold’s broader function. If anything, they highlight how its role has evolved—from a simple hedge against immediate turmoil to a more complex asset influenced by monetary conditions, portfolio flows, and policy expectations. The long-term bull case remains intact, even if the path is more volatile than in prior cycles.

What ties these threads together—state-level legislation, central bank accumulation, and structural market dynamics—is a deeper shift in how gold is perceived. It is no longer merely a commodity or a legacy relic of a bygone monetary system. 

Instead, it is increasingly viewed as a form of financial insurance: an asset outside the direct control of any single government, with no counterparty risk, and with a long historical track record as a store of value. This perception is gaining traction not just among institutional investors and policymakers, but also among households and local governments. 

The rise in retail interest in gold, alongside legislative efforts to formalize its role, suggests that inflation psychology has become more entrenched. Even if inflation ultimately moderates, the experience of the past several years has left a lasting imprint on expectations.

Importantly, these developments are occurring within a broader context of policy uncertainty. The Federal Reserve, navigating the dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, has faced challenges in balancing competing risks. 

Fiscal policy remains expansive, geopolitical tensions persist, and trade dynamics continue to evolve. In such an environment, the appeal of assets perceived as independent of policy decisions naturally increases. 

Gold, by virtue of its characteristics, fits that description. The fact that US states—entities operating within a dollar-based system—are exploring ways to incorporate gold into their financial frameworks underscores the extent of this shift.

The Pendulum Swings: A Shift in the Monetary Landscape

None of this implies an imminent return to a gold standard or a wholesale abandonment of fiat currency. The latter is occurring, albeit at a glacial place; the institutional, logistical, and economic barriers to the former remain substantial, but not insurmountable. (Indeed, many of the arguments against a commodity-backed money standard are erroneous, and prevailing assumptions about its historical performance are incorrect.) 

It does suggest that the intellectual and political pendulum is moving. After decades in which fiat systems were largely taken for granted, there is renewed interest in alternatives, or at least in complements, that offer protection against perceived weaknesses in the current system. Gold, as the most established of these alternatives, is naturally at the center of this conversation.

Conclusion

In that sense, the significance of recent developments lies less in their immediate impact on markets and more in what they signal about longer-term trends. The growing political backing for gold—spanning central banks, national governments, and now US states—reflects a reassessment of monetary and financial arrangements that had seemed settled. 

It is a reminder that confidence in any system, including fiat currency, is ultimately contingent and subject to change. As that confidence is tested, even incrementally, the role of gold as a parallel store of value becomes more prominent.

After decades in which hard money was largely relegated to the margins, the pendulum appears to be swinging, if gradually, back in its direction.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

The post The New Frontier: Hard Money For The States appeared first on Top Rated Gold IRA Company - Goldco Precious Metals.

Economic uncertainty is back in the headlines. From persistent inflation to elevated interest rates and global instability, many Americans are asking a simple but important question: Is a recession coming in 2026?

The honest answer is that no one can predict the exact timing of a recession with certainty. However, there are credible indicators and trends that can help investors and households better understand the current environment – and make informed decisions about protecting their financial future.

This article breaks down what a recession is, what signals economists are watching right now, and how individuals can think about preparing – especially in uncertain conditions.

What Is a Recession?

A recession is typically defined as a broad and sustained decline in economic activity. It can include:

• Slowing economic growth
• Rising unemployment
• Reduced consumer spending
• Declines in business investment

In the United States, recessions are officially determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which looks at a range of economic data rather than relying on a single metric.

Key Signals to Watch in 2026

While the economy does not move in a straight line, several indicators are commonly used to assess recession risk. As of 2026, a number of these signals are worth paying attention to.

1. Interest Rates Remain Elevated

To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively in recent years. While this policy helped slow price increases, higher borrowing costs can also:

• Reduce business expansion
• Slow housing demand
• Increase debt burdens for consumers

Historically, prolonged periods of elevated rates have sometimes preceded economic slowdowns.

2. Persistent Inflation Pressures

Although inflation has moderated compared to peak levels, many households still feel the impact of higher prices for essentials like housing, food, and energy.

Even “lower” inflation can erode purchasing power over time – especially if wage growth does not keep pace. This dynamic can reduce consumer spending, which is a major driver of economic growth.

3. Slowing Consumer Activity

Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. When consumers begin to pull back – whether due to higher debt, reduced savings, or economic uncertainty – it can signal broader economic stress.

Recent data suggests that while spending remains resilient, there are signs of moderation in certain sectors.

4. Labor Market Softening

The labor market has been a pillar of strength, but economists are closely watching for changes such as:

• Rising unemployment claims
• Slower job creation
• Reduced hiring demand

A meaningful shift in employment trends could indicate that businesses are becoming more cautious.

5. Yield Curve Inversion

One of the most widely discussed recession indicators is the yield curve. When short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates – known as an inversion – it has historically preceded many recessions.

While not a guarantee, it remains a closely monitored signal among economists and market participants.

So, Is a Recession Coming?

At this stage, the data presents a mixed picture.

Some indicators suggest resilience:

• Continued (though slowing) economic growth
• A still-strong labor market
• Ongoing consumer activity

Others point to caution:

• Tight financial conditions
• Elevated debt levels
• Lingering inflation pressures

The takeaway is not that a recession is inevitable – but that the risk environment is elevated compared to more stable periods.

For individuals and investors, this type of environment often shifts the focus from growth to preservation and risk management.

What Happens to Your Money During a Recession?

Understanding potential impacts can help you prepare more effectively.

During past recessions, various financial assets have responded differently:

• Stocks may experience increased volatility or declines
• Real estate can become less liquid and more sensitive to interest rates
• Cash savings may lose purchasing power if inflation persists

It’s important to note that market performance can vary widely depending on the specific economic conditions and policy responses.

The Role of Diversification

One widely accepted principle in financial planning is diversification – spreading investments across different asset types to help manage risk.

Diversification does not guarantee profits or protect against loss, but it may help reduce exposure to any single asset class during periods of uncertainty.

This is where some investors begin to explore alternative assets, including tangible assets like precious metals.

Where Do Gold and Silver Fit In?

Gold and silver have been used as stores of value for centuries. In modern portfolios, they are sometimes considered for their potential role in diversification.

Historically, precious metals have been associated with:

• Periods of economic uncertainty
• Inflationary environments
• Currency fluctuations

Unlike stocks or bonds, physical gold and silver are not tied to the performance of a specific company or issuer. This independence is one reason they are sometimes viewed as a complementary asset within a broader strategy.

However, it’s important to understand that precious metals also carry risks:

• Prices can fluctuate
• They do not generate income (like dividends or interest)
• Market conditions can affect short-term performance

As with any investment, suitability depends on individual goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

A Balanced Approach to Uncertainty

If you’re concerned about the possibility of a recession in 2026, consider focusing on fundamentals:

• Reviewing your overall financial plan
• Maintaining an emergency savings buffer
• Evaluating portfolio diversification
• Avoiding emotionally driven decisions

For some individuals, this may also include learning more about alternative assets and how they fit into a long-term strategy. If you want to learn more about alternative assets and why the inclusion of gold and silver could be a good fit for your portfolio, book your free strategy call with one of our experienced precious metals specialists.

Final Thoughts

So, is a recession coming in 2026?

The reality is that no single indicator can provide a definitive answer. However, current economic conditions suggest that uncertainty remains elevated, and preparation is a prudent approach.

Periods like these often encourage investors to think more carefully about risk, diversification, and long-term financial resilience.

For those exploring ways to diversify beyond traditional assets, precious metals like gold and silver may be worth understanding as part of a broader conversation—not as a one-size-fits-all solution, but as one potential component in a well-rounded strategy.

Important Disclosures

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Before making any financial decisions, consider consulting with a qualified financial professional to evaluate your individual circumstances.

To Start Your Gold IRA Today:

Download Your Free Gold IRA Guide | Open Your Gold IRA Account | Book Your Consultation

Protect your financial future with Allegiance Gold an Inc 5000 company– Your trusted partner in Gold and Silver IRA investments.

Buy Now	Buy Now

Act now and join the millions who trust gold to secure their wealth.

The post Is a Recession Coming in 2026? What the Data Says – and How to Prepare appeared first on Allegiance Gold.

During times of economic uncertainty, many people look to safe haven assets to help safeguard their financial well-being. For many centuries, precious metals such as gold and silver have been among the most trusted safe haven assets.

Precious metals tend to maintain their value or even gain in value during times of economic turmoil, when stock markets are falling and Wall Street panics. We saw this during the 2008 financial crisis, when gold prices rose 25% during the same period that stocks fell more than 50%.

But precious metals aren’t the only safe haven assets there are. US Treasury bonds are often mentioned as a safe haven asset, and in recent years new players have entered the market: cryptocurrencies.

Some cryptocurrency advocates believe that cryptocurrencies can perform as a safe haven asset every bit as well as gold can. Bitcoin, for instance, is claimed by some to be “digital gold.”

While Bitcoin was originally intended to be used as a circulating currency, its meteoric rise in price has led to it becoming a popular speculative asset. But is it a safe haven asset?

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin only hit the scene in late 2008 and onward, and have yet to experience a full financial crisis like the 2008 crisis, so only time will tell whether they will behave like safe haven assets during a crisis, or if they can perform in a similar manner to precious metals like gold and silver.

But in the meantime, people wanting to help protect themselves ahead of a potential recession or financial crisis have to make decisions now based on what might transpire later. If you’re looking at possible safe haven assets, which do you trust more: precious metals or cryptocurrency?

Advantages of Gold vs. Cryptocurrency

1. Gold Is a Tangible Asset

In our modern world so much of what we do is digital. Even if we go to the ATM occasionally to pick up some cash, most of our financial transactions are done digitally without ever touching physical assets.

While this can be convenient in our daily lives, there are times when all of us want the safety and security of something tangible. With your bank account, brokerage account, and retirement account all living online and holding assets that seem to exist only digitally, does it sometimes feel like your financial well-being is built out of thin air?

Gold can help you overcome that feeling, as owning physical gold coins or gold bars give you control over a real, tangible asset. If you own gold in a gold IRA, you can take distributions of that gold rather than cash. And if you prefer to make direct physical purchases of gold, you can have that gold delivered right to your door, where you can hold it in your hands.

2. Gold Is Universally Recognized

Gold is an asset that is recognized around the world. India and China are the world’s largest consumers of gold. China and Russia are among the world’s largest gold producers, along with Australia, South Africa, and others.

Almost anywhere you go in the world, gold is recognized as a store of wealth and a safe haven asset. Gold markets are highly liquid and operate around the world nearly 24/7.

This universal acceptance of gold makes gold one of the true universal assets.

3. Gold Is Highly Liquid

Because of gold’s nearly universal acceptance, there are gold markets operating around the world constantly. Gold is traded 24/7 around the globe, making it one of the most liquid assets there is.

Gold’s liquidity does come with the occasional drawback. In 2008, for instance, gold lost about 30% of its value over the course of the year at the same time as markets were tanking. That’s because people who needed to come up with quick cash were selling their most liquid assets to drum up money. Since gold is highly liquid, it was one of the first assets to get liquidated.

Thankfully gold turned around after that and went on to set record highs. But it’s a reminder that being such a liquid asset can sometimes be a double-edged sword.

4. Gold Is a Trusted Safe Haven Asset

One of gold’s most important characteristics is that it serves as a safe haven asset during times of uncertainty and fear about the future. We’re witnessing that right now, as more and more Americans are trying to buy gold in order to help protect their financial well-being and protect themselves against geopolitical and economic risks.

Disadvantages of Gold vs. Cryptocurrency

1. Storage and Insurance Costs

Storing gold could cost you money, as could insuring your gold holdings against loss or theft. If you own gold in a gold IRA, you’ll have to pay fees to your bullion depository to store and insure your gold, which will likely cost you at least a couple hundred dollars a year.

If you’ve made a direct cash purchase of gold, you may choose to store it in a safe deposit box, which will cost you an annual fee. Or if you choose to store your gold at home, you might purchase a small safe to store your gold.

While these costs may not be incredibly expensive, they’re still something you will want to take into account.

2. Gold Is Heavy

Gold is an incredibly dense and heavy metal, nearly twice as dense as lead. That can make it difficult to transport large amounts of it very easily (think tens of millions of dollars worth.)

Thankfully that’s not an issue for most people, for whom gold is actually a pretty compact store of wealth. $100,000 of gold coins can fit in the palm of your hand.

3. Gold Price Growth Is Slower Than Cryptocurrency

While the gold price gained 65% last year, that’s an unusually high rate of annual growth. And while gold has seen strong price growth over the last few decades, it pales in comparison to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which grew from being worth fractions of a penny in 2009 to over $100,000 in 2024.

Advantages of Cryptocurrency vs. Gold

1. (Some) Cryptocurrencies Are Highly Liquid

Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are highly liquid and are bought and sold on cryptocurrency exchanges around the world. They are traded in large volumes, and are even traded in futures contracts on major financial exchanges such as CME.

Stablecoins such as Tether and USD Coin, whose value is tied to the US dollar, are also used as sources of liquidity.

Smaller coins such as altcoins and memecoins that are thinly traded may have limited liquidity, and large purchases or sales can cause major price swings.

2. Cryptocurrency Is Easy to Store and Transport

Cryptocurrency can be stored in internet-connected wallets or in secure offline cold wallets. As long as the device they’re stored on remains operational, cryptocurrency storage is easy and secure.

While physical hardware cryptocurrency wallets can be easily placed in pockets or bags or on phones, and can be transported easily, cryptocurrencies can be moved around the world digitally far more easily, with transactions able to take place very quickly.

3. Cryptocurrency Can Appreciate in Price Exponentially

Over the past 10 years, Bitcoin has risen 16,000% in price, Ethereum has risen nearly 24,000%, and XRP has risen 13,500%. Even gold’s outstanding gain of 383% pales in comparison to those rates of growth.

Disadvantages of Cryptocurrency vs. Gold

1. Cryptocurrency Prices Are Highly Volatile

While many people look at the massive price increases of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, less attention is paid to the major downswings in price that have occurred throughout their history.

Looking at the history of the Bitcoin price, you can see that there have been numerous major price crashes over the years. There is also the cautionary tale of Litecoin, once touted as “digital silver” to Bitcoin’s “digital gold”, and which now trades at a fraction of its all-time high.

Overall, Bitcoin prices are three times more volatile than gold prices. While that can mean plenty of upside when prices are rising, it can also mean the potential for significant losses.

2. Cryptocurrencies Still Operate in a Legal Grey Zone

While cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have become more accepted over the years, they still operate in an uncertain legal environment. And in some areas like China, the mining and use of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are banned altogether.

In the US, the most pressing issues has been whether or not cryptocurrencies are treated as securities, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently clarifying their stance. While the current administration is crypto-friendly, this could change during future administrations.

3. Cryptocurrency Is Susceptible to Hacking

With Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being so valuable, they make a very tempting target for hackers. Whether through brute force attacks or phishing, cryptocurrency assets are at risk from digital thievery.

In the case of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, there is no chargeback option, so once your bitcoins are stolen, your chances of getting them back are low. This makes security a very important aspect of cryptocurrency ownership.

4. Cryptocurrency Relies on Electricity to Run

Cryptocurrency networks rely on electricity for their operation. From mining centers setting up in rural areas with cheap electricity to mine Bitcoin, to the servers that host exchanges, to the computers, phones, and point of sale terminals that individuals use to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, they all need electricity to allow cryptocurrency networks to operate.

In a natural disaster or other grid-down scenario, cryptocurrencies may not be able to to be accessed or used. While there are some workarounds, such as the creation of meshed local networks that can use cellphone networks or radio signals to use and transfer cryptocurrencies, the reliance on power is the Achilles heel of cryptocurrencies that puts them at a massive disadvantage against cash and physical assets such as gold and silver.

Comparing Gold vs. Cryptocurrency

Now that we’ve looked at all the advantages and disadvantages of gold vs. cryptocurrency, let’s look at a few of the key points of comparison that you may want to consider when thinking about gold or cryptocurrency as a safe haven asset.

1. Volatility
2. Use Case
3. Security and Storage
4. Performance During Crises

1. Price Volatility of Gold vs. Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency price volatility is significantly higher than that of precious metals like gold and silver. The volatility of the Bitcoin price, for instance, is three times higher than that of the gold price.

If you’re looking for price stability in a safe haven asset, you’re not going to find that in many cryptocurrencies.

2. Uses of Gold vs. Cryptocurrency

While cryptocurrencies can be used to make point of sale or online purchases, they’re much more commonly traded in a manner similar to commodities. They are seen today as assets and stores of value rather than as currencies.

Cryptocurrencies also can’t be used for anything other than as currencies or as digital assets, and they only exist digitally. Compare that to gold, for instance, which can be turned into coins or jewelry, flattened to create gold leaf, or used in numerous industrial and electronic applications.

3. Security and Storage of Gold vs. Cryptocurrency

Being digital assets, cryptocurrencies exposed to the internet are at risk of being hacked by anyone with an internet connection around the world. And once your bitcoins are in the wallet of someone in Romania, Russia, or Nigeria, good luck getting that back,

As a physical asset, gold is only at risk if someone can physically steal it. If you store your gold at home in a safe, someone has to break into your home and crack your safe.

If your gold is held in a safe deposit box at a bank, someone would have to break into the bank and force open the safe deposit box. If you own gold in a gold IRA, your gold is held in a bullion depository behind multiple layers of stringent security. And while you hear of cryptocurrency hacks all the time, when is the last time you heard of a bullion depository being broken into?

4. Gold Performance vs. Cryptocurrency During Crises

Gold has a long history of performing well during recessions and financial crises. During the 1970s stagflation, for instance, the price of gold rose at an annualized rate of over 30% per year over the course of the decade.

During the 2008 financial crisis the gold price rose 25% during the same period that stock markets fell more than 50%. And in the aftermath of the crisis, gold prices nearly tripled from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs, all while markets struggled to regain their footing.

Precious Metals vs. Cryptocurrency: Future Price Growth

Everyone wants to see their assets gain in value, and no one wants to see them lose value. One of the purposes of choosing safe haven assets is to help protect the value of your portfolio, by choosing assets that can maintain their value through times of economic turmoil, and that could help minimize losses to your portfolio.

Gold has been popular as a safe haven asset because its value increases over time and remains relatively stable. And gold’s price growth compares favorably with other indices over the decades, with gold having gained 9% per year since 1971, versus 8% for the S&P 500 and 7.5% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Cryptocurrencies, by contrast, have seen explosive price growth. The Bitcoin price, for example, grew by 9,000,000% in its first decade.

Many first adopters of cryptocurrency made huge amounts of money, and those huge price increases lured in many people hoping to get rich quick. But can cryptocurrency sustain those price gains?

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025, but it is currently trading 47% lower. And the history of the Bitcoin price is replete with huge gains followed by huge crashes.

If you’re looking for a safe haven asset to help safeguard your savings, can you afford to ride that kind of roller coaster?

Even more important is the long-term outlook for cryptocurrency. While cryptocurrencies may be popular today, who is to say that ten years from now something better won’t come along that proves to be more useful and more popular than existing cryptocurrencies?

At the end of the day cryptocurrencies are nothing more than digitized tokens that have value because some people now value them. But with less than 20 years of a track record, versus thousands of years for gold and silver, how can anyone know how valuable they will be in the future?

If Bitcoin were to fall in value to $100 by 2029, that would still be hugely more valuable than it was in 2009. And anyone who got into Bitcoin on the ground floor when it was worth fractions of a penny would still have ended up making out like a bandit.

But anyone who bought Bitcoin at $100,000, or even $1,000, would be smarting from that kind of loss.

Gold and silver have proven track records of performance during periods of economic uncertainty, which is why they have been trusted safe haven assets for centuries. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies don’t have that track record.

The next recession or financial crisis could demonstrate whether cryptocurrencies are able to behave as safe haven assets or not. But is it worth gambling your savings on unproven cryptocurrencies when you have the ability to buy precious metals like gold and silver which have distinguished themselves time and again over the years?

Cryptocurrencies have certainly made great strides over the last few years, but might we look back at them 20-30 years from now in the same way as we look at Beanie Babies or Tulipmania?

In short, gold and silver have a track record dating back centuries. Cryptocurrencies are a flash in the pan comparatively, and while they’ve shown great growth over the past decade, there’s no telling which cryptocurrencies will still be around a decade from now, or if cryptocurrencies themselves will even be around in a decade.

Even governments that are relatively friendly to cryptocurrency today could change their tune in a few years. And if governments decide to band together to suppress cryptocurrencies, the trillions of dollars poured into the crypto market could be lost forever.

How Gold and Silver Can Help Protect Your Savings

Many people today are looking to protect their assets, with fear of recession remaining high. With so many Americans remaining pessimistic about their financial well-being, they’re looking to safe haven assets to help protect them against what they fear the future may bring.

While some people may be tempted to try to make enormous profits from buying cryptocurrencies, is it really worth the risk of potentially huge losses? Particularly when there are assets like gold, which gained 65% last year and has gained 12% per year since 2001?

If you’re looking for a safe haven asset to help safeguard your savings, maybe it’s time to start thinking about gold and silver, rather than giving in to the siren song of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

If you want to add gold and silver safe haven assets to your portfolio, it can be done relatively easily and simply. Direct cash purchases of gold and silver can be done quickly, and the gold and silver coins or bars you buy can be shipped right to your door.

If you have retirement assets that you’re worried about, you can help protect those assets with a gold IRA or silver IRA. These precious metals IRAs can be funded with assets from your existing 401(k), 403(b), TSP, or IRA accounts, and rolling over those funds into a precious metals IRA can be done tax-free.

Don’t let your savings fall victim to loss from a weakening economy, a possible stock market downturn, or a potential financial crisis. Call the precious metals experts at Goldco to find out how gold and silver can help safeguard your wealth.

This article was originally published in June 2021 and was updated in April 2026.

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• Gold is no longer just reacting to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes or cuts; it is now pricing in the structural deterioration of sovereign balance sheets.
• The US is currently spending approximately $88 billion per month on interest alone—a figure that rivals combined spending on defense and education.
• Buyers are increasingly hedging against “fiscal dominance,” a condition where the central bank is forced to tolerate higher inflation or lower rates simply to keep government debt interest manageable.
• Gold’s global rally serves as a lack of confidence in the ability of advanced economies to separate today’s political spending from tomorrow’s monetary consequences.

Gold has always been sensitive to monetary policy, but the current move higher is increasingly about something broader and more structurally important: the growing entanglement of fiscal and monetary policy. 

Traditionally, buyers looked to gold as a hedge against easier central bank policy -rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, the prospect of currency debasement and the loss of purchasing power. That relationship still matters. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, and any hint of renewed monetary accommodation tends to strengthen gold demand. 

But today’s rally is being driven by a deeper realization that monetary policy no longer operates in isolation from the fiscal condition of the Federal government itself.

The Interest Expense Crisis

By the time gold prices broke decisively higher in March 2024, US gross federal debt had already reached roughly $34.5 trillion, reinforcing the sense that the metal was beginning to respond not merely to expectations about the Federal Reserve, but to the structural deterioration of sovereign balance sheets.

The fiscal backdrop is stark. The United States is now spending roughly $88 billion per month on debt service alone – the net interest on our Federal debt – amounting to about $529 billion in the first six months of the fiscal year, a figure equal to combined spending on defense and education over the same period. 

This is not merely a political talking point or a budget line curiosity: in economic terms, it means an increasing share of public revenue is being devoted not to current services, infrastructure, or investment, but simply to maintaining the existing stock of liabilities. Once debt service begins to absorb that much fiscal space, markets naturally begin to reassess the long-run credibility of the currency regime that stands behind it.

That is where the connection to gold becomes especially powerful for the educated layperson. Gold is not just an inflation hedge in a narrow, consumer price sense. It is also a hedge against policy regime uncertainty; in this case, the fear that governments facing mounting debt burdens will eventually lean on central banks, directly or indirectly, to make the financing burden more manageable. 

The Death of Central Bank Independence

This phenomenon is often described as fiscal dominance: a condition in which the needs of the Treasury begin to constrain or influence the choices of the central bank. When buyers suspect that monetary authorities may have to tolerate somewhat higher inflation, lower real interest rates, or renewed asset purchases in order to preserve debt sustainability, gold tends to benefit.

In our American case, that concern has become more salient because the lines between fiscal and monetary outcomes are now now more tightly connected than they were in prior decades. A large amount of outstanding government debt – the US debt recently crossed over the $39 Trillion mark – means that every increase in interest rates feeds quickly into higher Treasury financing costs as securities roll over. 

That, in turn, worsens budget deficits (the inability of taxes and other revenue to cover government spending), requiring still more debt issuance. The central bank may be theoretically independent, but the macroeconomic system itself creates feedback loops between fiscal strain and monetary consequences. 

A Global Crisis of Fiscal Credibility

The Congressional Budget Office now projects deficits rising from $1.9 trillion in 2026 to $3.1 trillion by 2036, with debt held by the public climbing from 101 percent to 120 percent of GDP, and rising net interest costs are a central driver of that path. Gold is responding not simply to today’s inflation prints and Fed action, but to the institutional logic embedded in those projections.

This dynamic is not unique to the United States, which is another reason gold’s global popularity has intensified. Across advanced economies, governments emerged from the pandemic period with larger debt burdens, structurally higher spending commitments, and electorates resistant to austerity. 

In Europe, Japan, and parts of the developing world, the same broad pattern is visible: slower growth, aging populations, elevated debt ratios, and political incentives that favor borrowing over restraint: “kicking the can down the road,” as it is often described. 

The Ultimate Hedge Against Policy Failure

The result is a global decline in confidence that fiscal trajectories can normalize without some form of financial brinksmanship, currency weakness, or inflationary accommodation. Gold, as a neutral reserve asset with no sovereign issuer, naturally becomes more attractive in such an environment.

Importantly, this does not require imminent crisis thinking. Gold can rise simply because the distribution of long-run outcomes has worsened. Buyers do not need to believe hyperinflation is coming; they need only conclude that the probability of persistent fiscal-monetary entanglement is materially higher than it was a decade ago. 

If deficits remain structurally large, if interest costs continue crowding out productive uses of taxpayer funds, and if central banks face increasing pressure to prevent debt markets from destabilizing, then the case for holding part of one’s wealth outside the fiat architecture strengthens considerably.

In that sense, gold’s growing popularity is as much a referendum on governance capacity as on inflation. The metal is increasingly pricing a world in which governments have become less able, and perhaps less willing, to separate today’s spending decisions from tomorrow’s monetary consequences. 

For years, gold largely took its cues from the Federal Reserve. Now it is taking cues from the broader fiscal-monetary nexus itself. That is a more profound and durable driver, and one that helps explain why the bid under gold has become global, persistent, and increasingly disconnected from short-term moves in policy rates and inflation reports alone.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

The post The Erosion of Fiscal Credibility (And Why Gold Matters) appeared first on Goldco.

• Over the first quarter of the 21st century (2000–2025), gold rose by 1,486.6%, significantly outperforming major stock indices.
• Gold’s value is now a strategic asset for central banks seeking to diversify away from the US dollar and manage sovereign debt risks.
• Contrary to early predictions gold is now a critical component in advanced electronics, aerospace, and computing infrastructure.
• While global demand from investors and central banks is accelerating, gold mine output remains inflexible and new discoveries are scarce.

At the dawn of the 21st century, the prevailing consensus was that gold had become a relic of an earlier financial age. The intellectual atmosphere of the late 1990s was defined by faith in fiat credibility, confidence that central banks had largely tamed the business cycle, and an almost utopian belief that technology-led productivity growth – dial-up modems buzzing in the background – had permanently altered the rules of finance. 

That mindset was reflected not merely in commentary, but in behavior. Governments were still liquidating official reserves into weakness; most famously in the episode later remembered as Brown’s Bottom when the UK sold gold near the secular lows around $250 an ounce. 

On May 17th, 1999, Larry Kudlow (then the chief economist of American Skandia Life Assurance Co.) wrote that:

more and more people are proclaiming that gold is dead, at least as an inflation hedge. If not for jewelers and dentists, no one would ever touch the stuff again. Clinching evidence for this view allegedly comes from the Bank of England’s decision to sell a bunch of gold. In all likelihood, so will the Swiss central bank and the International Monetary Fund. Question is, are central banks selling gold because the price is cheap, or is the price cheap because the banks are selling? I believe it’s the former. Even central bankers have figured out that a strong US dollar means no inflation. So there’s no need for an inflation hedge like gold, especially since it yields no earnings and costs money to store.

At the same time, institutional capital market assumptions and long-run return frameworks, heavily influenced by the recent triumph of equities, often treated gold as either a low-return inflation hedge or omitted it entirely. 

Historical return studies in that era frequently assigned bullion only token long-run real returns, reinforcing the idea that stocks, especially technology shares, were the only serious long-horizon compounders. 

A Quarter-Century of Outperformance

With equity valuations at extraordinary extremes and policymakers auctioning away reserves, the market was effectively voting that gold was dead. In retrospect, that moment now stands as one of the great regime misreads of modern finance. Since 2000, gold has not merely survived that obituary. It has comprehensively invalidated it.

Using the proper first quarter of the 21st-century window, from the final trading day of 2000 (December 29, 2000) through December 31, 2025, gold rose from $272.25 to $4,319.37, a gain of 1,486.6 percent. That far exceeded the Nasdaq Composite’s 840.8 percent, the Russell 3000’s 434.9 percent, the S&P 500’s 418.5 percent, and the Dow’s 345.6 percent over the same period. (The Russell comparison is especially important because the Russell 3000 captures roughly 98 percent of all listed US equities by market capitalization, making it the broadest practical benchmark for the American stock market.)

In other words, the asset dismissed as obsolete at the dawn of the century outperformed not only the broad market, but even the index most closely associated with the technological revolution that was supposed to make it irrelevant.

Those numbers are especially striking given the dot-com era conviction that technology equities had permanently superseded traditional stores of value. Over the past quarter century, gold has not only outperformed the major US equity benchmarks but also preserved purchasing power across multiple monetary regimes and repeatedly reasserted its value during episodes of institutional and geopolitical stress. 

Beyond the Safe Haven: A Strategic Evolution

The most important development, however, is that gold’s modern strength is no longer reducible to simple crisis demand. What has changed is a broader recognition that gold occupies a unique position at the intersection of monetary credibility, sovereign balance sheet risk, and the evolving architecture of the global reserve system.

The modern bull case is therefore broader and more structural than the classic safe haven narrative. Persistent geopolitical fragmentation, rising sovereign debt burdens, and the gradual reorganization of the world into competing economic blocs have increased demand for reserve assets that sit outside any single political or legal jurisdiction. 

Central banks, particularly in emerging economies seeking to diversify away from dollar concentration, have become major net buyers, creating a durable source of official sector demand. 

At the same time, private buyers continue to prize gold’s historically low correlation with both stocks and bonds, especially in an era marked by slower trend growth, policy uncertainty, and periodic questions about the durability of disinflation. 

Gold’s long-run capacity to preserve real value remains central to this appeal. Its ability to maintain purchasing power against housing, wages, and broad consumer baskets over decades continues to attract capital from investors increasingly wary of currency dilution, fiscal overreach, and the fragility of purely financial claims.

The Digital Irony: Gold in Modern Industry

What makes the current cycle especially notable is that gold’s demand base has widened materially even as supply remains stubbornly constrained. The metal is no longer merely a monetary asset or a hedge against institutional failure; it is also increasingly embedded in technology and advanced manufacturing. 

Gold’s conductivity, corrosion resistance, and reliability make it indispensable in electronics, computing infrastructure, aerospace systems, and specialized industrial applications. 

In a historical irony, the same technological revolution once thought to have made gold obsolete has instead underscored its centrality. Newer financial architectures are also beginning to incorporate gold and silver more directly, with some digital asset ecosystems and collateral frameworks using gold as a reserve layer alongside traditional sovereign securities. 

These developments create a form of structural demand less sensitive to short-term sentiment and more tied to the evolution of the financial and technological stack itself.

Against this widening demand base, supply remains notably inflexible. Mine output growth has been modest, major new discoveries are scarce, and the elasticity of production is low relative to the speed with which investment and central bank demand can accelerate. 

That imbalance leaves the market structurally susceptible to periods of persistent tightness whenever macro uncertainty rises or official sector accumulation intensifies. 

A Structural Shift in Global Finance

Importantly, recent price action suggests that gold is being repriced by forces deeper than episodic fear. It has continued to perform even during periods of strong equity returns, moderate inflation, and rising real yields, conditions that older frameworks would have considered less supportive. 

That resilience implies that the market is increasingly treating gold as a strategic asset tied to fiscal durability, reserve diversification, and system complexity rather than as a simple recession hedge.

The more salient point is that gold’s ascent now reflects a world undergoing deep transition rather than a market merely reacting to periodic crises. The early-2000s assumption that digitization and central bank credibility had rendered bullion irrelevant has been utterly inverted. 

The same forces of technological expansion, geopolitical fragmentation, sovereign debt growth, and institutional complexity have instead broadened gold’s use case and strengthened its strategic role. 

Conclusion

Unless the underlying trends of fiscal strain, reserve rebalancing, and constrained supply reverse in a meaningful way, gold’s position in global portfolios and official reserves is likely to remain not only durable, but increasingly central to the ways in which buyers and policymakers think about resilience itself .

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

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As a trustee of the Trump Organization and an experienced global dealmaker, Donald Trump Jr. leverages his expertise to advocate for asset diversification. He believes the wealth-protection strategies used by the world’s most successful individuals should be accessible to all Americans.

“Owning physical gold and silver is a time-honored strategy that has helped generations safeguard their wealth.” said Donald Trump Jr. “I chose to, once again, partner with Goldco because of their unwavering commitment to their customers. Their ‘white-glove’ service, track record of excellence and the best industry promotions are why I trust them to help Americans protect their retirement savings.”

Goldco has earned a reputation for excellence, backed by more than 8,000 five-star reviews from satisfied customers. The company specializes in helping individuals hedge against economic volatility and inflation by owning precious metals.

“We’re honored to partner with Donald Trump Jr.,” said Goldco Founder Trevor Gerszt. “His commitment to financial independence aligns perfectly with our mission to help people secure their futures through gold and silver.”

For more information about the partnership and how to secure your financial future, please visit goldco.com.

About Goldco

Goldco is a privately held company with over a decade of experience in helping customers protect their retirement savings. Whether you want to diversify your retirement savings into a precious metals IRA or buy gold and silver directly, a Goldco specialist can help assist every step of the way.

The company’s long-standing reputation for excellent customer service, high ethical standards, along with precious metals education and resources position Goldco as a preferred precious metals provider. With over 8,000 5-Star customer reviews, numerous awards and the highest industry buy back guarantee, Goldco has set the standard for buying precious metals.

Goldco is rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and Triple A by Business Consumer Alliance. 

To learn more, visit goldco.com.

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While the additions of copper and uranium drew early attention, analysts say silver’s inclusion reflects a broader recognition of its strategic role in the global economy.

Unlike gold, which is largely held as a financial asset, most silver is consumed in industrial applications. The metal is widely used in solar panels, semiconductors, smartphones, flat-screen displays, electric vehicles, medical devices, and other electronic components due to its unmatched electrical conductivity and thermal efficiency.

“Silver’s inclusion on the critical minerals list is not dramatic, it is economically logical, and arguably overdue.” says Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and Senior Research Fellow at AIRE.

Mr. Earle continues, “This policy shift underscores the evolving narrative surrounding precious metals. Long known for its monetary history, silver has increasingly become indispensable to modern industry, placing it at the intersection of economic security, technological innovation, and global supply chains.”

Global silver production has failed to meet demand for five consecutive years, driven by rapid expansion in renewable energy and high-tech sectors. Solar photovoltaic manufacturing has become one of the largest sources of demand, while electrification trends and expanding data infrastructure are expected to sustain consumption.

Supply concentration is also drawing increased attention. Industry observers estimate that China controls roughly 70 percent of the world’s refined silver supply and implemented export-control protocols covering silver beginning January 1, 2026. The United States imports a significant share of its silver, leaving domestic manufacturers exposed to potential supply disruptions.

As interest in silver accelerates, Goldco, a leading precious metals provider, continues to expand its offerings to meet growing demand. Most recently, Goldco has brought these new silver coins to market:

• Silver Space Shuttle Coin, celebrating American innovation and space exploration
• Silver Defenders of Liberty Sea Edition, honoring naval strength and maritime freedom
• Silver HMS Belfast Coin, commemorating one of the most iconic warships in modern history

Goldco helps everyday Americans diversify their portfolios with gold and silver through Precious Metals IRAs or direct purchases designed to help hedge against economic volatility.

The company offers a wide selection of silver coins from mints around the world, many of which honor U.S. military service members or celebrate the technological and industrial achievements that have shaped the American economy.

Goldco has been recognized by Money.com for four consecutive years as Best Customer Service among Gold IRA companies and earned the 2025 Bronze Stevie® Award for Fastest Growing Company It has also ranked on the Inc 5000 list of Fastest Growing Companies nine times. Most notably, Goldco has surpassed a major industry milestone, earning more than 8,000 five-star reviews.

For more information about purchasing silver or opening a Precious Metals IRA, visit goldco.com or call (855) 450-1394.

About Goldco:

Goldco is a privately held company with over a decade of experience in helping customers protect their retirement savings. Whether you want to diversify your retirement savings into a precious metals IRA or buy gold and silver directly, a Goldco specialist can help assist every step of the way.

The company’s long-standing reputation for excellent customer service, high ethical standards, along with precious metals education and resources position Goldco as a preferred precious metals provider. With over 8,000 5-Star customer reviews, numerous awards and the highest industry buy back guarantee, Goldco has set the standard for buying precious metals.

Goldco is rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and Triple A by Business Consumer Alliance

The post U.S. Adds Silver to Critical Minerals List as Demand Surges and Supply Risks Grow appeared first on Goldco.

Even more unusual is the number of articles that have spoken of how the gold price is falling due to rising fear of inflation. But isn’t gold supposed to be an inflation hedge?

Shouldn’t fear of higher inflation cause people to buy more gold, and shouldn’t that push the gold price higher?

If gold prices are falling when inflation fears are rising, what does that say about gold as a safe haven asset and inflation hedge?

As we’ll show you soon, higher inflation doesn’t always mean that gold prices will rise, at least not in the short term. But if you’re worried about gold prices continuing to fall due to inflation fears, here’s why all may not be doom and gloom.

Gold’s History Versus Inflation

Gold has a reputation for being an effective inflation hedge, and for good reason. Gold tends to grow in value and maintain its purchasing power over time.

During the 1970s, for instance, the gold price grew at an annualized rate of over 30% per year over the course of the decade, far outpacing inflation that peaked at over 13% in 1979. In fact, since 1971 the gold price has risen nearly 12,000%, while the US dollar has lost 88% of its value since that time.

So if gold has such great performance against the dollar against inflation over long periods of time, why is the gold price falling today?

Gold and Monetary Policy

What many people are looking at when inflation figures are reported today is not how gold will do, but what the Federal Reserve will do.

The Fed has currently paused the rate cuts it began in September 2024, with its last rate cut coming in December 2025. While markets expect the Fed to make at least two more rate cuts this year, rate cuts will be dependent on what kind of data the Fed is seeing.

In order for the Fed to cut rates, the type of data it would want to see includes: lower GDP growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation.

Lower GDP growth and higher unemployment are self-explanatory, as they would be indicators of a slowing economy, and rate cuts would presumably stimulate economic activity to boost GDP and employment.

Because inflation got out of control in 2022, with the highest inflation rates in 40 years, the Fed is a little gun-shy right now. Fed policymakers don’t want to cut rates too much and push inflation higher.

However, inflation rates are showing signs of increasing again. Recent producer price index (PPI) data showed an 0.7% month to month increase, which equates to an annualized 8.7% inflation rate.

That data came from before the war against Iran, which has pushed oil prices higher and which could result in rising prices throughout the economy as oil and gas prices remain high. So the fact that prices were already rising and now could rise higher is seen as a major reason for the Fed NOT to continue cutting interest rates.

Because lower interest rates are generally seen as being good for gold, we have the paradox that higher inflation, which would normally be good for gold prices, is being seen as bad because this higher inflation might prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates, which is what markets had been expecting and which were thought to be good for gold.

Is it frustrating for gold owners and gold buyers to see economic data that makes the case for gold actually being bad for gold prices in the short term? Yes, there’s no doubt about that.

But as the history of gold prices over the long term has shown, gold has the ability to shrug off short-term price dips and price volatility in order to make significant price growth over the long term.

Why Falling Gold Prices Could Be a Good Thing

If you owned gold when it hit record highs well above $5,000 an ounce, recent price drops may have gotten you down. But that’s alright, these price drops actually may not be all bad.

For one thing, they’re a reminder that gold is an incredibly liquid asset, which is one of its draws. Gold markets are highly liquid and operate around the world nearly 24/7.

When people need liquidity, gold is sometimes one of the first assets they sell, such as recently when fears of the impact of the war against Iran are causing some distress and uncertainty in financial markets.

We saw this during 2008 as well, as liquidity concerns led to a selloff of gold, and the gold price fell 30% during the middle of a recession. Again, this was a paradoxical event, as something that should have pushed the gold price upward (severe recession) actually resulted in a falling gold price.

So if recent declines in the gold price have you worried, just remember that this happened before. And in 2008, gold rebounded from its lows to nearly triple in price by 2011. Could that happen again in the coming years?

Buy Gold Today

If you don’t own gold yet, now is the time to start thinking about buying gold. With prices nearly $1,000 below their all-time highs, gold is far cheaper than it was earlier in the year.

And if the gold price ends up climbing to over $6,000 an ounce this year, as many analysts expect, buying gold today could result in some pretty significant gains.

How many people watched gold break the $2,000 barrier and decide not to buy gold because they thought it was too expensive? How many watched gold break through $3,000 and $4,000 because, again, they thought it was too expensive?

Gold could be going through a tremendous bull run right now, and there’s no telling where the gold price could be next year or in the coming years. Some people even think gold could hit $10,000 an ounce.

Now is the time to jump on the bandwagon. And who better to help you than Goldco?

With over $3 billion in precious metals placements and over 8,000 5-star reviews from our customers, Goldco has helped thousands of Americans benefit from owning gold and precious metals.

Call Goldco today to talk to one of our precious metals specialists and learn more about how you can help safeguard your savings with gold.

The post If Gold Is an Inflation Hedge, Why Is the Gold Price Falling? appeared first on Goldco.

Little did anyone in late June 2007 realize that the downfall of that one fund would eventually lead to the collapse of Bear Stearns in March 2008. And little did anyone know that all of this would eventually result in a major recession and financial crisis that was arguably the worst financial crisis the US experienced since the Great Depression.

Even the father of mortgage-backed securities, when asked in early 2007 if he thought overextension of leverage in MBS markets could lead to a financial crisis, thought that any risk could be contained, and that there was no cataclysmic risk to the financial system.

As we now know, that way of thinking was erroneous. The problems in the subprime mortgage market ended up taking down Bear Stearns, sent Wall Street reeling, and eventually resulted in stock markets falling more than 50% from their previous highs before the crisis was over.

Could we experience another, similar crisis in the future? And if so, what might be the trigger, the Bear Stearns of our era?

The Growth of Private Credit Markets

When you think about borrowing money, you probably imagine borrowing from a bank or other financial institution. Or if you think of companies borrowing money, you think of bonds that are issued and sold in financial markets.

But in recent years the growth of non-bank financial lending has been increasing. This so-called private credit allows companies to bypass the banking sector in order to raise money.

Private credit allows lenders to work directly with borrowers to negotiate bespoke lending deals with customized terms in order to acquire loans that are not publicly traded. Private credit lenders can include private equity firms, insurance companies, or even hedge funds.

The advantage for borrowers is that they can customize the terms of a loan, keep borrowing confidential, and gain quicker access to capital than they might be able to get through getting a loan from a bank or issuing bonds.

The advantage for lenders is that there is a potential for higher yield than there is through purchasing publicly traded debt instruments. The potential downside, however, is greater volatility and less transparency.

Private credit has grown significantly in recent years, from $2 trillion in 2020 to $3 trillion in 2025, and is expected to reach $5 trillion by 2029. But there may be a bump in the road.

Are Private Credit Markets the New Bubble?

Recently BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, limited withdrawals from one of its flagship debt funds as worries about private credit markets led to a surge in redemption requests.

Many of these funds limit withdrawals to 5% of the funds’ total value per quarter in order to prevent runs on the funds that could force fund managers to sell off assets at a loss in order to redeem investor redemption requests. In BlackRock’s case, their BCRED fund raised that limit to 7.9% in an attempt to convince people that the fund was safe and had plenty of liquidity to make good on redemption requests.

BlackRock isn’t the only asset manager facing difficulty, either. Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund was recently hit with redemption requests totaling almost 14% of its net asset value, with the fund deciding to raise its redemption limit to 7% in response.

Overall the market view of private credit has begun to sour, and in the coming months we could see even more funds facing pressure. As with the subprime mortgage crisis, it isn’t private credit markets themselves that are a direct threat to the financial system, it’s the fact that companies exposed to private credit assets that could end up being marked down in value could be at risk of getting caught up in a financial contagion.

Bear Stearns’ hedge funds collapsed because the value of the securities they owned fell, with lenders then demanding extra collateral. That led to additional selling of the securities, which further lowered their value.

Once runs like this get started, and fear becomes contagious, there’s no telling where it might stop. In the case of subprime mortgages, fear and uncertainty surrounding asset valuations essentially froze credit markets, leading to the failure of major investment banks like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch.

Major Wall Street figures today such as Goldman Sachs Chairman Lloyd Blankfein and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon have started to draw parallels to what is going on today and what happened during the 2008 crisis. Could weakness in private credit markets end up becoming the cause of another financial crisis?

Help Protect Yourself With Gold

The 2008 financial crisis saw stock markets fall more than 50% from their peaks, and saw trillions of dollars of wealth wiped away in months. Many people watched in horror as the retirement accounts they had spent years building up withered away.

But there was one glimmer of hope amidst the crisis: gold. Gold prices gained 25% during the same period that stock markets fell more than 50%, and they continued growing in the years after the crisis, hitting all-time highs in 2011.

Many people watched gold take off while their retirement savings languished. And many undoubtedly vowed that the next time around they would buy gold to help protect their assets.

Many Americans have already done just that today, purchasing gold, silver, and other safe haven assets in order to help safeguard their financial well-being ahead of a potential recession that many Americans fear.

Gold has served as a safe haven asset for centuries, and continues to be one of the first safe haven assets people flock to when uncertainty and fear prevail. If you’re looking for a safe haven asset, maybe gold is the right choice for you.

With over $3 billion in precious metals placements and over 8,000 5-star reviews, Goldco has worked hard to become one of the best gold companies in the country. We want all of our customers to benefit from owning precious metals.

If you want to learn more about how buying physical gold can help you, call Goldco and talk to our precious metals specialists today.

The post Could Private Credit Markets Cause the Next Financial Crisis? appeared first on Goldco.

• The conflicting goals of maintaining maximum employment while stabilizing prices have become structurally at odds, leaving the Fed with no clear path forward.
• Recent data distortions from weather and strikes, combined with significant downward revisions from 2025, indicate that the Fed has been operating with an overly optimistic view of employment resilience.
• Stubborn inflation is being fueled by geopolitical conflict, energy price surges, and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—issues that interest rate changes cannot resolve.
• As the Fed remains “boxed in” by inconclusive data and conflicting objectives, precious metals continue to serve as a primary safeguard against both inflation and central bank inaction.

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate – the requirement that it conduct monetary policy to achieve maximum employment and stable prices simultaneously – has always contained a latent tension. In ordinary times, that tension can be managed: cooling inflation frequently coincides with slowing labor demand, while easing policy tends to support hiring. 

But in moments like the present, the mandate becomes less a balancing act and more a trap. The Fed is confronted with signals that are not only mixed, but structurally at odds, and the usual policy tools risk worsening whichever side of the mandate they are meant to stabilize.

Distortions and Revisions in the Labor Market

Consider the US labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics February 2026 nonfarm payroll print showed a decline of 92,000 jobs – an alarming drop – but the headline obscured a more nuanced reality. 

A historic two- to three-day blizzard disrupted activity across large parts of the country, a widespread healthcare strike temporarily sidelined workers, and early-year hiring appears to have been pulled forward into December and early January. Add to this the fact that the US is operating near what most would consider full employment – where job gains naturally slow – and the initial report looks less like a collapse than a distortion.

Yet revisions complicate that narrative in a more troubling direction. Over the course of 2025, benchmark revisions have revealed that the labor market was materially weaker than previously believed, with some months now showing outright job losses. 

This is not merely statistical noise; it suggests that policymakers have been operating with an overly optimistic view of labor market resilience. In effect, the Fed is being asked to navigate the economic present using a map that has only recently been corrected, and which may yet be incomplete.

Stubborn Inflation and Geopolitical Pressure

At the same time, inflation remains stubbornly above target. Even prior to the current geopolitical escalation, tariffs were exerting upward pressure on prices. More recently, a hot Producer Price Index reading and a sharp increase in the ISM Prices Paid Index indicated that pipeline inflation is building. 

Now, two weeks into a widening conflict involving Iran, energy markets are amplifying those pressures. Oil prices have surged, feeding directly into gasoline, diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel. Given the centrality of these inputs to transportation, manufacturing, and distribution, their effects are pervasive and rapid.

The inflationary impulse does not stop at energy. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten the flow of a wide range of goods, including fertilizer inputs such as urea, as well as aluminum, helium, and other industrial materials. These are not marginal commodities; they are foundational to agriculture, construction, and advanced manufacturing. 

The result is a cascade of cost pressures that could plausibly push headline inflation well above 3 percent in the coming months, even absent further escalation.

The Limits of Monetary Policy Tools

This is where the policy trap becomes most apparent. The price increases associated with blocked shipping lanes and constrained supply chains are, at their core, relative price changes. They reflect scarcity in specific goods and inputs, not an excess of money or credit chasing too few goods and services. 

As such, rocketing oil prices are not the type of problem that monetary policy is well-suited to address. Lowering interest rates will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, nor will it increase the supply of fertilizer or industrial metals. What it can do, however, is add fuel to the broader price level by easing financial conditions and stimulating demand – possibly sending prices even higher.

Conversely, tightening policy to suppress the general price level carries its own risks. Higher interest rates would work to dampen demand and, over time, reduce inflationary pressures. But they would do so at a moment when the labor market may already be weaker than previously understood. In that environment, further tightening could push unemployment higher, potentially overshooting the “maximum employment” side of the mandate. 

The Fed thus faces a choice between accommodating supply-driven inflation or exacerbating labor market weakness: neither of which is an attractive option.

Market Reaction and the Role of Gold

Financial markets have begun to reflect this tension. Gold, which had surged amid expectations of monetary accommodation and geopolitical risk, has remained elevated but retreated from its highs as the likelihood of near-term rate cuts has diminished. This is consistent with gold’s dual role: it responds both to uncertainty and to expectations of currency debasement. 

When markets perceive that the Fed may be constrained from easing, despite mounting pressures, some of that momentum naturally unwind.

A Future of Cautious Inaction

For the Fed, the most likely path forward is one of cautious inaction. Policymakers will emphasize data dependence, waiting for clearer signals before committing to a directional shift. But the data themselves are becoming harder to interpret. Energy price shocks ripple through the economy in uneven ways, distorting everything from transportation costs to consumer expectations. 

The ubiquity of oil, gasoline, and diesel in production and exchange ensures that incoming price data will carry a high noise-to-signal ratio, complicating real-time assessment.

This posture – the Federal Reserve effectively sitting on its hands, waiting for clear signs of a trend in one direction or the other – will not satisfy political actors, some of whom have been vociferously calling for lower rates to support growth and ease financial conditions. 

Yet the Fed’s institutional credibility depends on resisting precisely that kind of pressure, particularly when inflation risks remain elevated. The dual mandate, in this context, functions less as a guide and more as a constraint, limiting the range of defensible actions.

Conclusion

In the near term, then, the Fed is likely to remain boxed in, navigating an uncomfortable course between inconclusive information and conflicting objectives. For investors and observers, this implies a period of heightened uncertainty and policy ambiguity. 

In such an environment, assets that serve as hedges against both inflation and policy error – most notably gold and other precious metals – are likely to retain a degree of underlying support. Not as a promise of imminent gains, but as a reflection of a world in which monetary authorities, for all their tools, are sometimes left with no good options at all.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

The post The Fed’s Policy Trap: When the Dual Mandate Bites appeared first on Goldco.

From the highest inflation in 40 years, to a shocking election year that saw multiple assassination attempts, to punitive tariffs, and now to war in the Middle East, it seems that every year brings with it new and unexpected economic and geopolitical turmoil.

Americans today are wrestling with financial uncertainty as the economy increasingly grows K-shaped, with wealthy Americans continuing to prosper while middle class Americans face a bleak future.

Recession fears were already high. But add in rising geopolitical tensions that could send oil and gas prices higher for a long time, and you have a recipe for economic stagnation.

It’s no wonder, then, that Americans are increasingly looking for ways to help safeguard their financial well-being, looking to help protect themselves against an uncertain future. And one way they’re doing that is by acquiring safe haven assets like gold.

One popular method of acquiring gold is through a gold IRA. If you’ve never bought gold before, or aren’t familiar with precious metals products, trying to get started with a gold IRA may seem a little daunting. But a gold IRA isn’t difficult to start, and it can give you many potential benefits.

What Is a Gold IRA?

If you don’t already know what a gold IRA is, it’s an individual retirement account (IRA) that owns physical gold coins or bars. Most people who hold IRAs or who know about IRAs know that IRAs can hold stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and other similar commonly held financial assets. But relatively few people know that an IRA can also be used to acquire tangible physical assets like gold.

Types of Gold IRAs

There are two types of gold IRAs, and your decision to start either one will depend on your financial situation and financial goals.

Traditional Gold IRA

The more common type of gold IRA is a Traditional gold IRA. This type of IRA buys gold with pre-tax dollars.

Gains in a Traditional IRA accrue tax-free and taxes are only paid when you take a distribution. As with any Traditional IRA, a Traditional gold IRA requires you to start taking required minimum distributions (RMDs) at age 73.

Any distributions made before you turn age 59½ could incur a 10% penalty in addition to any income taxes you owe.

Roth Gold IRA

A Roth gold IRA is treated just like any other Roth IRA. It acquires gold with post-tax dollars, gains accrue tax-free, and qualified distributions are tax-free.

You can withdraw contributions from a Roth IRA at any time, but earnings cannot be withdrawn until you’re age 59½ and you’ve satisfied the five-year holding rule.

Once you reach age 59½ and have satisfied the five-year holding rule, distributions on earnings from a Roth IRA can also be made tax-free.

10 Benefits of Gold IRAs

Gold IRAs, whether Traditional IRAs or Roth IRAs, can have numerous benefits. Some of these benefits are specific to gold IRAs, while others are some of the general benefits that can come from owning gold.

Let’s take a look at ten potential benefits of starting a gold IRA.

1. Gold Can Help Diversify Your Portfolio

Portfolio diversification is one potential benefit of owning gold. Gold is often considered to be a countercyclical asset, one that performs well even when the economy isn’t.

As such, gold is often held for portfolio diversification purposes, to help offset losses that may occur elsewhere in the event of a market downturn. Whether you start a gold IRA or buy physical gold to store at home, owning gold can serve your diversification needs.

2. Gold Is a Safe Haven Asset

Speaking of downturns, one of gold’s most important characteristics is that it serves as a safe haven asset during times of uncertainty and fear about the future. We’re witnessing that right now, as more and more Americans are trying to buy gold in order to help protect their financial well-being and protect themselves against geopolitical and economic risks.

3. Gold Is an Inflation Hedge

Gold has also traditionally been viewed as a hedge against inflation, thanks to its ability to maintain its purchasing power over time despite high inflation. In fact, during the stagflation of the 1970s the gold price grew at an annualized rate of over 30% per year over the course of the decade, far outpacing inflation.

If inflation were to return with a vengeance today, gold owners would certainly hope that gold might repeat that same strong performance.

4. Gold IRAs Can Offer Tax Advantages

One major advantage of a gold IRA is its tax-advantaged status. Many gold IRA customers choose to fund a gold IRA by transferring or rolling over funds tax-free from a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, IRA, or similar retirement account.

This allows you to help safeguard your existing retirement savings without having to distribute assets and take a potential hit from taxes and penalties.

5. Gold Is Universally Known and Accepted

Gold is an asset that is recognized around the world. India and China are the world’s largest consumers of gold. China and Russia are among the world’s largest gold producers, along with Australia, South Africa, and others.

Almost anywhere you go in the world, gold is recognized as a store of wealth and a safe haven asset. Gold markets are highly liquid and operate around the world nearly 24/7.

This universal acceptance of gold makes gold one of the true universal assets.

6. Gold Can Offer Liquidity

Because of gold’s nearly universal acceptance, there are gold markets operating around the world constantly. Gold is traded 24/7 around the globe, making it one of the most liquid assets there is.

Gold’s liquidity does come with the occasional drawback. In 2008, for instance, gold lost about 30% of its value over the course of the year at the same time as markets were tanking. That’s because people who needed to come up with quick cash were selling their most liquid assets to drum up money. Since gold is highly liquid, it was one of the first assets to get liquidated.

Thankfully gold turned around after that and went on to set record highs. But it’s a reminder that being such a liquid asset can sometimes be a double-edged sword.

7. Gold Has Growth Potential

Gold isn’t just an asset that can help protect you during times of economic uncertainty. It’s also an asset that can help you even when markets seem to be doing well. Since 2001, gold has gained value at an annualized 12.5% rate of growth, versus 6.14% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 6.66% for the S&P 500.

Over the even longer term, since President Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, gold has gained at an annualized rate of 9.2% per year versus 7.57% for the Dow Jones and 8.06% for the S&P 500. This demonstrates gold’s ability to build wealth over the long term, one of many reasons it has remained so popular as a safe haven asset.

8. Gold Is a Tangible Asset

In the modern financial system, most of the assets we have are digital. We may be able to go to the ATM and pull out some physical cash from our bank accounts, but most of our transactions are done digitally without ever touching physical assets.

While this is convenient for everyday life, there are times when people want the safety and security of something tangible. With digital assets held in bank accounts, retirement accounts, and brokerage accounts, it can sometimes feel like your financial well-being is nothing more than a house of sand.

Gold can help combat that feeling, as the gold you own in a gold IRA is a real, tangible asset. And if you decide to buy physical gold and have it shipped to you, or if you decide to take a distribution in gold from your gold IRA, you can hold that physical gold in the palm of your hand.

9. Gold Is Portable

If you take physical possession of your gold, you’ll understand the advantages of gold’s portability. Gold is an incredibly compact store of wealth.

You can hold $100,000 of gold in the palm of one hand. $1 million of gold can fit in a purse or small bag, and you can carry that gold anywhere you want to.

With a gold IRA, you can help protect your existing retirement savings by rolling them over or transferring them tax-free into a gold IRA. And in some cases you can even transfer that money back to your originating accounts, or transfer it into another IRA account.

This can give you additional flexibility and can allow you to move your funds around as you see fit, owning the assets you want to.

10. Safety and Security for Gold IRAs

Like any other IRA, the assets in your gold IRA are managed by an IRA custodian. And because of the physical nature of your gold assets, your gold IRA assets will be stored at a bullion depository. This means that your precious metals assets will remain safe behind multiple layers of security.

Is a Gold IRA Right for You?

With over $3 billion in precious metals placements and over 8,000 5-star reviews from our customers, Goldco has helped thousands of Americans benefit from owning gold. If you’re interested in buying gold, or learning more about the benefits of owning gold, call the precious metals specialists at Goldco today.

This article was originally published in March 2023 and was updated in March 2026.

The post Is A Gold IRA The Right Choice For You? appeared first on Goldco.

• Increased geopolitical conflict and oil prices surging toward $120 per barrel have pushed up US recession probabilities.
• Persistent energy shocks threaten to reverse progress on inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to choose between tightening policy to control costs or easing it to prevent a slowdown.
• The modern US economy is more resilient to oil shocks than in the 1970s because it is now a major energy producer and is driven more by technology and services than heavy industry.
• While market volatility and rising gold prices signal defensive positioning, a full-scale downturn remains a “ratcheting up of risk” rather than a guaranteed outcome.

The widening conflict in the Middle East and the sharp rise in oil prices have pushed recession fears back to the forefront of economic discussion. Oil briefly surged toward $120 per barrel following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes. 

How Oil Impacts Growth

Financial markets responded quickly: stock indices fell, prediction markets raised the probability of a US recession, and analysts began reassessing whether the economic resilience of the past two years could withstand another shock. Yet while recession risks have clearly increased, the conclusion that a downturn is now inevitable remains premature.

Prediction markets illustrate the shift in sentiment. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket recently showed the implied probability of a US recession climbing sharply, rising from roughly the low-20 percent range in early March to around 30–33 percent within a week, with brief spikes even higher. 

Markets are reacting to the classic economic mechanism by which oil shocks transmit through the economy. Higher crude prices raise transportation and production costs, push gasoline prices higher, and squeeze household budgets. Businesses facing higher input costs may slow hiring or investment, while consumers spending more on fuel often reduce spending elsewhere. 

This dynamic can dampen growth and complicate central bank policy if rising energy prices push inflation upward just as economic activity weakens.

Central Bank Policy at a Crossroads

The Federal Reserve now faces precisely that dilemma. After two years of elevated inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes, policymakers had been hoping to begin easing monetary policy later this year as inflation cooled. But energy shocks can reverse progress quickly. 

If oil remains near or above $100 per barrel for an extended period, it could push headline inflation higher again, particularly through gasoline and transportation costs. Central banks historically struggle in such environments because tightening policy to contain inflation risks worsening the slowdown, while easing policy risks allowing inflation expectations to become entrenched. 

The widespread use of petrochemicals in the US economy from capital goods to production to consumer goods make large oil moves generate a higher noise-to-signal ratio in the price level, complicating the Fed’s data analysis. The overall tension – sometimes called a “stagflationary impulse”—is one of the reasons energy shocks have preceded several past recessions.

Even so, there are important reasons to avoid jumping to deterministic conclusions. The structure of the US economy today is much different from that of earlier decades when oil shocks had more immediate and severe macroeconomic consequences. 

A New Economic Blueprint

The United States has become one of the world’s largest energy producers, meaning higher oil prices can also support domestic investment and employment in the energy sector. While consumers still face higher gasoline prices, parts of the economy benefit from increased drilling, transport, refining, and related services. That partial offset did not exist during earlier crises such as the 1970s oil embargoes.

Financial markets also reflect sheer uncertainty rather than fully pricing in recession. Equities have declined but not collapsed, and credit spreads remain far from levels typically associated with severe economic stress. 

Wall Street appears to be recalibrating probabilities rather than preparing for an unavoidable contraction. In fact, at times the greater risk early on is volatility: energy markets remain highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, insurance markets for tanker traffic are adjusting rapidly, and geopolitical headlines are driving short-term trading behavior across global markets.

The Power of Precious Metals

Precious metals have, not surprisingly, entered the conversation. Gold prices have continued to rise, building on a multiyear rally that reflects geopolitical risk, persistent fiscal deficits, and central-bank demand for reserve diversification. Silver has followed with its own surge. 

These movements do not necessarily signal recession but they do indicate that investors are seeking hedges against the uncertain, but possibly growing, possibility of an economic slowdown. 

Historically, gold tends to benefit during periods of geopolitical tension or rising inflation expectations, while silver often moves both as a monetary metal and an industrial commodity tied to economic activity. Their gains therefore reflect a complex mix of defensive positioning and expectations about future economic conditions.

Ratcheting Up Of Risks

Another complication in assessing recession risk is that many traditional economic indicators have performed poorly in recent years. The yield curve, particularly the spread between long-term and short-term Treasury yields, has historically been one of the most reliable predictors of recessions. Yet the curve has been inverted for long stretches over the past few years without producing the immediate downturn that many economists (myself included) expected. 

Similarly, other indicators such as manufacturing surveys or leading economic indexes have sent mixed signals. Some of this may reflect the unusual economic environment following the pandemic, when massive fiscal stimulus, record levels of monetary expansion, global supply disruptions, and shifts in consumer behavior distorted traditional cyclical patterns.

It may also reflect deeper structural changes. The modern US economy is increasingly shaped by technology, intangible capital, and services rather than the industrial sectors that dominated earlier eras. 

America has gone from an industrial powerhouse to a highly financialized, service-based economy. That complexity makes aggregate statistics less precise in capturing real-time economic momentum. 

Many economists have also observed that a widening gap has emerged between the dynamism of the economy – its ability to innovate, produce, and generate wealth – and the ability of households to access that prosperity. 

Rising housing costs, healthcare expenses, and other affordability pressures mean that economic growth does not always translate into widespread benefit. As a result, traditional measures of economic health may appear stronger than the lived experience of many households.

For these reasons, the current situation is best understood as a ratcheting up of risk rather than a foregone conclusion. 

Conclusion

Oil prices near $120 per barrel would almost certainly slow global growth if sustained, especially if shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf persist. But a shorter-lived energy spike might instead produce a temporary inflation bump and market volatility without triggering a full recession. 

Much will depend on how long the geopolitical crisis lasts, how energy markets adjust, and whether policymakers respond in a timely and effective manner.

In short, recession probabilities have risen, but they are far from locked in. The global economy has repeatedly demonstrated resilience in recent years, surprising forecasters who expected downturns that never fully materialized. 

The coming months will probably test that resilience once again, and remind economists that even well-established indicators can struggle to capture an economy that constantly evolves.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

The post Oil Shocks Lift Recession Odds, but a Downturn is Far from Certain appeared first on Goldco.

Gold has played an important role as a monetary metal and as a safe haven asset for centuries. Its value and importance has given rise to numerous terms: gold medal, gold standard, golden rule.

And, with all respect to Jesus, one of the most important golden rules throughout history has been that he who has the gold makes the rules. Those who hold gold (wealth) are often able to dictate financial terms to those who don’t have gold.

Today the United States is the world’s largest gold holder, with over 8,000 tonnes of gold in its official reserves. As you might expect, the US has, since the end of World War II, dominated the international financial order.

The dollar is the world’s reserve currency, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are both headquartered in Washington, DC, and access to the US banking and financial system is almost a requirement for any financial institution around the world to operate.

That has chafed other countries, particularly countries like China who have their own ambitions. And in recent years China has made explicit its desire to internationalize the renminbi (yuan) and dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Many people have speculated that China may try to do this by backing the yuan with gold, or by creating a new gold-backed currency for international trade in order to challenge the dollar’s supremacy.

The Chinese central bank has been a steady and consistent buyer of gold over the last few years, and China is now not only the world’s top producer of gold but also the world’s top consumer of gold.

Now comes news from China that Chinese geologists have discovered what could be the world’s largest gold mine, with potentially up to 1,100 tonnes of gold reaching down nearly two miles into the earth.

Not only would this mine surpass the world’s current largest gold mine in South Africa, its gold is also of an unusually high grade. In some places this new gold mine is thought to be able to produce up to 138 grams (4.44 troy ounces) of gold per tonne of rock.

For comparison, consider that an average grade underground gold mine produces 5-8 grams of gold per tonne of rock, while anything above 8 grams is considered high grade. This new mine could potentially produce over 17 times more gold per tonne of rock than an average gold mine.

Adding to Chinese geologists’ joy was the fact that drilling around peripheral areas of the mine discovered even more gold, so this mine may not be the only source of new gold for China.

Now, this gold obviously isn’t going to add immediately to China’s gold reserves, and it’s going to take a lot of time and effort to mine and process it. But if this mine does pan out, or if even more gold is found in surrounding areas, it could bolster China’s gold holdings.

The question is, though, could this mine be a game changer when it comes to the international monetary order and China’s goal of becoming the dominant player in that order?

The Importance of China to Gold

There is a growing sense in many corners that China is becoming increasingly important to the gold market. Besides being the world’s largest producer and consumer of gold, China is also looking to establish its metals exchanges as competitors to London and New York.

In fact, in the minds of some precious metals analysts, China is already taking the lead from the West when it comes to precious metals price discovery. Due to shortages of physical silver in the West, prices in China have been consistently $10-12 per ounce higher than in the West.

This allows for arbitrage opportunities, and so metal is flowing from West to East, as Chinese exchanges serve the physical needs of buyers in China who need physical silver for industries such as the solar industry, which relies on silver to build the photovoltaic cells in solar panels.

In the view of these analysts, it is only a matter of time before markets acknowledge that Chinese exchanges have become the dominant players when it comes to price discovery. And if dwindling precious metals supply in the West is one reason behind that shift, then this newly discovered Chinese gold mine could play into that too.

China is already the world’s largest consumer and producer of gold, and the world’s second-largest consumer of silver.. If precious metals from Western inventories are flowing to China, China’s gold and silver holdings could increase significantly.

Couple that with the discovery of this new mine and you have a scenario in which China could eventually end up holding much of the world’s gold and silver. And as they say, he who has the gold makes the rules.

If gold and silver continue moving out of Western warehouses and into Chinese warehouses, China could end up being in the driver’s seat when it comes to dictating what happens to precious metals markets internationally. And if China wants to put gold back at the forefront of the international monetary system, large gold holdings could be the way to do it.

Now, this doesn’t mean that China is going to be able to accomplish this anytime soon. China just made its 16th consecutive month of gold purchases, but only for 1 tonne.

With about 6,000 tonnes to go before it reaches the US government’s level of gold holdings, even 10 tonnes a month of purchase would take decades to reach parity with the US. But at current market prices, 6,000 tonnes of gold is only about $1 trillion in gold.

China’s total foreign reserves total about $3.36 trillion, so buying another 6,000 tonnes of gold isn’t something that is financially impossible for China. But again, it won’t happen overnight.

The Future of Gold and China

With China’s stated ambition of dethroning the dollar, its massive gold production and consumption, and the growing importance of China to precious metals markets, it could only be a matter of time before China becomes the world’s most dominant player in precious metals.

If China were to successfully dethrone the dollar, and to tie a new international currency to gold, it could mark a renaissance for gold in the international monetary order. It could also mean that the value of gold could increase, as it would be in greater demand for international financial transactions and as a reserve asset.

Gold owners could benefit if gold becomes the centerpiece of a new international monetary order, as gold revaluation could be accompanied by a diminishing importance of “paper” gold markets, as physical demand will take center stage versus financial settlement of gold purchase contracts.

It may take years still for China to dethrone the dollar, or for gold to take center stage once again, but if it does, wouldn’t you hope that you own gold when that happens?

With gold setting record highs recently, how much higher could gold go if it becomes the linchpin of the international monetary order?

Now is the time to start thinking about buying gold, to make sure that you own gold so that you can benefit from any potential future price gains, but also to make sure that by owning gold you’re not necessarily at the mercy of being dictated to by those who do own gold.

With over $3 billion in precious metals placements and over 8,000 5-star reviews from our customers, Goldco has helped thousands of people just like you benefit from owning gold. Call Goldco today to learn more about how to buy gold and put it to work for you.

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• In a significant policy shift, the US Geological Survey (USGS) has added silver to the federal critical minerals list, formally acknowledging its vital role in national security, infrastructure, and technological competitiveness.
• Global silver production has failed to meet demand for five consecutive years, driven by massive growth in “green” and high-tech sectors.
• Supply resilience is a growing concern because China controls approximately 70% of the global refined silver supply and recently implemented export-control protocols. 
• This new designation allows the federal government to prioritize silver in domestic investment, provide tax incentives for processing, and potentially streamline permitting for new mines. 

In November, the US Geological Survey (USGS) added silver to the federal critical minerals list, alongside copper and uranium, as part of a broader update that expanded the roster to 60 materials. The revision replaced the 2022 list and added 10 new minerals, including metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and lead. The list already contains 15 rare earth elements. While the inclusion of copper and uranium drew predictable attention, silver’s addition is arguably one of the most consequential: not because it is new to industry, but because federal policy has formally caught up to market reality.

The USGS list plays a practical role in shaping federal action. It informs Section 232 investigations into processed critical minerals and derivative products, a mechanism that can lead to tariffs or trade restrictions. It also guides federal investment priorities, tax incentives for domestic mineral processing, stockpiling decisions, and streamlined permitting efforts. In effect, inclusion signals that a material is considered vital to national security, infrastructure resilience, and technological competitiveness.

The Industrial Necessity of Silver

Silver fits those criteria with little controversy. Unlike gold, most refined silver is not stored in vaults; it is consumed. For five consecutive years, global silver production has fallen short of demand. The metal is embedded in a broad array of essential products: solar panels, semiconductors, smartphones, flatscreen displays, electric vehicles, medical devices, and industrial electronics. Its unmatched electrical conductivity and thermal efficiency make substitution difficult in high-performance applications.

Solar photovoltaic manufacturing has become one of the largest structural drivers of silver demand. Solar panels account for a large portion of annual silver consumption. Even as manufacturers reduce silver loadings per panel, the scale of global installations has expanded sufficiently to keep aggregate demand elevated. Electrification trends, including EV production and charging infrastructure, add further support.

The growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure reinforces this demand profile. Data centers, advanced chips, and high-speed networking systems rely on conductive materials with low resistance and high reliability. Silver’s properties make it indispensable in these systems. The industrial case for critical classification rests not on novelty, but on scale and strategic importance.

Geopolitical Risks and Structural Challenges

Supply dynamics add a geopolitical dimension. Roughly 70 percent of the global refined silver supply is controlled by China, according to industry commentary, and on January 1, 2026, China added silver to its rare earth export-control protocols. While silver is globally traded and mined in multiple jurisdictions, refining concentration and export oversight raise legitimate questions about supply resilience. The United States imports a significant share of its silver needs, leaving domestic users exposed to external disruptions.

At the same time, silver supply is structurally inelastic. Most silver is mined as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc operations. That means silver output does not respond quickly to silver prices alone; it depends on broader base-metal production cycles. When demand accelerates — whether from solar expansion or investment flows — supply adjustments can lag.

Markets have reflected these fundamentals. By the end of 2025, silver had posted an approximately 130 percent gain from earlier cycle lows. Investment vehicles tied to silver prices and production saw outsized returns over the same period. In October, the London market experienced backwardation: a rare pricing condition in which near-term contracts trade above longer-dated contracts, often interpreted as a sign of immediate physical tightness.

Demand has also contributed to tightening conditions. Central banks and exchange-traded funds increased precious metals allocations amid concerns about inflation, fiscal sustainability, and currency debasement. Silver’s dual identity — industrial and monetary — positions it uniquely in such environments.

Policy Implications and Resource Management

The updated critical minerals list also intersects with trade policy. Because the list informs Section 232 investigations, inclusion could theoretically expose silver and its derivative products to tariffs or other restrictions. This prospect has generated concern among precious metals traders and manufacturers who rely on imported silver. The United States depends heavily on foreign supply to meet domestic consumption. Any disruption to trade flows – even if intended to bolster domestic resilience – would have significant implications for pricing and market structure.

The broader policy context is instructive. President Trump has prioritized strengthening domestic supply chains for materials deemed essential to national security and technological innovation. Rare earth elements have been a focal point in US-China trade tensions. Copper imports comprise nearly half of US consumption, with much of global refining concentrated in China. Potash imports rely heavily on Canada. In that landscape, silver’s addition appears consistent with a strategy of reducing reliance on foreign-controlled supply chains for materials embedded in critical infrastructure.

For domestic producers, critical mineral designation may support exploration, facilitate permitting, and expand eligibility for federal financing or tax incentives. It may also encourage resource recovery from mine waste and recycling initiatives. While such measures do not guarantee immediate production growth, they align policy tools with the structural importance of the metal.

It is important to distinguish recognition from alarm. Silver markets remain liquid and globally integrated. Reserves are substantial, and recycling contributes meaningfully to supply. The designation does not signal imminent scarcity; it reflects strategic planning in light of persistent deficits and evolving geopolitical realities.

Conclusion

In many respects, the decision appears timely, and perhaps even late. Silver has been central to electronics and industrial manufacturing for decades. What has changed is the magnitude of demand from renewable energy, electrification, and advanced computing. Persistent production shortfalls, refining concentration, and export controls simply made the strategic case clearer.

For precious metals observers, the development underscores silver’s evolving narrative. It is not only a historical monetary asset but also a foundational component of modern industry. By adding silver to the critical minerals list, the federal government has formally acknowledged a fact markets have priced for several years: silver’s role in the global economy is structural, measurable, and increasingly strategic.

The policy move does not create new demand or new scarcity. It validates existing trends. In that sense, silver’s inclusion on the critical minerals list is not dramatic, it is economically logical, and arguably overdue.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

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One way to judge the financial health of an individual, a company, or a country is by looking at the levels of debt they have. The higher the level of debt, the shakier their financial position often is.

Of course, that has to be tempered sometimes by looking at income as well, which is what lenders do when looking at debt to income ratios, or what financial analysts do when looking at balance sheets of companies they’re looking to buy.

In general, though, rising levels of debt, particularly when debt is rising faster than income, are associated with a worsening financial situation. And that’s the same for a country’s economy as it is for an individual’s financial position.

In the US today, debt is everywhere. You can’t buy a house without taking on a mortgage that may be multiple times higher than your annual income.

Many people can’t afford to buy a car without financing it, which means taking on debt. And even buying things online we’re now bombarded with offers to finance our purchases, with numerous vendors now offering buy now, pay later services from various companies that have popped up to serve that sector of the market.

High government debt levels raise the risk of recession and financial crisis due to the potential impact on interest rates. And high household debt levels are a strong indicator of a weakening economy.

Are debt levels in the US increasing today? And could those increasing debt levels be the canary in the coal mine indicating that a recession could be imminent?

Some Key Debt Level Figures

Unsecured loan balances in the US have hit a record high, soaring 10% in 2025 to $276 billion, with 26.4 million consumers holding such balances, up from 24.5 million in 2024.

According to TransUnion, this is partially due to consumers consolidating their credit card balances into unsecured loans. Unsecured loans are also being used by lower-income consumers to help finance their cost of living, which has been rising faster than their wages.

Overall, household loan levels are at the highest level they have ever been, with nearly $21 trillion in outstanding debt, over 40% higher than at the start of the 2008 financial crisis.

Rising debt isn’t necessarily a problem if you can pay that debt off. But can American households do that?

Nearly 13% of US credit card accounts are now delinquent by 90 days or more. According to the New York Fed’s most recent household credit survey, this delinquency level has increased sharply over the last two years, and is now approaching the levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

Student loans that are more than 90 days delinquent have also risen sharply, to nearly 10%. And auto loans delinquent for more than 90 days have risen to over 5%, also nearing levels last seen during the 2008 crisis.

The numbers for transition into delinquency are similarly worrying. This means loans that are now 30+ days late in payment for the first time.

Student loan transitions into delinquency have shot up to over 14%, credit card loans are at nearly 8%, auto loans are at almost 7%, and mortgage transitions to delinquency have been moving upward for the past several years and are now at almost 4%, back to pre-pandemic levels.

These numbers indicate that American households are having increasing difficulty paying off their debts, and that their financial position could be worsening. Their ability to weather an economic downturn is questionable, and in the event of an economic downturn these numbers could shoot even higher.

US Government Debt

What is perhaps more concerning than personal debt is the state of the US government’s finances. The US national debt currently stands at nearly $39 trillion.

The budget deficit for FY 2025 was $1.8 trillion, and the projection for FY 2026 is for a deficit of $1.9 trillion. What would the significance of those numbers be if a recession were to occur?

If you look at what happened during the last recession, during the pandemic, the federal government responded with trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus. The Federal Reserve bought up much of the debt issued to fund that stimulus, which led to a massive increase in the size of its balance sheet.

The national debt, as a result, increased from $23.2 trillion in January of 2020 to $29.6 trillion by December of 2021, an increase of 28%. And, as we all remember, those trillions of dollars of new debt pushed into the economy resulted in inflation rising, until it hit 40-year highs in 2022.

So in the case of government debt, rising debt isn’t necessarily a sign of recession, but if the government responds to recession with more debt-fueled spending, it would send the national debt higher and could result in higher inflation.

Debt and Recession

There’s no question that debt levels within the US are rising, from governments to businesses to individuals. And with delinquency rates rising along with debt levels, there are certainly worries that we’re entering a period that has many similarities to the pre-2008 era.

Even though debt markers are below what they were in 2008, the reliance on buy now, pay later financing is scary to many analysts. And if a recession were to occur, many debt markers could rise to levels last seen in 2008.

Many American households are certainly experiencing financial hardship and financial uncertainty, and most Americans fear that the US economy will enter a recession within the next year. If the US economy were to experience a downturn, especially one similar to 2008, the results could be catastrophic for the financial well-being of millions of American households.

That’s one reason so many people today are turning to safe haven assets like gold and silver to help safeguard their wealth. They remember how markets fell by more than 50% from 2007 to 2009, and they remember how gold and silver saw such significant price growth in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis.

With gold and silver having hit record highs this year, demand to buy gold and silver has surged. Now is the time to start thinking about whether you need to add gold and silver to your portfolio.

If you want more information about how you can put gold and silver to work in your portfolio, call the precious metals specialists at Goldco today. With over $3 billion in precious metals placements and over 8,000 5-star reviews, Goldco has worked hard to become one of the best gold companies in the country.

Don’t let your hard-earned savings fall victim to a potential recession. Call Goldco today to learn more about how you can help safeguard your savings with gold and silver.

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Ever since the end of World War II, the US economy has been the world’s largest and most important. As Americans, we have gotten used to the idea that the world economy revolves around the United States.

But other countries are catching up, notably China, and China’s role and importance in the global economy is growing. Recent events in precious metals markets have underscored the fact that actions in Chinese markets can have just as much impact on gold and silver as actions in North America and Europe.

China has a long history with gold and silver, as it remained a silver standard country long after the Western world had switched to the gold standard. And today China is both a major producer and consumer of gold, with an impact on gold markets that may only continue to grow.

China and Gold Supply

China is currently the largest producer of gold in the world. And one big question many people have is, how much of that gold is leaving China?

There are concerns that Chinese gold production may be mostly consumed within the country, which some speculate may be due to the Chinese government possibly looking to internationalize the yuan through backing it with gold.

Exports of gold from China are limited, and 94% of those gold exports take the form of shipments from the mainland to Hong Kong. So even though China is the world’s largest producer of gold, that production doesn’t make its way to world markets.

Gold exports are also highly regulated by the Chinese central bank, which maintains tight control over the gold trade, thus highlighting the importance of gold when it comes to monetary and banking policy.

China and Silver Supply

China is also the second-largest producer of silver in the world, with an estimated 3,400 tons of silver produced in 2025. That accounts for about 13% of total world production.

Most importantly for world silver markets, China has begun treating silver in a similar manner to strategic minerals like rare earth metals, imposing strict export controls and licensing of silver.

Speculation surrounding an export shutdown helped boost silver prices in January 2026. That’s only natural when you consider that China is the world’s largest producer of solar panels, which rely on silver for their production.

Also contributing to heightened silver prices is the growing importance of the Shanghai Metals Exchange, which is becoming an important precious metals trading hub in China. Price movements there were helping drive the silver price in late January, with many Western traders watching what was happening in China before making their own trading decisions.

With Chinese industry being such a large consumer of silver, it’s only natural for the Chinese government to want to try to keep that silver within the country. But by keeping that silver within China, it cuts down on the amount of silver available in the rest of the world, which could drive up prices.

Just look at tungsten, which China similarly subjected to export controls, and which has more than doubled in price since late 2025. As long as China remains a major silver consumer and keeps its silver within its own borders, events in China could continue having a significant impact on silver markets.

China and Gold Demand

Not only is China the largest producer of gold in the world, it is also the world’s largest consumer of gold. Even though Chinese gold consumption has slowed in recent years, gold demand remains strong, and demand for gold coins and gold bars has finally surpassed demand for gold jewelry.

The Chinese central bank is among the world central banks that has made purchases of gold in recent years, and gold seems to play a major part in China’s conduct of monetary policy.

Chinese consumers are voracious consumers of gold, whether in coin or bar form or in the form of gold jewelry, and as the Chinese middle class grows larger and more affluent, demand for gold in China could continue to rise. With over 50% of Chinese gold consumption in 2025 going towards bars and coins, it will be interesting to see if that structural change continues in the future.

China and Silver Demand

As the producer of over 80% of the world’s solar panels, Chinese industrial demand for silver is robust. But China hasn’t been a large consumer of silver for other purposes.

According to the Silver Institute, worldwide silver demand for investment is highly concentrated, with the US, India, Germany, and Australia accounting for 80% of worldwide silver investment demand. But could that be changing?

Part of the reason for silver’s record high prices in late January 2026 was due to speculation from the Chinese silver market. Prices in Shanghai seemed to drive worldwide silver prices ever higher.

That could indicate a growing role for Chinese traders in the world silver market, and could mean that Chinese markets may start playing a more important role in setting silver prices.

Lessons for Gold and Silver Buyers

The takeaway from recent events in gold and silver markets is that China is playing an increasingly important role in driving gold and silver prices. Just because we as Americans see dollar price quotes for gold doesn’t mean that the US economy and events in the US will be the dominant factors behind gold and silver buying that can push prices up.

Remember that China doesn’t have a financial system or stock market that is as well developed as the United States. Because of China’s communist system, Chinese citizens have been relatively limited in how they can build their wealth, with bond trading having only begun in 1986 and the country’s first stock market having only been founded in 1990.

Because of that, Chinese citizens have traditionally preferred to put their money into tangible assets such as real estate or precious metals. Remember the Chinese real estate bubble, and how many Chinese people lost huge amounts of money when that began to collapse?

The reason so many people bought real estate was because it was one of the few assets they trusted to help them build wealth. Gold and silver are another one of those tangible assets, which is one reason they are gaining in popularity in China.

If you’re looking to buy gold and silver, you’re probably looking at them for the same reason that Chinese buyers are too. You’re looking for a safe haven asset to help protect your wealth, a tangible asset that tends to maintain its value against inflation, and an asset that can gain value even during periods of economic downturns.

You’ll need to consider not just what is happening to the US economy when it comes to buying gold and silver, but also what is happening to the Chinese economy and to what Chinese buyers are doing.

The Future of Gold and Silver

This doesn’t mean that gold and silver will be completely dependent on events in China, of course. Precious metals markets operate around the world almost 24/7, and gold and silver production and consumption occur in other countries aside from China.

This just means that looking at the US economy as a bellwether for gold and silver’s performance isn’t necessarily going to give you an accurate picture of what’s happening in precious metals markets. With gold being an important safe haven asset, an economic slowdown in China could spur safe haven buying there that could push gold prices higher, even if the US economy is doing just fine.

And of course this doesn’t mean that you should avoid buying gold and silver either. Both metals are important safe haven metals, and both have seen record price growth in recent months, hitting all-time highs.

Many analysts expect silver and gold prices to keep climbing, and as fear of economic uncertainty grows, safe haven buying of gold and silver could continue. If you’re looking to buy gold and silver, there’s no better time to buy than today.

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After the horrors of World War II, Europe went to great lengths to ensure that such a conflict never again ravaged the continent. Despite the constant threat from the Soviet Union during the Cold War, European countries continued working together to ensure that they remained united. And once the Cold War ended, many people thought that the possibility of major power war was over.

With the US as the world’s hegemon and the Soviet Union consigned to the dustbin of history, many people thought that war was largely a thing of the past. Sure, minor conflicts might erupt in less developed countries, but the threat of war was thought to be something that First World nations had overcome.

Now we know better, of course. Decades of war on terror and now more recent conflict in Europe and the Middle East have reminded us that war is a threat that can resurface at any time.

War has a significant effect on the lives of those unfortunate enough to be caught up in conflict zones. But it has significant effects on the lives of people outside conflict zones too.

Whether it’s through disruptions to trade, disruption of travel, or other factors, the lives of everyone are affected by war. And the longer a war lasts and the deeper the conflict reaches, the more people are affected.

We’re seeing today how war and the threat of war is impacting the price of gold. Gold is already a popular safe haven asset and thousands of people have already sought to help protect their assets with gold due to rising economic uncertainty.

But the threat of war can result in even greater demand for gold, as people seek certainty during uncertain times. Here are three ways that war can affect the price of gold.

1. Fear of Conflict

When people start to fear for their financial well-being, they often flee to what they know or to what is familiar. In many cases this means heading for the safety of gold.

Many people may not realize the many advantages of gold, but they have an innate sense that owning gold can help them. And during times of unease or uncertainty, gold becomes a popular safe haven asset.

Gold can help to diversify your portfolio, assisting you in helping protect your wealth against the damage that can be done when financial markets plummet. It can act as a hedge against inflation, as it maintains its value over the long term. And it can gain value during periods when other assets are losing value.

When people start to fear that their assets will lose value, gold is very often one of the first assets they will seek out. And the more fear there is of war breaking out or of war continuing, the more the gold price could rise as more and more people seek to buy it.

2. Depth of Conflict

The depth and severity of war are also factors that affect the price of gold. Civil wars in Africa, isolated terrorist incidents in the Middle East, or border clashes in Asia don’t really impact the gold price.

In some ways this is because they happen so regularly that they’ve become ho hum. But they also don’t normally threaten to draw major powers into conflict.

The prospects for those types of wars and clashes spilling over and affecting the world economy are generally pretty slim. But when war breaks out between major powers, even proxy wars, and when the conflict could potentially risk nuclear war, the consequences of a deeper conflict could be severe.

The fighting in Ukraine that began in 2022 reminded most people that nuclear war is still a threat. And the longer the war goes on, the more damaging it could be and the greater the likelihood that a minor miscalculation could result in major consequences.

The attacks on Iran that took out Iranian leadership in early 2026 could end up destabilizing the Middle East, with the potential for numerous Gulf states and even major Western nations to get involved. Even though President Trump has said that the attacks will last four weeks, the US could end up getting pulled in for an even longer period of time.

If the US ends up getting involved in Iran like it did in Iraq and Afghanistan, it could end up costing trillions of dollars over the years, which could significantly degrade the US government’s financial standing. And if it pulls in other major powers like Russia and China due to balance of power fears, there is no telling where things might end.

The more severe a war is and the greater number of major powers involved, the greater the effect could be on gold. And the longer the war lasts, the more people may decide to buy gold to help protect themselves.

3. Disruption of Trade

Trade between nations is always one of the first casualties of war. And if a country at war is a major producer of necessary goods or raw materials, the effects of war could impact the whole world.

When the conflict in Ukraine broke out, it disrupted trade as many Ukrainian exports couldn’t be produced anymore, while other goods like grain ended up flooding European countries and earning the ire of European farmers. Meanwhile Russian products ended up becoming increasingly sanctioned.

The recent attack on Iran has upset world oil markets, with prices for oil and gas climbing. And commercial shipping is on guard as well, as Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and could  launch attacks on any ships that try to make it out of the Persian Gulf.

Trade disruptions from war could result in price increases for both commodities and finished goods. And the longer a war goes on, the greater the disruption could be.

Over time we’ll see just how damaging the impact of these disruptions can get, particularly if these conflicts intensify. But the longer they drag on, the more damage could be done.

Current Crises Affecting Gold

Over the past year, the dominant factor pushing gold prices higher has probably been the uncertainty and unease about the direction of the economy. Fear of the future has helped push the gold price to record highs, and even some recent pullbacks don’t seem to have taken any steam out of gold’s rally.

Economic considerations aren’t the only factor that push gold higher, however, as geopolitical concerns have become increasingly important for the gold price. The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro brought that to a point, and now the combat operations in Iran are helping fuel geopolitical concerns that could support a higher gold price.

Combat Operations Against Iran

The war against Iran could end up becoming a major maelstrom, pulling in numerous Gulf states, NATO powers, or even Russia, Iran’s Caspian Sea neighbor. Iranian allies in Lebanon could target Israel, and Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen could harass shipping transiting the Suez Canal.

In short, anything could happen in the Middle East, and while President Trump may think he can limit combat operations to just a few weeks, there’s no telling who might want to get involved. If the conflict ends up widening and disrupting a significant amount of world trade due to disruption in oil and shipping markets, there’s no telling how severe the impact could be on the world economy.

The War in Ukraine

While Iran is taking center stage today, we can’t forget about the war in Ukraine, which continues to fester after years of bloody warfare. While it may just be a proxy war now, that doesn’t mean that it couldn’t flare up into an all-out Russia vs. NATO conflict.

At the very least, taxpayers may end up being on the hook for billions of dollars worth of military assistance to the Ukrainian government. And if Ukraine ends up collapsing, does anyone really think that NATO is going to allow Russian forces to waltz right up to the border with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania, all NATO members?

With wars going on in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East, the risk that either one of those conflicts could snowball into something bigger can’t be ignored.

Future Crises That Could Affect Gold

Conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe aren’t the only potential crises that could impact the gold price. There’s a great deal of fear that China might feel emboldened in the next few years to take over Taiwan, with many US officials afraid that 2027 might mark the year that China finally decides to take over the island.

If China were to do so, the disruption to world trade could likely make what’s happening today look like nothing. And with Western attention today turned towards Ukraine and Iran, could the US and other Western countries afford to get involved in conflicts on three different fronts?

Just imagine what would happen if the US and China were to get into a war over Taiwan. Almost overnight, many of the goods Americans rely on would disappear. Forget about being able to buy clothes, electronics, or parts to repair cars and household appliances.

China is also a major producer and consumer of gold, so any future conflict involving China would undoubtedly affect the gold price. That could be the result of Western buyers buying more gold as they fear the effects of war, or the result of Chinese gold production no longer being available to world markets, or the result of Chinese buyers snapping up more gold to help protect themselves.

Whatever the reason, there’s a great chance that any future conflict will be one that involves great powers and major gold producers. And that could impact the gold price.

Buy Gold Today

Everything we’re seeing today indicates that the future could be one of greater instability and uncertainty. Economic instability and uncertainty have certainly weighed on people’s minds over the past year, but growing geopolitical instability and uncertainty could play an increasingly important role in gold price movements.

Future geopolitical conflict could impact the price of gold directly not just as the result of war, but also as a result of the changes to the monetary and financial systems that could come about as a result of any future conflict.

Both Russia and China have been buying significant amounts of gold in recent years, and there is widespread speculation that the future of the world monetary system may lie in the return of gold-backed currencies to international prominence.

But no matter what happens, many analysts expect that conditions today are supportive of higher gold prices in the future, with predictions that gold could reach close to $7,000 an ounce in the coming months. Rising uncertainty, greater potential for conflict, and increasingly fearful populations are all factors that could help boost the gold price.

With so much uncertainty in the world today, now may be the right time to start thinking about buying gold. There are numerous options to consider, from rolling over retirement savings into a gold IRA to buying gold coins and bars to store at home.

No matter how you want to buy gold, there is a product or service out there that can cater to your needs. With over a decade of experience in precious metals and thousands of satisfied customers, the experts at Goldco are ready to help you benefit from owning gold.

Whether you’re looking for financial security, greater peace of mind, or long-term growth of your assets, Goldco’s representatives can answer your questions so that you can work towards achieving your goals.

Call Goldco today to learn more about how gold can benefit you.

This article was originally published in May 2022 and was updated in March 2026.

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The phrase “Iran war gold price” has quickly become one of the most searched financial terms as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify. Whenever conflict risks rise—especially involving a major energy producer like Iran—investors instinctively turn their attention to gold.

Gold has historically responded to war, inflation shocks, oil supply disruptions, and currency instability. While headlines often focus on troop movements or diplomatic statements, financial markets immediately begin pricing in uncertainty. The result is often heightened volatility across equities, bonds, energy markets—and notably, precious metals.

It is important to approach this topic carefully and objectively. Geopolitical events can move markets rapidly, but long-term investment decisions should always be made based on personal financial goals, risk tolerance, and diversification principles—not emotion or speculation.

Why War Risk Impacts Gold Prices

When analysts discuss the “Iran war gold price” dynamic, they are really describing how markets price risk.

There are several key transmission mechanisms:

1. Safe-Haven Demand

Gold has long been considered a “safe-haven” asset. During periods of military conflict or political instability, investors often reduce exposure to risk assets such as stocks and seek assets perceived as stores of value.

2. Oil Supply Concerns

Iran plays a strategic role in global energy markets. Any conflict that threatens oil production or shipping routes—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—can cause crude oil prices to rise sharply. Rising oil prices can contribute to inflation expectations, which historically have supported gold prices.

3. Currency Volatility

Geopolitical instability often pressures fiat currencies. If investors anticipate increased government spending, sanctions, or monetary intervention, they may look to hedge currency exposure with tangible assets.

4. Broader Regional Instability

The Middle East’s geopolitical landscape involves multiple regional and global powers. Escalation involving Iran could influence global trade flows, defense spending, and commodity markets—all of which feed into broader macroeconomic expectations.

Historical Examples: Conflict and Gold

Gold’s sensitivity to geopolitical stress is not new. During the Gulf War, gold prices spiked as markets reacted to uncertainty in oil supply and global security. Similar patterns were observed following major geopolitical shocks in the early 2000s and during other periods of heightened global tension.

However, it is equally important to note that gold does not always move in a straight line during conflict. Prices may initially spike on headlines and later retrace as markets reassess the actual economic impact. Short-term volatility can be significant.

For this reason, investors should avoid viewing gold purely as a short-term speculation tied to war headlines. Instead, many consider it part of a broader risk management strategy.

The Inflation Connection

An Iran-related conflict could potentially impact inflation in several ways:

• Higher energy prices
• Increased shipping and insurance costs
• Supply chain disruptions
• Expanded fiscal spending globally

If inflation expectations rise, central banks may face difficult policy decisions. Historically, gold has often performed well during periods when real interest rates (interest rates adjusted for inflation) are low or negative.

That said, gold prices are influenced by multiple factors simultaneously—including interest rate policy, currency strength, global liquidity, and investor sentiment. Geopolitical tension is just one variable.

Central Banks and Gold Accumulation

Another structural factor supporting gold demand in recent years has been central bank buying. Several countries have increased gold reserves as part of reserve diversification strategies.

While geopolitical risk can accelerate short-term investor demand, central bank accumulation tends to reflect longer-term concerns about currency diversification and financial system resilience.

The Iran war gold price discussion, therefore, fits into a broader global trend: governments and institutions seeking stability amid uncertainty.

Volatility vs. Long-Term Strategy

It is essential to distinguish between:

• Short-term trading reactions to geopolitical headlines
• Long-term portfolio allocation decisions

Precious metals can experience rapid price swings during crises. Investors considering physical gold or silver should evaluate:

• Overall portfolio diversification
• Liquidity needs
• Storage and security considerations
• Time horizon

Gold and silver are not income-producing assets, and their prices can decline as well as rise. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Physical Gold vs. Paper Gold

Some investors prefer physical bullion—coins or bars—because it represents direct ownership of a tangible asset. Others may choose exchange-traded products or mining equities, each of which carries different risk characteristics.

Physical precious metals:

• Do not depend on corporate performance
• Are not liabilities of a financial institution
• Require secure storage
• May involve premiums over spot prices

Investors should carefully review costs, liquidity considerations, and suitability before purchasing physical metals.

Conclusion: Understanding the Iran War Gold Price Narrative

The “Iran war gold price” theme highlights how deeply interconnected geopolitics and financial markets have become. Conflict risk involving Iran can influence oil prices, inflation expectations, currency markets, and investor sentiment—all of which may affect gold.

However, disciplined investors recognize that precious metals are best viewed as part of a diversified strategy rather than a reactionary trade to headlines. While geopolitical uncertainty can support demand for safe-haven assets, long-term financial planning requires balance, prudence, and a clear understanding of risk.

For those interested in learning more about physical gold and silver as part of a broader wealth preservation strategy, Allegiance Gold provides educational resources to help investors make informed decisions.

Call Allegiance Gold today at 844-790-9191
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• Following the strikes on Iran, gold has surged past $5,200 per ounce, reinforcing its role as the ultimate hedge against systemic risk.
• The rally in precious metals is inextricably linked to energy security. With 14 million barrels of oil per day passing through the Strait of Hormuz, any disruption to this chokepoint drives inflation expectations.
• The escalation could trigger a global rotation out of equities and into defensive assets. 
• Unlike bonds or equities, gold’s value isn’t tied to government solvency or corporate earnings. Capital may seek assets that are no one else’s liability.

The weekend strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran – and the reported killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – have sharply escalated geopolitical tensions and immediately refocused global markets on one central question: where does capital go when uncertainty spikes? The early answer is gold. 

On Sunday afternoon, spot gold surged past $5,200 per ounce in electronic trading, with futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange climbing above $5,296, and expectations of a gap-up opening when markets fully reopen. 

This comes on top of an already extraordinary run: gold touched an all-time high near $5,608 in January 2026 and has remained elevated amid trade tensions, tariff uncertainty, and broader geopolitical stress. February alone saw a gain of roughly 7.6 percent in gold, while silver rose nearly 10 percent for the month. The fresh escalation in the Middle East adds a new and potentially powerful layer of risk premium.

Oil Disruption and Inflationary Pressure

Gold’s reaction cannot be separated from oil. Brent crude had already been firming, but fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz (through which roughly one-third of global seaborne crude exports and about one-fifth of global liquid natural gas shipments pass) have intensified supply concerns. 

More than 14 million barrels per day flowed through the strait in 2025, making it one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world. Reports that tanker traffic has thinned and that some oil majors have suspended shipments underscore how quickly logistical uncertainty can translate into price risk. 

In extreme scenarios, crude could surge past $100 per barrel (as it did early in the Russia-Ukraine War) if regional facilities are attacked or if shipping routes are significantly impaired. Higher oil prices matter for gold because they feed inflation expectations, raise macroeconomic uncertainty, and increase the probability of policy stress in energy-importing nations. When oil rises sharply for geopolitical reasons, gold often benefits as investors seek protection against both inflation and financial instability.

Navigating the “Risk-Off” Landscape

The immediate market pattern is classic “risk-off” behavior. Equities are expected to open lower, particularly in markets sensitive to foreign capital flows. In India, for example, foreign institutional investors may reduce financial assets exposure, while higher crude prices widen the current account deficit, pressure the currency, and stoke domestic inflation. 

In China, while oil imports represent a smaller share of total energy consumption (roughly 18 percent, compared with oil and gas making up close to 70 percent of energy use in the US and EU) higher global crude prices still raise import costs and add short-term inflationary pressure. Across regions, the effect is similar: when geopolitical risk rises and energy prices jump, investors rebalance portfolios toward assets perceived as stores of value. Gold and silver sit at the center of that rotation.

The Durability of the Rally

Ultimately, the durability of this gold rally depends on the conflict’s trajectory. A protracted conflict would likely see volatility remain high, while signs of diplomatic de-escalation could trigger profit-taking. Gold is highly sensitive to shifts in perceived worst-case outcomes. 

If retaliation is limited and energy infrastructure remains largely intact, some of the risk premium embedded in bullion could fade. But if the conflict broadens – especially if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is materially disrupted or oil facilities in Gulf states are targeted – gold could move toward new highs as global capital seeks safety.

Hedging Systemic Risk

There is also a financial structure dimension. In periods of acute uncertainty, buyers do not merely hedge oil risk; they hedge systemic risk. Gold functions differently from equities or bonds because it is no one else’s liability. It does not depend on corporate earnings, government solvency, or central bank credibility. 

In times when geopolitical events raise questions about fiscal burdens, inflation trajectories, or monetary responses, that characteristic becomes more valuable. The recent surge in US Treasuries alongside gold reflects this dual flight to safety, but gold has an additional appeal when inflation fears accompany conflict-driven oil spikes.

Silver, platinum, and palladium have also moved, though gold remains the primary barometer of geopolitical stress. Silver climbed nearly 5 percent recently, reflecting both safe-haven demand and its industrial linkage to global growth. But gold’s role is more singular: it is the asset most closely associated with capital preservation during regime uncertainty.

Strategic Outlook: Discipline Over Reaction

For long-term planners, asset allocation discipline becomes critical in moments like this. Analysts stress avoiding panic-driven decisions and maintaining diversified exposure across equities, bonds, and precious metals. Historically, wealth has been built through steady allocation rather than reactive trading. 

Still, in the short run, markets will move on headlines. The intensity of Iran’s response, the resilience of energy infrastructure, and the willingness of major powers to pursue diplomacy will determine whether gold’s current surge represents a temporary spike or the early stage of a renewed breakout.

Oil is the spark, but gold may be the signal. The tighter the perceived constraint on energy supply and the longer the conflict appears likely to last, the stronger the case for sustained upward pressure on bullion. As long as geopolitical risk remains elevated and crude volatility persists, gold may very well remain at the center of global capital’s defensive positioning.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

The post Strikes on Iran and the Safe-Haven Surge appeared first on Goldco.

Recent news events and market performance have pushed gold back into the spotlight. With gold prices having risen 65% in 2025 and hitting new record highs in 2026, that has spurred renewed interest among many Americans in buying gold.

But especially if you’ve never bought gold before, you might be wondering how to buy physical gold.

Yes, there are other ways to gain exposure to gold and gold markets, like buying shares of gold exchange-traded funds or shares of gold mining stocks. But each of these has its drawbacks.

For many people who want to buy gold, they want to have physical gold. After all, if you have gold in a vault somewhere, or in a safe deposit box, do you trust that you’ll be able to get your hands on it if you really need it?

For many people, being able to hold their physical gold coins or gold bars in their hands is the only way they trust that they actually own gold. If you want to buy physical gold that you can store at home, here’s how to buy that gold.

Types of Physical Gold

First, let’s look at some of the different types of physical gold, because that can play a major role in how you buy it, where you buy it, and how much you might pay.

Gold Ore and Dust

Before gold is melted down and refined, it starts off as gold ore. Gold is mined in huge mines in which tons of rock are extracted from the earth, crushed, and subjected to various chemicals to leach the gold out of them.

It can take several tons of rock just to produce one single ounce of gold. While it’s possible to buy this raw gold, or gold dust, or gold nuggets, these are mostly just sold as curios or keepsakes.

While it might be neat to own gold dust or gold nuggets, it’s going to be difficult to convince other people to buy it from you, which is part of the point of owning gold. The reason gold coins and bars are popular is because they allow anyone to immediately ascertain that they contain a certain amount of gold of a given fineness.

That allows the next buyer of that gold to know exactly what they’re getting for their money, which isn’t always the case when it comes to gold dust, gold nuggets, or gold ore.

Gold Bars and Ingots

Next up are gold bars and ingots. When you think of gold in a vault, like at Fort Knox, this is what you’re thinking of. Imagine stacks and stacks of large gold bars, on heavy duty pallets, stacked floor to ceiling.

In reality, gold bars and ingots come in numerous different sizes. While the 400 ounce Good Delivery bar is the standard for the London gold trade, those bars aren’t affordable to the average consumer.

Consumer-grade gold bars come in sizes ranging from as little as 1/100th of an ounce to as much as 1 kilogram (~32.15 ounces). Among the most common sizes are the 1 ounce, ½ ounce, and ¼ ounce among the ounce sizes, and 1 gram, 5 gram, 10 gram, 20 gram, and 50 gram among metric sizes.

Gold bars and ingots can be either stamped or cast, and normally contain some sort of marking indicating which refiner or assayer produced them. Very often they will contain a serial number, either stamped or minted into the surface of the bar.

Smaller bars such as the 1 gram bars often come in assay cards or with other special holders that feature certificates, QR codes, or serial numbers to guarantee their authenticity.

Gold Coins and Rounds

While gold bars come in a variety of sizes, they often lack the unique designs that coins offer. And because gold coins come in shapes and sizes that are familiar to those of us who grew up using coins to buy things, gold coins have remained a popular choice for people looking to buy physical gold.

Older gold coins came in a wide variety of sizes and diameters, based on the currency system of their country of origin. Many of these coins, or modern restrikes, remain popular with collectors and gold buyers.

Modern gold coins are very often minted with an eye for the retail market, particularly for the gold IRA market, which requires that gold coins or gold bullion be a minimum fineness of .995 (99.5% pure gold). New designs are produced every year, and there are numerous coins to choose from.

Among the most popular sizes of gold coins are the ¼ ounce, ½ ounce, or 1 ounce sizes. While there are both larger and smaller sizes of gold coins produced as well, those smaller and larger coins are less frequently encountered.

Gold Jewelry

We can’t forget gold jewelry, which in countries like China and India is often treated as a financial asset. Gifts of gold jewelry to newly married couples are intended to help get them started in building their financial security, and gold markets in those countries are keenly attuned to the dual use of jewelry both as a decoration and as a store of value.

Gold jewelry doesn’t play quite that role here in the United States, although there are probably some people who hold or acquire gold jewelry pieces primarily for their metal content. But when it comes to liquidating gold jewelry, the market for it isn’t as widespread or liquid as it is for gold coins.

Buying Gold With a Direct Cash Purchase

A direct cash purchase of gold is just what it sounds like. You pay with cash, check, bank wire, or sometimes even a credit card, and you receive physical gold in return.

Direct cash transactions are relatively straightforward, and depending on where you buy your gold, you can go home with it that day or have it shipped to your doorstep within a few days. Then it’s up to you to determine how to store it.

Many people who make direct cash purchases of gold often adhere to the principle that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, or believe that if you can’t hold your assets, you don’t really own them.

Sometimes people who want to buy physical gold don’t trust banks, safe deposit boxes, or other third parties. They’re often willing to take the risk of theft to store their gold in a safe at home where they can hold it.

While other people may think that those types of attitudes are crazy, that’s why there are different strokes for different folks.

Where to Buy Gold

With gold ownership being as widespread as it is, you can buy gold in numerous different places. From estate sales to pawn shops to coin shops to online marketplaces, you can find gold of all different types just about anywhere.

But if you’re looking for specific types of gold, certain gold coins or bars, then you’ll have to focus your search a little more closely. If you’re looking to buy gold as a safe haven asset, to hedge against inflation or potential recession, or to help protect yourself against further deterioration of the dollar, then not just any gold will fit the bill.

There are numerous sellers of gold, many of whom have an online presence. Some sellers specialize in certain types of gold, such as numismatic gold for collectors.

Others specialize in selling gold for gold IRAs. And many sell physical gold that you can take delivery of through direct cash purchases.

Wherever you decide to buy gold, you need to do your research and read reviews. It can be tempting to peruse online marketplaces to buy gold, but how do you really know that the gold coins or gold bars you’re purchasing are real?

Even the most experienced gold buyers occasionally run across counterfeit coins, and with the high quality of Chinese counterfeits today, buying gold online from unknown sellers can be a gamble. That’s why it helps to work with experienced partners who know what they’re doing and who can guarantee that the gold they’re selling you is authentic.

At Goldco, we work directly with mints around the world to bring our customers guaranteed authentic gold coins. By buying our gold coins directly from the source, we can ensure that you’re buying 100% authentic gold.

In addition, working directly with mints allows us to weather supply disruptions that periodically impact the gold market. It can be frustrating to be ready to buy gold coins to start helping to protect your wealth, only to find that there isn’t any gold available. That’s why Goldco works hard to make sure that our customers don’t have to deal with those problems.

3 Easy Steps to Buy Gold

Once you’ve figured out what kind of gold you want to buy, and you’ve decided to work with a trusted partner like Goldco, the only thing left to figure out is how much gold to buy and where to store it.

Here are the three easy steps you need to take to buy physical gold.

Step 1. Sign Your Customer Agreement

• In order to secure your gold purchase, you will sign a standard customer agreement that says that you understand Goldco’s terms of doing business.

Step 2. Fund Your Gold Purchase

• We offer a few options for you to fund your gold purchase, such as bank wire or check.
• If paying by check, we can send you a shipping label so that you can expedite your purchase without having to pay to mail your check.
• Once your account has been funded, you can move to Step 3.

Step 3. Select the Gold You Want to Buy

• Once your account has been funded, you then choose the gold coins you want to buy.
• Your gold coins will then be shipped to your destination of choice, whether that’s a depository you choose, or even directly to your doorstep.

That’s all there is to it! Three easy steps to buy physical gold.

Frequently Asked Questions About Buying Gold

What are the main ways to buy gold?

Coins and bars are two of the most common and popular ways to buy gold. Goldco offers a selection of gold coins and gold bars for direct cash purchase.

I’ve never bought gold before. Is gold a good choice for me?

Whether or not gold is a good choice for you is a decision you’ll have to make based upon your individual needs. You may want to consult with your financial advisor to determine which precious metals can help you achieve your aims, whether that’s portfolio diversification, inflation hedging, or something else.

How much of my portfolio should be allocated to gold?

The percentage of your portfolio you devote to gold is a decision you need to make with a view toward your risk tolerance and financial goals, and should be done in consultation with your financial advisor. Goldco’s specialists are not financial advisors and cannot provide financial advice.

Do I have to pay taxes when I buy or sell gold?

Direct cash purchases of gold coins or gold bars are tax-exempt in many states. You should consult with your financial advisor or tax professional before making a purchase.

Sales of gold can be subject to taxation, and rates can differ depending on how long you have owned the gold, whether it is held inside or outside of an IRA, etc. Due to the variety of potential tax situations and the fact that Goldco’s specialists are not tax advisors, Goldco cannot provide tax advice.

You should consult with your financial advisor or tax professional before selling your gold in order to determine your potential tax liability.

How do I know that the gold I’m buying is real and not counterfeit?

There are numerous ways to check if the gold coins or gold bars you have are real. One of the first things to do is to check if the coin or bar matches the published dimensions and weight.

Gold coins are also non-magnetic, so they should not be attracted to a magnet. Gold coins also make a distinctive pinging sound when they are struck, versus base metals which have more of a thudding sound.

Finally, there are chemical tests that can be done by professionals, although these may damage your gold products.

But one of the best ways to avoid counterfeit gold is to work with trusted partners like Goldco who work with mints around the world to bring you guaranteed authentic gold coins so that you don’t have to worry about possibly buying counterfeit precious metals.

How do I store my gold safely?

Gold that you buy with a direct cash purchase can be stored at home, in a safe deposit box or, if you’re making a particularly big purchase, can be stored in a bullion depository.

What is the best gold to buy?

That all depends on your particular needs and how gold fits into your financial planning.

For some people, gold may make up a large portion of their portfolio, and they may hang onto it for a long time. Others may only want to buy gold as a short-term hedge against a possible economic downturn.

And other people may just want to hang onto a few gold coins or gold bars at home in case of a rainy day. How much gold you buy and the form you buy it in will be determined by how you plan to make use of your gold.

Is Gold Right for You?

The decision on whether or not to buy physical gold is a personal one that you’ll have to make depending on your own personal financial situation and financial goals. Every person is different, and what might work for one person won’t necessarily work for another.

At Goldco we have worked with thousands of customers, with large budgets and small, to help them benefit from owning gold. With over $3 billion in precious metals placements and over 8,000 5-star reviews, we work hard to bring our customers quality products and superior customer service.

If you’re interested in putting gold to work in helping to safeguard your hard-earned savings, call Goldco today to learn more about your physical gold buying options.

This article was originally published in October 2023 and was updated in February 2026.

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If you have a long memory, you probably remember when gold hit all-time highs of over $1,900 an ounce in 2011, before then slowly falling back to just over $1,000 in 2015. So it’s only natural that people would question whether gold’s price moves today could mirror the price moves from back then, and whether they should buy gold today or wait.

But if history is anything to go by, gold could still have a ways to go. And in the eyes of gold experts today, the gold price still has a lot of headroom.

Here’s what the experts are saying about the gold price.

Gold Price Is Resetting

According to the CEO Of American Pacific Mining, the current pullback in the price of gold is a reset, not an end to the bull market. As he pointed out in a recent interview, nothing goes up forever.

That’s an important point to keep in mind, especially considering the meteoric rise in the gold price over the past years. It was only in March 2025 that the gold price first hit $3,000, and in October 2025 it hit $4,000.

In January 2026 the gold price hit $5,000 for the first time, and peaked above $5,500 in late January 2026. But even after its sudden and dramatic price drop, gold is still moving right around the $5,000 mark.

Every time it seems that gold might drop to $4,800 or lower, it suddenly picks right back up again. That seems to indicate that we’ve reached a practical price floor at the moment, and that gold could pick up momentum again.

According to American Pacific’s CEO, there has been no fundamental shift in the demand for gold, as geopolitical tensions and protectionism remain underlying problems that support the gold price in the long term.

Analysts Remain Bullish on Gold Price Targets

Analysts at ANZ bank have recently raised their price target on gold, expecting the gold price to reach $5,800 an ounce in the second quarter of 2026, an increase from their previous price target of $5,400 an ounce. This is significant because this more bullish outlook comes even after gold’s pullback from its all-time highs.

According to ANZ, expectations for this year include at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts, if not three, as the inflation outlook seems to have moderated. Indeed, the latest CPI numbers show that inflation rates have fallen to 2.4% year on year, which if that continues could strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts.

That, coupled with continued economic and geopolitical uncertainty, could continue to support further inflows into gold, according to the analysts. And as rate cuts continue to drive yields on Treasury bonds lower, gold becomes an even more attractive asset versus Treasuries.

UBS analyst Dominic Schnider is even more bullish on gold, expecting the gold price to reach $6,200 by mid-year. According to Schnider, key factors pushing the gold price include “central bank and investor demand, large fiscal deficits, lower real US interest rates, and geopolitical risks.”

Schnider’s comments came just one month after he had predicted that gold would reach $5,000 by the end of the first quarter, a mark that was reached much quicker than that.

What Happened to the Gold Price from 2006 to 2008?

For those who wonder whether the gold price today has parallels to the gold price in 2011, it might be more helpful to compare the gold price today to the gold price from 2006 to 2008.

For one thing, 2011 was a couple of years after the Great Recession. Today, the US economy is not in recession, although fears of recession are growing.

Where the economy is right now is probably analogous to 2006 or 2007, when warnings of recession were growing, but recession hadn’t yet occurred. Stock markets were still booming, and warnings of recession were shrugged off by policymakers.

Back then gold climbed from $531 at the beginning of 2006 to $635 by the end of the year. In 2007 gold continued to climb, from $640 at the beginning of the year to $833 by the end of the year.

That price growth wasn’t straight up either, with numerous pullbacks and dips along the way. But with 23% price growth in 2006 and 31% in 2007, it was clear that gold was on the march.

2008 was a mixed bag, with gold peaking at over $1,000 in March before falling nearly 30% by October. Still, gold picked up during the rest of the year and ended up notching a 5% gain for the year.

And we all know how gold performed from there, rising 24% in 2009, 30% in 2010, and 10% in 2011 to hit all-time highs.

All that is to say, if you’re worried about gold having topped out today, history shows that gold doesn’t always move in a straight line upward. Prices move up and down with market conditions.

Gold’s performance in the 20th century, however, has been fantastic, with an average annualized growth rate of 12.4% per year since 2001, versus 6.3% for the Dow Jones and 6.8% for the S&P 500.

If you want to try to put future potential growth to work for you, now is the time to start thinking about buying gold. Just call the precious metals specialists at Goldco to learn more about all of your gold buying options.

The post Here’s What the Experts Are Saying About Gold Prices appeared first on Goldco.

Warsh has a reputation for being relatively hawkish on monetary policy, which apparently spooked commodities traders. Gold prices fell 9% on January 30th, while silver prices fell 28%.

But why is Warsh considered bad for gold prices? And is he really as bad as some traders fear?

Key Takeaways

• Gold and silver experienced sharp selloffs after Warsh’s nomination due to concerns about his reputation as a monetary policy hawk.
• A more dovish Fed is generally considered to be good for gold.
• Despite the dip to below $5,000, analysts still consider a strong case for gold, and some think the price could rise to over $7,000 an ounce.

Warsh’s History With Monetary Policy

Warsh previously served as a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011. He resigned from the board in 2011 after having criticized the Fed for its overly accommodative monetary policy.

At the November 2010 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Warsh stated to Chairman Bernanke, “If I were in your chair, I would not be leading the Committee in this direction, and frankly, if I were in the chair of most people around this room, I would dissent.” And at a subsequent speech in New York that same month Warsh criticized both quantitative easing and the US government’s fiscal policy.

But more recently Warsh has indicated his willingness to lower interest rates, citing factors like increased productivity growth. Is that just his way of placating President Trump in order to get the nod as Fed chairman, or has Warsh really changed his tune?

Of course, Warsh isn’t a shoo-in for the position. He still has to navigate the confirmation hearing process, and Senate Democrats have stated that they’re unwilling to consider his nomination until President Trump drops what they believe are pretextual prosecutions against current Fed Chairman Jay Powell and current Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Will Democrats be able to stymie Warsh’s appointment, or will Trump back off those prosecutions now that he will have his man at the Fed?

Why Gold Markets Want a Dovish Fed

In general, precious metals markets are supposed to do better when the Fed is more dovish, meaning that monetary policy is accommodative and interest rates are lower. This is for a number of reasons.

First, lower interest rates can make bonds a less attractive asset option, as their yield drops. When bond yields are high, there’s an incentive to buy bonds because of that “guaranteed” high interest rate.

But when bond yields fall, the case for non-yielding gold becomes stronger versus buying low-yielding bonds.

It wasn’t just precious metals markets that hemorrhaged value after the announcement of Warsh as the next chairman of the Fed. Commodities in general pulled back, with copper prices falling 3%.

Lower interest rates lower the cost of holding and storing physical commodities like gold, allowing consumers and users to increase their demand and build up inventories, which can raise prices.

Accommodative monetary policy is also often an indicator that the economy may be heading toward a downturn, and thus can be seen as a precursor of a possible recession. As a safe haven asset, gold is a popular choice for people looking to help safeguard their wealth against possible loss during a recession.

Which Way Could Gold Prices Move?

The announcement of Warsh’s nomination took some of the air out of the gold price, which had pushed above $5,000 an ounce for the first time this year. While the gold price has bounced around since then, many analysts expect the yellow metal to continue its growth over the long-term, even if prices don’t rise as meteorically as they had in recent weeks.

Even if the expectation is for Warsh to be more hawkish, that may not end up being the reality of Warsh’s tenure. If Warsh ends up taking over right before a recession, there’s a good chance that economic events could force his hand, and could force him to be more dovish than he would otherwise like to be.

It’s very easy to be hawkish when you’re not the one in charge and not the one taking blame for the economy circling the drain. When you’re the chairman and the whole world is watching your every move, not to mention the President is breathing down your neck, it’s a whole different story.

Markets may think that Warsh is going to be a hawk, but he may find himself in a tough spot once he actually becomes chairman.

Put Gold to Work For You

With gold prices having pulled back recently due to fears of Warsh’s hawkishness, now is the time to start buying the dip while gold gets more affordable. Gold recently rose to nearly $5,600 an ounce, in a frenzy of nearly daily price growth.

Recent profit-taking has pushed gold back under $5,000 an ounce, leaving a lot of room for future growth. Many analysts expect gold to continue increasing in price, with expectations for 2026 reaching to $6,000 or even over $7,000 an ounce.

Many people think gold is expensive today, and it certainly is when compared to where it was just a few years ago. But conditions are right today for the gold price to keep rising.

Safe haven buying of gold has been increasing over the past year as fear surrounds the economy. Geopolitical risks are rising, helping boost even more safe haven demand.

Gold’s tremendous 65% price gain last year helped bring increased attention to gold and boosted momentum trading. With all of these factors coming together, we may look back years from now at $5,000 as a price floor rather than a ceiling.

Now is the time for you to take advantage of gold’s potential price growth by buying gold to add to your portfolio. Whether you want to start a gold IRA to help protect your retirement savings, or whether you would rather make a direct cash purchase of gold coins to keep for yourself at home or in a safe deposit box, Goldco has options available for you.

With over $3 billion in precious metals placements and over 8,000 5-star reviews, Goldco has worked hard to provide outstanding customer service and exemplary gold products to our customers.

Call Goldco today to learn more about how to buy gold, and find out why our customers believe Goldco is one of the best gold companies in the country.

The post What Does Trump’s New Fed Chairman Mean for Gold? appeared first on Goldco.

• Silver is transitioning from a traditional monetary hedge to a strategic industrial input essential for the modern economy.
• Demand is now dominated by solar power, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure, making silver a “floor” for global electrification.
• Global markets have faced consecutive years of shortages, with demand consistently outstripping mine production and recycling.
• Silver now moves based on industrial production cycles and tech investment, often diverging from gold’s price patterns.

For centuries, silver occupied an ambiguous position in global markets — part precious metal, part industrial commodity. Today, that balance is shifting decisively. The defining feature of the modern silver market is no longer its relationship to gold, nor even its traditional role as a monetary hedge. 

Instead, silver is undergoing a structural industrial transition, one driven by electrification, artificial intelligence infrastructure, renewable energy deployment, and advanced manufacturing. 

This transition is reshaping how silver is priced, traded, and understood within the broader macroeconomic landscape.

The Rise of Industrial Demand

Industrial consumption has become the dominant driver of silver demand, accounting for roughly half or more of global usage and rising steadily in recent years. Estimates suggest industrial applications consumed roughly 665 million ounces in 2025 alone, making silver one of the few metals where fabrication demand rivals investment demand in scale.

The change is not merely cyclical but structural. Historically, silver demand rose and fell with electronics manufacturing or photography cycles. Today, however, three long-term technological megatrends are accelerating consumption:

• solar photovoltaics

• electric vehicles and electrification

• and computing infrastructure linked to artificial intelligence

These sectors depend on silver’s unique physical properties — especially its unmatched electrical conductivity — which makes substitution difficult despite ongoing efforts to reduce per-unit usage.

Solar Power and the Electrification Boom

The most visible transformation has come from the energy transition. Solar panel manufacturing alone now consumes hundreds of millions of ounces annually, representing a substantial share of global demand. 

In recent years, photovoltaic production has emerged as one of the largest single sources of silver consumption, with installations accelerating even as manufacturers attempt to reduce silver loadings per cell.

Technological shifts within solar manufacturing have paradoxically increased silver intensity in some cases. Newer high-efficiency cell designs, such as TOPCon and heterojunction technologies, require larger amounts of conductive silver paste to maximize power output. 

As installations reach record levels worldwide, the photovoltaic sector has become a structural floor beneath silver demand rather than a marginal growth segment.

Electrification extends beyond solar. Electric vehicles require significantly more silver than internal combustion vehicles because of high-current electrical systems, sensors, and battery management components.

Estimates suggest each EV uses between 25 and 50 grams of silver — nearly double the amount found in conventional automobiles — embedding a long-term growth trajectory into automotive demand.

The implication is profound: silver demand is increasingly tied to infrastructure investment rather than financial speculation. 

As countries expand renewable energy grids and electrified transport networks, silver consumption becomes linked to policy mandates and capital spending cycles rather than solely investor sentiment.

Artificial Intelligence and the New Industrial Cycle

Another emerging driver is artificial intelligence infrastructure. Data centers, semiconductor fabrication, advanced circuitry, and cooling systems all rely heavily on silver’s electrical and thermal properties. 

As computing power requirements escalate, the expansion of AI-related hardware has become an incremental but persistent source of industrial demand. Analysts increasingly view AI as a structural tailwind for silver consumption, particularly through electronics manufacturing and high-performance computing equipment. 

The rollout of 5G networks, cloud infrastructure, and large-scale data centers has accelerated the metal’s integration into modern technological systems, reinforcing its status as a strategic industrial material rather than a pure financial asset.

This shift changes the cyclical behavior of silver prices. Unlike gold, which responds primarily to monetary conditions and real interest rates, silver now reacts to industrial production cycles, capital expenditure trends, and supply-chain constraints in advanced technology sectors.

Supply Constraints and Structural Deficits

While industrial demand has expanded rapidly, supply has struggled to keep pace. Global silver markets have experienced consecutive years of deficits, with demand exceeding mine production and recycling by significant margins. 

Estimates suggest cumulative shortages have reached hundreds of millions of ounces since 2021, forcing markets to rely on inventory drawdowns and dishoarding to balance supply.

Several structural factors explain the constrained supply response. Unlike gold, most silver production occurs as a byproduct of mining other metals such as copper, lead, or zinc. 

As a result, higher silver prices alone cannot quickly stimulate new supply; output depends heavily on broader mining cycles and capital investment decisions in unrelated metals markets.

Recycling has risen modestly as prices increased, but the additional material has been insufficient to close the gap between supply and demand. Even with recycling reaching multi-year highs, the market still faces a sizable deficit, underscoring the structural nature of the imbalance.

Persistent deficits are already influencing market expectations. Analysts anticipate the global silver shortfall will continue through 2026, reinforcing the narrative that industrial demand — rather than speculative investment — is the primary driver of long-term price trends.

Market Implications: A Metal Between Two Worlds

Silver’s industrial transition has significant implications for market behavior. Traditionally, buyers viewed silver as a high-beta version of gold — a monetary asset that amplified moves in precious metals markets. 

Increasingly, however, silver acts more like a hybrid commodity, influenced simultaneously by macroeconomic conditions and manufacturing cycles.

Recent market volatility illustrates this dual identity. Price swings reflect not only changes in interest-rate expectations but also shifts in industrial demand outlooks, solar installations, and technology investment trends. 

Analysts now emphasize that silver is attempting to “step out of gold’s shadow,” highlighting its evolving role within commodity markets.

The consequence is a new volatility regime. Silver may rally during periods of industrial expansion even when monetary conditions are neutral, or decline when manufacturing slows despite strong safe-haven demand. 

This divergence from gold challenges traditional precious-metal frameworks and forces investors to reconsider how silver fits into portfolios.

Conclusion

From a macroeconomic perspective, silver’s industrial transition reflects a broader shift in global commodity markets. Metals once valued primarily for monetary or ornamental purposes are becoming core inputs into digital and energy infrastructure. 

This transformation blurs the distinction between “precious” and “industrial” commodities, reshaping how markets assess scarcity, valuation, and long-term demand. Silver’s evolution from a quasi-monetary asset to a strategic industrial input marks one of the most significant shifts in commodity markets of the past decade. 

Solar energy expansion, electric vehicle adoption, and AI infrastructure development have fundamentally altered the metal’s demand profile, embedding it within the physical architecture of modern technology.

At the same time, constrained supply and persistent deficits suggest that the market has yet to fully adjust to this new reality. 

As industrial demand continues to outpace production, silver pricing dynamics may increasingly resemble those of critical energy-transition metals rather than traditional precious metals.

The result is a metal caught between two worlds: still influenced by monetary forces, yet increasingly driven by the real economy’s push toward electrification and digitalization. 

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

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How to Start a Gold IRA

One of the main questions people ask when saving for retirement is how to maximize their asset growth. For many people, relying on stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and CDs has been their go-to, particularly when it’s done through a 401(k) or IRA account.

However, these financial assets may not always offer enough diversification, stability, or security, which is where a self-directed IRA can be useful. Self-directed IRA accounts can hold a wider variety of assets, including real estate, private equity, and precious metals like gold and silver.

Owning a variety of assets may help people hedge their losses, maintain their gains during tough economic times, and keep their assets secure during market volatility. Thankfully, you don’t have to be rich or at retirement age to start diversifying into alternative assets.

If you have a 401(k) or IRA and have wondered about how a gold IRA works, now may be a good time to learn about the benefits of these alternative options. Having a gold IRA could end up helping you navigate ever-changing markets and can help secure and grow your wealth.

For those who have never purchased precious metals before, the process may seem confusing. That’s why we’ve put together this guide, to help you understand what a gold IRA is and how it works.

If you’ve read the three previous chapters of this guide, you should now have a solid understanding of how a gold IRA works, what its benefits are, and the rules that gold IRAs are subject to. Now in this chapter you’ll find out how to start a gold IRA.

5 Steps to Start a Gold IRA

Beginning the process of opening a gold IRA is simple, especially when you partner with precious metals experts like Goldco who know the ins and outs of this type of IRA. While it’s not difficult to start purchasing precious metals, you want to make sure you know all the rules and follow them so that you can avoid unnecessary taxes and penalties.

1. Choose the Type of Gold IRA

The type of self-directed gold IRA you set up will be dependent on how you want to fund your IRA. Most people will choose to fund their gold IRA through a rollover from an existing retirement account such as a 401(k), and they’ll often choose to open a Traditional gold IRA so that they can utilize pre-tax retirement savings.

If you’re transferring or rolling over funds from a Roth account, you will need to choose a Roth gold IRA. You can also open a Roth gold IRA if you want to do a Roth conversion.

2. Decide on a Funding Source

The funding source for your gold IRA is dependent on what type of gold IRA you open. If you open a Traditional gold IRA, you can’t fund it with transfers or rollovers from Roth accounts such as a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k). But a Roth gold IRA can be funded with rollovers from pre-tax or Roth accounts.

Numerous types of retirement accounts can be used to fund a gold IRA. The chart below contains information on which types of accounts can be used to fund a gold IRA.

You may want to check with your tax advisor before making any changes to see if there are tax implications and confirm that your current retirement accounts allow transfers or rollovers.

3. Choose a Self-Directed Gold IRA Custodian

Like any other IRA assets, gold IRA assets need to be administered by a custodian per IRS regulations. Working with precious metals specialist, like those at Goldco, can help you find a custodian experienced with gold IRAs. Most people will choose to fund their gold IRA through a rollover from an existing retirement account such as a 401(k), and they’ll often choose to open a Traditional gold IRA so that they can utilize pre-tax retirement savings. to make sure your gold IRA is opened properly.

Once you have chosen your gold IRA custodian, you can open your gold IRA. When your gold IRA account is open, you can then start the rollover process.

4. Fund Your Self-Directed Gold IRA

Once you have opened your gold IRA, you can start the rollover process. Normally this is done by informing your plan administrator or IRA custodian of your rollover intentions.

Then you’ll sell assets in your current retirement account and roll them over into your gold IRA. Your current plan administrator or IRA custodian will normally be responsible for sending funds to your gold IRA custodian.

It can be very important to work with gold IRA specialists to make sure that the rollover process goes smoothly, that your funds end up where they’re supposed to, and that you’ve adhered to all IRS regulations. While the rollover process can be simple, if you make a mistake you may inadvertently open yourself up to tax liabilities or penalties.

After your funds have been rolled over to your gold IRA, you can then begin the process of determining which gold coins or gold bars you want to buy with those funds.

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5. Select, Purchase, and Store Your Gold

Now that your self-directed gold IRA is funded, it’s time to choose which gold coins or gold bars you want to buy. Remember that certain types of gold coins aren’t eligible for IRAs.

That’s why it can help to work with partners like Goldco who offer IRA-eligible gold coins to ensure that you don’t expose yourself to tax liability by buying the wrong type of gold.

After you’ve purchased your gold coins or gold bars, they will be administered by your IRA custodian and stored at a bullion depository. This ensures that your gold is there when you need it.

Safeguard Your Retirement with Gold

By setting up a self-directed gold IRA, you can rest easy knowing your assets are protected with gold. Diversifying your portfolio with gold can be a great way to protect your hard-earned retirement savings from market fluctuations and economic crises.

There’s no better time than today to start thinking about buying gold. With the economy facing its fair share of difficulties, a gold IRA may be just what you need to help you protect your assets.

Setting up a self-directed gold IRA can be done easily, especially when you work with Goldco’s experts.

Whether you want to learn more about gold IRAs, start the gold IRA rollover process, or just buy gold coins, Goldco can help you protect your retirement savings with gold.

No matter your age or stage in life, Goldco has precious metals options for everyone.

By simply filling out our contact form, we’ll connect you with experienced representatives who can answer your questions, offer valuable reference materials, and help you navigate the gold purchase process.

We’re ready to help you facilitate the diversification of your retirement portfolio so you can feel more in control of your financial future.

The post Chapter 4: How to Start a Gold IRA appeared first on Goldco.

How to Move Your 401(k) to Gold Without Penalty

Retirement planning isn’t something that you start doing when you’re a few years away from retirement. It’s something you start as early in your career as you can. There’s no substitute for time in the market when it comes to building up your retirement savings.

As you get older, you may start looking into more ways to protect the money you’ve already put aside for retirement. If you have a 401(k) from a previous employer that is sitting idle, or if your current retirement plan options don’t leave you enthused, a 401(k) to IRA rollover could offer you more options to put your money to better use.

One popular option is to roll over 401(k) assets into a gold IRA. The rollover process can allow you to move your 401(k) into gold tax-free and penalty-free.

A gold IRA is a type of self-directed retirement account that gives you greater control over your assets. Moving your savings into this kind of account can open up more options, such as real estate, private bonds, private equity, and precious metals like gold and silver.

Purchasing precious metals is a popular option because gold and silver have been used as a time-tested means of storing wealth that can weather numerous economic changes, giving your portfolio diversity and stability. The price of precious metals often increases even in tough economic times, meaning that your portfolio can still get a boost even during the worst throes of a financial crisis.

Like all 401(k) and other retirement plans, a gold IRA has rules and regulations that you need to be aware of. The last thing you want to do is decide to roll over your account and be hit with taxes and penalties because you didn’t do things correctly.

So, how do you move your 401(k) to gold without penalty? This guide will help you understand what a 401(k) is, how it works, its benefits, and how to effectively roll over your 401(k) to gold without incurring taxes and penalties

What Is a 401(k) Plan?

Section 401(k) of the Internal Revenue Code allows individuals to make contributions to a retirement account in a tax-deferred manner. This means that they will not be taxed on that contribution until they take a distribution (at age 59½  or later). The following guidelines are set forth by the IRS:

• Elective salary deferrals are excluded from the employee’s taxable income (except for designated Roth deferrals).
• Employers can contribute to employees’ accounts through matching.
• Distributions, including earnings, are includible in taxable income at retirement (except for qualified distributions of designated Roth accounts).

Employer matching is a valuable way for individuals to save additional money for retirement if an employer offers that plan, and some even refer to it as “free money.”

If you’ve worked for multiple employers, you may have multiple accounts that aren’t being actively managed. Very often these orphaned accounts are automatically held in “safe” assets that don’t make much money. It’s also important to remember that management fees and fund fees can still be taken out of your 401(k) even when you aren’t actively contributing.

One way to avoid these situations is through a 401(k) rollover, in which you move assets from your 401(k) to an IRA. That has the added benefit of potentially broadening your financial choices.

401(k)s are subject to required minimum distributions (RMDs), which require individuals aged 73 and older to take a specific amount in distributions each year. Without dedicated planning, RMDs could cause you to pull more money from your retirement accounts than you want, which could subject you to more taxes than you would like.

What Are the Benefits?

There are many more benefits to a 401(k) plan that include:

• Allowing employees to save money easier by automatically withdrawing from their paychecks into their retirement accounts.
• Employer matching contributions to help employees build their nest egg for retirement.
• Tax-deferred contributions, meaning that the money you contribute will not be taxed. If you are making $45,000 a year and you contribute $5,000 to your 401(k), you will be taxed on $40,000 of income rather than the full $45,000, meaning you pay lower taxes on your income. These contribution limits can change annually. Check with your accountant or with the IRS for the latest contribution limits. You will, however, need to pay income taxes on your distributions in the future.
• Potential for borrowing from your 401(k) to pay for: unforeseen medical emergencies, burial or funeral expenses for the family, education, purchase of a principal residence, to prevent eviction, and to repair damage to your principal residence after certain casualty losses. While this is an option, it may hamper your future retirement savings.

To add to these benefits, you can consider a gold IRA rollover. Knowing how to roll over your 401(k) means keeping all the great benefits of a tax-advantaged retirement account, plus the peace of mind of knowing that your assets can be secured with precious metals.

Who Can Open in an IRA?

Anyone with earned income, and their spouses if married filing jointly, can start and contribute money to this retirement account. You can contribute even if you have a 401(k) or similar retirement plan at work. The only limit is to how much money you are able to contribute to your accounts.

Types of IRA Accounts

If you are eligible, there are numerous types of IRAs available. These include:

• Traditional: Open with pre-tax dollars, gains accrue tax-free, withdrawals are taxed as regular income. If your income is below certain thresholds, your contributions may be tax-deductible.
• Roth: Contributions aren’t tax deductible and are made with post-tax dollars. Earnings and withdrawals are not taxed.
• SEP: Simplified Employee Pension, which is similar to a Traditional IRA, but is funded by an employer or self-employed individual.
• SIMPLE: Savings Incentive Match Plan for Employees, which is similar to a 401(k) plan, but has lower contribution limits and lower administrative costs.
• Self-Directed: Follows the same eligibility and contribution rules as a Traditional or Roth IRA, but with the ability to purchase alternative assets like real estate and precious metals.

Because these accounts provide tax benefits for retirement savings, there are an abundance of rules that must be followed. These rules include requirements for contributions, withdrawals, and the types of assets that can be included in your portfolio.

We’ll start off with some general rules and then focus more specifically on self-directed and gold IRA rules that you need to know.

General Contribution Rules

The IRS sets contribution limits which must be followed in order to avoid penalties. The following guidelines will help you understand contribution limits for IRAs:

• Limited to $7,000 in contributions per year ($8,000 if you’re over age 50).
• Contributions are across all IRAs, so if you have multiple accounts, you are limited to that $7,000 total across all your accounts.
• Contributions are per person, not per account–potential to contribute to multiple accounts in the same year.
• Rollovers or transfers from 401(k), TSP, IRA or similar accounts into an IRA or other eligible retirement plan are not subject to annual contribution limits.

Penalties

The IRS sets forth penalties for not following regulations dealing with retirement accounts. Here are a few rules to be mindful of so you know how to move a 401(k) to a gold IRA without any penalties:

• If you exceed the annual contribution limits, you may incur a penalty of 6% per year. Example: if you exceed the contribution limit by $500, you would be penalized $30 every year until the mistake is corrected
• If you have an IRA, you are not allowed to hold collectibles, which includes artwork, rugs, antiques, stamps, and other items as defined by subsection 408(m)(2) of the Internal Revenue Code. Tax penalties may result. This does not include qualified precious metals that are exempt under subsection 408(m)(3).
• Withdrawing any distributions before reaching the age of 59½ incurs a 10% penalty plus any taxes due. Exceptions include death or disability of the account owner, withdrawals to pay certain medical bills, first time home purchases, and higher education expenses.

Gold IRA Rules

Purchasing gold can be a great way to keep your portfolio diversified, but to take advantage of it and maximize your savings, you should be aware of the self-directed and gold IRA rules.

First, it’s important to understand the rules that govern self-directed IRAs and acceptable assets as a whole. These include subsection 408(m) of the US tax code, which prohibits accounts from acquiring collectibles and defines collectibles as:

• “any work of art,
• any rug or antique,
• any metal or gem,
• any stamp or coin,
• any alcoholic beverage, or
• any other tangible personal property specified by the Secretary for purposes of this subsection.”

There are, however, exceptions made for some coins and bullion in subsection 408(m)(3), namely:

• Gold American Eagle coins minted by the US Mint are not considered collectibles.
• Other gold coins or bars must have a fineness “equal to or exceeding the minimum fineness” of a contract market, which for gold is .995, or 99.5% purity.
• Gold must be held by an custodian. Home storage of IRA assets is illegal and can result in massive fines and penalties.

In addition, if you already own gold, you cannot add that gold to your IRA. But you can open a gold IRA and purchase new gold to add to your account.

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Learn More About Diversifying Your Savings With The Ultimate Gold & Silver Guide

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Tax-Deductible Contributions

Opening an IRA to reduce taxes is not uncommon, but there are deduction limits set by the IRS to be aware of. Some general rules include:

• Roth account contributions cannot be deducted.
• Work retirement plan deductions may be limited if you or your spouse are covered by a retirement plan through your employer, and if your income exceeds certain levels.
• No work retirement plan means you are allowed to take a deduction in full if you and your spouse (if married) aren’t covered by an employer-sponsored retirement plan.

Contribution and Deduction Limits for 2025

To better understand rules related to contributions and deductions in 2025, refer to the following charts:

2025 IRA Contribution and Deduction Limits Effect of Modified AGI on Deductible Contributions If You ARE Covered by a Retirement Plan at Work

2025 IRA Contribution and Deduction Limits Effect of Modified AGI on Deductible Contributions if You are NOT Covered by a Retirement Plan at Work

Rollover Rules

Rollovers allow you to move existing retirement assets from a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, or similar retirement account into an IRA. Since rollover contributions are not subject to the annual contribution limits, they can be a useful tool in building up your retirement savings.

In general there are three types of rollovers:

• Direct Rollover – a direct rollover occurs when a distribution from a 401(k) or similar retirement plan is made directly to another retirement plan or to an IRA account. No taxes are withheld from this rollover.
• Trustee-to-Trustee Transfer – this transfer occurs when a distribution from an IRA occurs and the distribution amount is sent directly from the first IRA custodian to another custodian or to a retirement plan. No taxes are withheld from this transfer.
• 60-Day Rollover – this rollover occurs when a distribution from an IRA or retirement plan is made to you. You then have 60 days to roll over all or a portion of that distribution into an IRA or retirement plan. Because taxes will be withheld from this distribution, you will have to use other funds if you wish to roll over the full amount of the distribution.

Because of the potential tax consequences of a 60-day rollover, people who want to move a 401(k) to a gold IRA without penalty generally choose the direct rollover or trustee-to-trustee transfer. These ensure that their retirement savings are rolled over without taxes or penalties. `

Additionally, there is a one-per-year rollover rule. This means that you can only make one rollover from the same IRA per year.

You also can’t within that 1-year period make a rollover from the IRA to which you distributed that rollover. You can read more about it at the IRS website.

This one-per-year rule does not apply to:

• rollovers from traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs (Roth conversions)
• trustee-to-trustee transfers to another IRA
• IRA-to-plan rollovers (e.g., IRA to 401(k))
• plan-to-IRA rollovers (e.g., 401(k) to IRA)
• plan-to-plan rollovers (e.g.,  401(k) to 401(k))

There are additional restrictions on rollovers, such as the fact that RMDs cannot be rolled over. When you decide on doing a rollover, the IRS website has lots of useful information on the topic, including a rollover chart that shows which accounts can be rolled over into which.

You may also want to consult a tax professional to ensure that you aren’t making mistakes that could subject yourself to unnecessary taxes.

Which Gold Coins and Gold Bars Are Eligible?

By choosing eligible gold coins and other precious metals products, you can take advantage of the incredible opportunity that precious metals offer. It is helpful to know the rules prior to purchasing your gold so that you can ensure that your purchases remain tax-free and penalty-free.

Buying Eligible Gold

When learning how to buy gold for a gold IRA, it’s important to understand the rules. As discussed above, IRAs are forbidden from acquiring collectibles. But because of the exceptions in the Internal Revenue Code, there are numerous gold coins which are still eligible.

Some of the rules that have to be followed when buying gold coins or gold bars include:

• Level of fineness for eligible coins and bars – .995
• Many older gold coins are not eligible, but among more recently produced coins there are exceptions laid out in the Code. Here are some of the more popular eligible gold coins:
  • Gold American Eagle
  • Gold American Buffalo
  • Canadian Gold Maple Leaf
  • Gold Lucky Dragon
  • Gold Australian Saltwater Crocodiles
  • UK Royal Mint Gold Lunar Series Coins
  • Gold Wright Flyer
  • Gold Washington Monument
  • Gold Independence Hall
  • Gold Phoenix
  • Gold Liberty
  • Gold Valor

• Gold IRA assets must be administered by your custodian and stored at a bullion depository.
• If you already own gold, you cannot add that gold to your IRA, but you can open a gold IRA and purchase new, eligible gold.

Additional Eligible Precious Metals

You can also purchase other types of precious metals coins and bullion that meet IRS specifications. Those include silver, platinum, and palladium that meet the following minimum fineness:

• Silver – .999
• Platinum – .9995
• Palladium– .9995

Ready to Start?

The rules governing how to move a 401(k) to a gold IRA without penalty may seem difficult at first, but the more you learn about them, the more they begin to make sense. Goldco has had thousands of customers navigate the  process, with over $3 billion in precious metals placements. If they can do it, so can you.

But it’s crucial to understand the rules and regulations before you start. Not paying attention to these rules and regulations or, even worse, deliberately flouting them, could cost you dearly.

Once you’ve familiarized yourself with the rules and think you’re comfortable with moving your 401(k) to a gold IRA without penalty, you’ll want to learn the steps to start. Follow the next chapter in this guide to learn more about the five easy steps to getting started.

The post Chapter 3: How to Move Your 401(k) to Gold Without Penalty appeared first on Goldco.

If you’ve ever read mainstream financial media, you’ll notice that gold doesn’t seem to get mentioned all that often as a major asset. When the gold price takes off, of course, then the media is full of articles about how great gold is doing, but that’s too late for most people who could have benefited from gold’s price growth.

Because writing about gold doesn’t bring in as many clicks or as much ad revenue as writing about the next hot growth stock, gold too often gets short shrift. But while many advisors and financial pundits may ignore gold, that could mean missing out on the many advantages that gold can bring.

As you work towards building a well-diversified retirement portfolio, it can help to make sure you know all your options, especially when it comes to gold. Whether you’re interested in rolling over existing retirement savings into a gold IRA or just making direct cash purchases of gold, we’re here to clear up any mystery around the benefits of gold.

Precious metals like gold have numerous advantages as part of a well-diversified portfolio, and tax-advantaged retirement accounts do too. Putting the two together can result in a powerful tool to help you achieve your financial goals.

5 Advantages of a Gold IRA

Gold IRAs have numerous advantages for savers, both those nearing retirement and those earlier in their careers. The diversification that gold gives you may help you adjust the risk profile of your portfolio and may help you minimize losses.

Individuals who put gold into their portfolios during the 2008 financial crisis saw their holdings strongly outperform those who kept their assets solely in stocks. And those portfolios that held gold continued to grow stronger after the crisis hit its lowest point, in many cases for years afterward.

Let’s take a more detailed look at the advantages of a gold IRA.

1. Gold Can Help Portfolio Diversification

A diversified portfolio may mean thinking outside the box of stocks and bonds, which is what many Americans are most familiar with. Concentrating your assets in one place also concentrates your risk. Ever heard the saying, “Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket”?

“Don’t put all of your eggs in on basket”?

By diversifying your portfolio with gold, you can ensure that your assets aren’t completely at the mercy of Wall Street for their performance. If financial markets take a downturn, if bond markets become illiquid, if stock markets crash, those traditional assets may all perform poorly.

Alternatives like gold IRAs can leave a portion of your portfolio protected during challenging economic times, helping you diversify and shift risk away from financial assets and leaving a portion of your portfolio protected during those times when the stock market experiences weakness. Very often, the weaker the stock market and the economy perform, the better precious metals perform, potentially making them ideal assets to protect your portfolio when a recession is on the horizon.

2. Protection Against Market Fluctuations and Volatility

Physical gold acts as a hedge against dips in volatile markets. The boom and bust of the business cycle is all but a certainty, with stock market crashes and recessions occurring with unfortunate regularity.

Gold has acted as a hedge against other assets. Unlike paper assets like stocks and bonds that can become worthless as the companies that issue them fail, gold has always been worth something, and has remained in demand for thousands of years.

3. More Control Over Your Assets

Purchasing a gold IRA also can provide you with a greater element of control over your assets. For many people who may save for retirement through an employer-sponsored 401(k) plan, the options available to them are often limited.

That’s why so many people roll over assets from a 401(k) account to an IRA account, because IRAs generally offer more options. And with a gold IRA, the options for IRAs become even greater.

By opening a gold IRA, you can gain an extra element of control over your portfolio, as you are the one who determines what types of gold or silver you hold.

A great advantage of having a gold IRA is that assets can be transferred easily and without tax consequences among retirement accounts. So someone who wants to roll over a portion of a 401(k) account into a gold IRA can do so relatively easily. And if that person decides in the future to sell some of those precious metals assets to buy into stocks or bonds, that type of transaction can be done too.

With the control over your assets that you get from a gold IRA you can:

• Help diversify your portfolio;
• Give yourself greater peace of mind;
• Ensure that the decisions you make will directly impact your retirement and financial well-being.

Learn More About Diversifying Your Savings With The Ultimate Gold & Silver Guide

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Learn More About Diversifying Your Savings With The Ultimate Gold & Silver Guide

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4. Potential for Gold Price Growth

There’s a dirty little secret that mainstream financial firms don’t want you to know about: Gold is the best performing asset of the 21st century. In fact, it’s grown significantly more than stock markets have.

But you’ll still see stocks recommended for asset growth rather than gold. Why? Well, there are two potential reasons:

1. Nostalgia about the 1982-2000 stock market boom. That was a period of unprecedented growth, with stock markets growing around 17% per year on average. But we haven’t seen growth like that since then, and we may never see growth like that again.
2. Many financial firms make their money off fees associated with stock trades, asset management, etc. They don’t make money selling people gold because people hold gold for the long term. Plus some financial firms don’t offer gold custodial services.

Financial advisors and stockbrokers want to be able to charge for each trade, plus take a small management fee every year for each type of asset you own. But if you own gold for years and years, they can’t charge you trading fees because your assets are safe, secure, and not moving.

While gold may be bad for some financial firms, it’s good for you because your gains aren’t being nickeled and dimed to death through fees.

With a gold IRA you’ll generally end up paying a few hundred dollars a year in custodial and storage fees. But compare that to the 1-2% annual fee you would likely pay to a financial advisor to manage your assets, which is on top of all your other expense ratios, and you see that fees on your gold purchases could end up lower than those on conventional financial assets.

Traditional advisor fees can be death by a thousand cuts, but a gold IRA may eliminate that and keep more money in your pocket.

With a gold IRA, you can benefit from gold’s stability, take advantage of future price growth which can sometimes be substantial, and still have immediate access to your money should you wish to sell your gold or transfer your wealth into other assets.

5. IRA Tax Advantages

Purchasing a gold IRA offers the same tax advantages as a conventional IRA. You can purchase gold with pre-tax dollars (or post-tax dollars with a Roth gold IRA), roll over existing retirement assets with no tax consequences, and defer taxation until you decide to take a distribution.

And just like with contributions to a Traditional IRA, annual contributions to a Traditional gold IRA can even be tax-deductible. That also means that all the same IRA rules apply to a gold IRA:

• Early distributions may incur income taxes and an additional 10% penalty;
• Required minimum distributions (RMDs) must be taken after age 73, except for a Roth gold IRA, which is exempt from RMDs;
• Annual contributions are limited to $6,500 (or $7,500 if you’re over age 50).

Rollover contributions to a gold IRA are not limited by the normal annual contribution limit, so you can roll over $10,000, $100,000, or $1 million or more from existing retirement accounts into a gold IRA, and you can do it tax-free.

That allows you to protect your retirement savings with gold without having to take a tax hit. And when you choose to take a distribution, you can choose to take it either in cash or in physical gold.

For some people, keeping gold in an IRA can even offer better tax treatment than gold held outside an IRA. That can keep taxes from eating away at your returns. Don’t underestimate the benefits of a gold IRA to allow you to use pre-tax dollars to buy gold.

Is a Gold IRA Right for You?

Gold IRAs can offer many advantages to Americans, whether you’re nearing retirement or are earlier in your career. You don’t need to put all of your assets into a gold IRA, as simply moving small percentages of your assets into precious metals can reap long-term benefits.

Some people may wonder if a 401(k) or self-directed IRA a better option. Very often they wonder this after they’ve left an employer and still have 401(k) assets held in their old retirement plan.

When you leave your employer, you have the option to roll over your retirement savings into an IRA, which may be a good opportunity to explore a self-directed gold IRA, which offers diversity and assets that can be more stable through economic downturns.

If you’re interested in learning more about the IRA rollover process, it can help to familiarize yourself with the IRA rules and regulations surrounding gold IRA rollovers, which you can find in the next chapter.

Once you’re ready to start a gold IRA, or even if you have additional questions that we haven’t covered here, Goldco’s representatives can help you learn more about the options you have available to you.

With over $2 billion in precious metals placements and over 5,000 5-star reviews, Goldco works hard to make sure that anyone can benefit from owning gold. Call us today to find out why so many people trust gold to protect their hard-earned retirement savings.

The post Chapter 2: What Are the Benefits of a Gold IRA? appeared first on Goldco.

3 Primary Reasons to Consider Adding Physical Gold to Your Portfolio Include:

1. Portfolio Diversification

You can diversify your portfolios with a variety of assets like stocks and bonds, mutual funds, and ETFs. But you can also purchase gold and other precious metals through a precious metals IRA.

Because of gold’s safe haven status, many flock to physical assets during uncertain financial times, which can cause the price of gold to rise even when markets are declining. That can make gold a good choice for a well-diversified portfolio that gives you the stability you need during tough times.

2. Hedge Against Volatile Markets

Market volatility can impact your savings portfolio. But a volatile market doesn’t mean you have to give up safeguarding your assets.

In fact, owning gold in your portfolio or safeguarding your tax-advantaged savings with a 401(k) rollover could help you manage the ups and downs that come with a fluctuating market.

3. Gold Holds Its Value

Gold can be a good choice during good times and bad. It maintains its purchasing power over time, and can outperform other assets during times of economic uncertainty. If you’re looking for something that can help safeguard your wealth from the unknowns, consider looking into a gold IRA.

Learn How to Safeguard Your Retirement Savings with Gold

If you’ve been struggling to find a way to safeguard  your retirement savings, a precious metals IRA could be the answer. No matter how many years you have until retirement, it’s never too late to start planning.

Traditionally, IRAs have been a safety net for people without access to employer-sponsored plans like a 401(k). By buying gold through a precious metals IRA, you get the same tax advantages as any other IRA, but with the added security of owning physical gold.

If you’ve been considering buying gold, we know there’s a lot to learn. From the numerous benefits, to the rules for holding gold, our Beginner’s Guide to a Gold IRA Guide is a one-stop resource to get the information you need to start making smart decisions with precious metals.

The post Beginner’s Guide to a Gold IRA appeared first on Goldco.

What Is a Gold IRA?

As a retirement saver, you’re constantly faced with choices and tradeoffs.  You want your retirement portfolio to make big gains, but you understand in the back of your mind that your portfolio can be subject to huge losses.

Many successful savers are those who protect their portfolios from major losses, not necessarily those who make the biggest gains. As Warren Buffett famously said, “the first rule of investing is never to lose money, and the second rule is never to forget the first rule.”

“The first rule of investing is never to lose money, and the second rule is never to forget the first rule.”

One time-honored way of protecting your assets against loss is by purchasing gold. Individuals have sought the safety and security of gold for centuries, and today is no different.

When stock markets crash, or when fears of market weakness emerge, many people rush to the safe haven of gold. But even outside times of financial difficulty, owning gold can be a smart way to diversify your portfolio, protect your wealth, and make solid gains.

One popular method of purchasing precious metals is through a gold IRA. Gold IRAs offer the same tax advantages of conventional IRAs, but allow individuals to protect their retirement savings with tangible physical gold, which can help safeguard them against volatility in financial markets.

Given gold’s reputation for long-term stability, it is a sought-after asset for people looking to protect and diversify their savings portfolio. If you’re looking to protect your retirement savings, ensure that you have enough to live comfortably in retirement, and pass money on to your heirs, keep reading our beginner’s guide to a gold IRA to find out more about the numerous advantages of a gold-backed IRA.

What Is a Self-Directed Gold IRA?

Unlike conventional IRAs with which you may be familiar, a gold IRA is a type of self-directed IRA. Before we address gold IRAs, it is important to understand the basics of a self-directed IRA.

A self-directed IRA (SDIRA) is an IRA that gives you greater control and flexibility over the assets you purchase. It allows you to hold alternative assets that aren’t found in most conventional IRAs. While self-directed IRAs require the use of a custodian who administers the account, you as the account holder actually get to manage the account directly.

Some common forms of alternative assets allowed in a self-directed IRA include:

• Real estate
• Promissory notes
• Gold, silver, and other precious metals
• Cryptocurrency
• Mineral rights and water rights
• Commodities

A gold IRA is simply a type of self-directed IRA that focuses on precious metals such as gold coins and gold bars.

How Does A Gold IRA Work?

A gold IRA allows individuals to purchase gold and other precious metals while still enjoying the same tax advantages of an IRA retirement account. Just like conventional IRAs, a gold IRA can be a traditional IRA in which people use pre-tax dollars to purchase gold, or a Roth IRA in which they use post-tax dollars. Those with SEP or SIMPLE IRAs can also use their retirement savings to open a gold IRA.

A common method of funding gold IRAs is through rollovers or transfers from existing retirement accounts such as a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, IRA, or similar account into a gold IRA. This allows individuals to lock in gains they may have made in their current retirement accounts and transfer that wealth into precious metals, which can provide more protection and stability.

Gold is a tangible asset that anyone can own and hold, and it offers stability against inflation, financial turmoil, and economic downturns. Thanks to provisions in the tax code, people can purchases gold through a gold IRA, allowing them to gain all the same tax benefits as a conventional IRA.

There are many advantages to including gold, silver or other precious metals in your IRA portfolio, including:

• Stability for your portfolio;
• Lessening risk as you age and plan for retirement;
• Locking in gains you’ve made and transferring that wealth into precious metals.

Individuals can contribute to a new gold IRA account or, more commonly, roll over a portion of their current retirement accounts (401(k) rollover) into a gold IRA to diversify their portfolio. With the risk of recession being ever present, there really isn’t a bad time to consider precious metals.

What Is a Gold IRA Rollover?

A rollover IRA is a term for an individual retirement account (IRA) that is funded by moving funds from a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, or similar retirement account into an IRA. The main difference between a 401(k) and an IRA is that an IRA is normally opened by an individual, whereas a 401(k) is offered by an employer.

With a rollover IRA, people can use existing retirement funds to take advantage of a broader range of assets than are available through 401(k) accounts alone. And by opening a self-directed IRA, you have even more options, such as a gold IRA.

Rollover IRAs are most often created when changing jobs or retiring, as they allow employees to move their current 401(k) or other retirement account balances into an IRA account that will offer a better array of assets and potentially superior performance.

When performing an IRA rollover, funds from existing tax-advantaged accounts can be rolled over into a new IRA tax-free. You can even roll over funds from multiple retirement accounts into a single self-directed IRA, making it easier for you to consolidate and manage your retirement savings.

With a gold IRA rollover, individuals can minimize the tax impact of their gold assets too, since distributions are normally subject to ordinary income tax rates. Particularly for those in lower tax brackets, that can result in gold held in an IRA being taxed at a lower rate than if it were not in an IRA. And for those who open a Roth gold IRA, they won’t be taxed at all on the gains on their gold.

What Is a Self-Directed IRA Custodian?

Like any other IRA, your self-directed gold IRA needs to have a custodian per IRS regulations. Your gold IRA custodian is responsible for administering your account and ensuring that all laws and regulations are followed to avoid penalties. Additionally, your gold IRA assets will be stored at a bullion depository, ensuring that your gold remains safe and secure.

Most IRA custodians are typically banks, insurance companies, brokerage firms, or mutual fund companies. Many of these firms don’t offer self-directed IRA options, so if you want to start a gold IRA you would need to find a custodian who specializes in precious metals.

Goldco works with established gold IRA custodians to ensure that our customers are able to start a gold IRA and find a self-directed IRA custodian with little difficulty. Choosing a custodian with knowledge of self-directed gold IRAs will help you ensure that your gold IRA assets are properly administered so that you don’t fall afoul of IRS regulations.

What Is Portfolio Diversification

Diversification is a strategic way of managing your savings portfolio to include various types of assets to reach specific financial goals over the long term. A well-diversified portfolio can offer you the potential for improving returns and protecting your principal without subjecting yourself to unnecessary concentration and risk.

Loading up on one stock or one industry could be costly if that stock or industry suddenly plummets. Likewise, reacting suddenly when the market changes can lead to knee-jerk decisions that don’t benefit you in the long term.

A diversified retirement portfolio can’t always offer large gains or prevent losses, but it is a strategy that some financial planners and fund managers use to create balance – and one way to effectively diversify can be by holding gold and silver.

Learn More About Diversifying Your Savings With The Ultimate Gold & Silver Guide

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Learn More About Diversifying Your Savings With The Ultimate Gold & Silver Guide

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The Precious Metals Strategic Edge: Portfolio Diversification

If you’re like many, you probably dream of a safe and comfortable retirement. It’s why you’ve worked hard and saved for so many years. But you probably also know that your retirement savings could disappear in an instant in the event of a stock market crash or a severe recession.

You don’t want to leave your retirement portfolio at the mercy of volatile financial markets that can put a major dent in your savings, which is why taking control of your future by purchasing a gold IRA can be a good option for protecting and diversifying your portfolio. Owning physical gold through a gold IRA can give you:

• Stability: Gold has consistently grown in value and maintained its purchasing power over time. While the US dollar has lost over 97% of its value since 1913, the price of gold has increased over 9,000%. Silver has fared well against the dollar too, with the silver price increasing over 4,500% since 1913.
• Security: The gold that you own in your gold IRA is securely stored at a bullion depository. You can take a distribution of either cash or gold from your gold IRA whenever you want, subject to any applicable taxes and IRS regulations, and after age 59½ those distributions are penalty-free.
• Simplicity: Understanding the value of gold doesn’t require special training, and you can easily check daily gold prices on your own.

Additionally, gold IRAs offer specific benefits that can be superior to those of other types of assets. These include:

• Wealth Protection: Gold has consistently grown in value over time, whereas the US dollar has consistently weakened over time through inflation and currency devaluation.
• Tax Advantages: Use pre-tax dollars to purchase gold, accrue tax-free gains, and only pay taxes upon distribution, just like a conventional IRA. Even better, you can learn how to diversify your 401(k) or IRA by rolling over existing assets to a gold IRA.
• Long-Term Financial Growth: Owning gold can be a great long-term choice because it holds its value against inflation and can help protect portfolio value during times of recession.
• Financial Control: Diversifying your assets with a gold IRA puts you in control of your wealth.

Are Gold ETFs a Good Way to Diversify a Portfolio?

Some individuals have turned to popular gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). ETFs offer you the ability to own a number of different assets, some of which you may otherwise have difficulty purchasing. This has been seen as a potential way to diversify a portfolio, since ETFs open up the range of options to allow ordinary people to enter new markets.

Unfortunately, there are several drawbacks to gold ETFs that can make them a less than ideal choice if you’re considering gold:

• You don’t own the gold in a gold ETF: You actually only own the shares in a fund, which owns a certain quantity of gold. Share prices can fluctuate not only because of changes in the price of gold, but also based on whether individuals decide to liquidate their shares.
• You can’t take physical delivery of gold: Except for some who own millions of dollars worth of shares, most gold ETF owners are not able to take delivery of the physical gold owned by the ETF. That’s why it’s important to look at ETF contracts and prospectuses.
• Custodial arrangements are opaque: Custodians for gold ETFs can also contract with sub-custodians, which can make it hard to track who is holding the gold, where it is located, and whether or not it is otherwise encumbered.
• Taxes and fees: Fees associated with fund managers, listings on exchanges, custodial storage, and sales of fund assets can add up and may trigger certain tax consequences.
• Shares may or may not have sufficient gold backing: Funds may sell gold to meet expenses, which means shares may not be backed by as much gold as you thought.

Precious Metals Price Growth

While it may seem hard to believe, the history of gold as a freely-priced metal traded on world markets is relatively short.

Sure, gold has been bought and sold around the world for millennia, but for much of that time it was the basis for world currencies, often in a fixed price relationship with silver. Only after the link between gold and currencies was broken was gold able to shake off government efforts at fixing the gold price.

Until 1900, the US dollar was defined as a specific weight of silver. From 1900 on, the dollar was defined as a specific weight of gold, which worked out to be $20.67 per troy ounce of gold.

When FDR nationalized all gold and forbade private ownership of gold, he unilaterally devalued the dollar, with gold being valued thereafter at $35 an ounce. That $35 per ounce official price lasted until August 15, 1971, when President Nixon closed the gold window, severing the last official link between the dollar and gold.

But world gold markets had been taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities before that, as the price of gold sought to break through that $35 barrier. All through the 1960s, the London Gold Pool attempted to maintain that price of $35 an ounce, without success. And when Nixon finally threw in the towel, gold was finally able to appreciate freely.

From 1971 onward, the gold price took off. Since that time, gold has performed very well, with its roughly 7.5% average annualized rate of growth putting it on par with popular stock market indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.

Gold’s performance in the 21st century has been similarly strong, with a nearly 9% annualized rate of growth that has put stock markets to shame. With growing economic uncertainty, inflation, and fears of a weakening economy, the gold price could continue to make strong gains in the future.

Let Goldco Help You Diversify Your Retirement Portfolio

Purchasing gold and other precious metals doesn’t have to be difficult, and diversifying your portfolio with gold can be a great way to protect your valuable retirement savings from market fluctuations and the ever-changing global economic environment. When it comes to holding gold to diversify your portfolio, our IRA specialists  can provide the information you need to make the best decision for you and your family.

Whether you want to learn about how to diversify your IRA, start a gold IRA transfer or gold 401(k) rollover, or just buy gold coins through a direct cash purchase, we’re here to help you protect your hard-earned retirement savings and create a well-diversified portfolio. It doesn’t matter if you’re nearing retirement or just starting out in your career – Goldco has options for every interested precious metals buyer.

With guidance from our precious metals specialists, you can feel confident that you’re preparing effectively for the future. If you’d like to know more about how a precious metals IRA works, about gold IRA rollovers, or about additional precious metal options, contact us today to get started.

The post Chapter 1: What Is a Gold IRA and How Does It Work? appeared first on Goldco.

With a price gain of 65% last year, gold had its third-best year since 1970. But will the yellow metal be able to keep that momentum going through 2026?

So far this year the answer seems to be yes, as gold has risen another 20%, continuing to set all-time highs. The jump from $4,000 to $5,000 seemed to come relatively easily, and Bank of America analysts now believe that gold could hit $6,000 within months.

If you already own gold, you’re probably enjoying watching the value of your gold holdings climbing ever higher. But if you’re looking to buy more gold, you’re probably wishing you had bought gold earlier when it was cheaper.

Now the question everyone wants to know is, will gold continue shooting ever higher? And where could the gold price end up in 2026?

Why Is the Price of Gold Rising?

Like all goods, the gold price is determined by the interplay between supply and demand. According to the World Gold Council, there are four main categories that contribute to gold demand: Jewelry Fabrication, Investment, Central Banks, and Technology, with Jewelry Fabrication and Investment normally being the two largest factors.

Behind these major categories, however, are some trends in gold markets that are helping push the gold price higher. Let’s look at five of the reasons the price of gold continues to rise.

1. Gold Safe Haven Buying

Gold has served as a safe haven asset for centuries, and is one of the first assets people flock to during times of turmoil or uncertainty. Right now the US economy is facing economic uncertainty, with low consumer confidence, a weak job market, and persistent inflation.

Recession fears are growing, so people are turning to safe haven assets to try to help protect themselves ahead of any potential downturn. Gold is one of those safe havens, and the gold price has benefitted from this safe haven buying.

2. Central Bank Gold Purchases

Individuals aren’t the only ones buying gold as a safe haven, as central banks have increased their purchases of gold in recent years. Full numbers for 2025 haven’t been published yet, but total central bank gold purchases in 2024 exceeded 1,080 tonnes, with central banks buying more than four times as much gold in 2024 than they did in 2020.

While 2025 started off slow, perhaps due to rising gold prices, that pace picked up in the latter half of 2025, with central bank purchases in late 2025 nearly equaling the total amount of purchases in the first eight months of the year.

In fact, central banks now hold a greater percentage of reserves in the form of gold than they do in dollars, cementing gold’s status as a fundamental reserve asset. And gold buying by central banks is expected to continue into 2026 at an elevated rate, helping contribute to heightened gold demand.

3. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Could Boost Gold

It is widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve will, at some point, continue its series of interest rate cuts. Right now markets expect the next rate cut to come at the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected, to drop the federal funds rate to 3.25-3.50%.

Of course, if there were to be clear signs of economic deterioration in the interim, that next rate cut could come earlier. But right now, markets expect that first rate cut in June, with another possible rate cut of 25 basis points later in the year.

As the federal funds rate drops, so do interest rates on many bonds, including US Treasury bonds. Lower bond yields can make bonds a less attractive investment option for people who buy bonds as interest-bearing assets.

That could help boost the appeal of gold, which doesn’t pay interest. If you have a choice between US Treasury bonds that offer a low “guaranteed” interest rate, or an asset like gold that has already gained 20% this year, which do you think most people might choose?

4. Geopolitical Uncertainty Helping Drive Gold Demand

Uncertainty about the future performance of the US economy isn’t the only factor helping drive gold prices higher. Geopolitical uncertainty is starting to become an important factor this year too.

Tariffs may have been the threat in 2025, but trade war or even all-out war are fears in 2026. With a raid on Venezuela, the threat of intervention in Iran, and saber rattling surrounding Greenland, the world suddenly seems to be a very unstable place.

This heightened geopolitical uncertainty could help boost gold prices.

5. Heightened Consumer Interest in Gold

Any time you have an asset that climbs 65% in a single year, then goes on to make double digit gains and set new record highs in the first month of the next year, you’re going to have interest from people who wouldn’t normally give that asset a second look.

Gold has been the subject of numerous headlines over the past several months as it set all-time highs, passing $3,000 an ounce, then $4,000, and now $5,000. People are starting to sit up and take more notice of gold and are looking to add it to their portfolios.

Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), for instance, saw their strongest year of inflows ever, driven by demand from North America. Gold ETFs now hold a record 4,025 tonnes of gold, up almost 25% from 2024.

But it wasn’t just North Americans driving this demand. Asian gold holdings nearly doubled, and Europeans rushed to stock up on gold too. With so much momentum behind the gold price, and so much attention in the media, could 2026 end up being another record-breaking year?

And how might this increased attention play out in gold markets? Will ETFs drive the increase in retail gold holdings, or will physical gold coin and gold bar demand increase as well?

2026 is already a record-breaking year for gold in that it has already set numerous all-time highs. We’ll just have to see how high the gold price can go from here.

Are You Taking Advantage of Rising Gold Prices?

Gold’s performance over the past year shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who has studied the yellow metal and its historical price performance.

During the 1970s, the gold price rose at an annualized rate of over 30% per year over the course of the entire decade, and during the early part of the 2007-08 recession the gold price increased 26% as stock markets began to lose their footing.

During the 2008 crisis, the gold price rose nearly 25% during the same period that stock markets fell over 50%, and in the aftermath of the crisis the gold price rose almost 270% from its 2008 low to its 2011 high.

While some analysts today expect gold to hit $6,000 this year, others expect it to hit over $7,000. Given how many analysts’ bullish forecasts failed to anticipate gold’s phenomenal performance in 2025, it’s not inconceivable that even these seemingly bullish forecasts for 2026 could miss the mark to the low side again.

A 65% increase from today’s gold prices would put gold at over $8,000 an ounce. No one expected the gold price to rise that much last year, but it did. Could it happen again this year?

If you want to take advantage of rising gold prices to add gold to your portfolio, Goldco has numerous  gold coin options available for you, whether you choose to make a direct cash purchase of gold or prefer to hold your gold coins in a gold IRA.

With prices rising every day, now is the time to decide whether you want to start putting gold to work for you. Call Goldco today to talk to one of our specialists and learn more about your gold buying options.

The post Gold Price Rose 65% in 2025; Will 2026 See a Repeat? appeared first on Goldco.

What started in 2017 as a vision to create a more transparent and education-first precious metals firm has grown into a nationally recognized brand trusted by investors seeking clarity during uncertain economic cycles.

But this milestone isn’t just about looking back.

It’s about recognizing how the financial landscape has changed — and why more investors today are beginning to reassess the role of gold, silver, and tangible assets within their portfolios.

A Changing Economic Environment Is Driving New Conversations

Over the past several years, global markets have experienced historic shifts:
• Central banks increasing gold reserves at record levels
• Persistent inflation pressures impacting purchasing power
• Rising sovereign debt and evolving interest-rate policies
• Greater awareness of concentration risk inside traditional portfolios

For many investors — especially those nearing or entering retirement — these developments are creating a new focus on balance, stability, and long-term resilience.

According to Allegiance Gold Co-Founder and COO Alex Ebkarian, the conversation is evolving.

“Investors aren’t just asking how to grow wealth anymore,” Ebkarian said. “They’re asking how to protect purchasing power and reduce exposure to the same financial system. That shift toward durability is something we’re seeing every day.”

Why Physical Metals Are Back in the Spotlight

Gold has historically served as a hedge during periods of economic uncertainty. Today, that narrative is gaining traction again — not just among institutions, but among everyday investors seeking diversification beyond stocks and bonds.

Unlike paper assets, physical gold and silver represent tangible ownership. For many clients, that distinction provides a sense of stability that digital-only exposure may not offer.

Mark Naaman, CEO of Allegiance Gold, believes education is the key driver behind this renewed interest.

“When investors understand what they own and why they own it, decisions become clearer,” Naaman said. “Our goal has always been to provide transparent pricing, real guidance, and long-term relationships — not short-term reactions to headlines.”

Nine Years Built on People, Not Just Markets

To celebrate its anniversary, Allegiance Gold released a three-minute video featuring team members across operations, client services, and onboarding — highlighting the individuals who help clients navigate important financial decisions every day.

The decision to focus on employees reflects the company’s belief that trust isn’t built through marketing — it’s built through consistent service and education.

Over the past nine years, Allegiance Gold has been featured in major financial media and recognized for its growth, but leadership says the real milestone is the community of clients and team members who helped shape the company’s journey.

Looking Ahead: Education, Balance, and Long-Term Strategy

As Allegiance Gold moves toward its tenth year, the firm plans to continue expanding its educational resources, digital content, and client outreach.

Ebkarian believes the future of wealth protection will center on balance — not extremes.

“Every market cycle teaches investors to step back, reassess exposure, and introduce diversification where it makes sense,” he said. “Our responsibility is helping people move forward with clarity and confidence — regardless of the headlines.”

For investors exploring how gold and silver may fit into a broader financial strategy, Allegiance Gold encourages education first, conversations second, and decisions made with long-term perspective.

About Allegiance Gold

Allegiance Gold is a nationally recognized precious metals firm dedicated to helping investors understand and own gold, silver, and other tangible assets with confidence. Through education, transparent pricing, and personalized guidance, the company focuses on building lasting relationships designed to support long-term wealth preservation.

If you’d like to learn more about physical gold or request educational resources, Allegiance Gold is always here to help.

Call Allegiance Gold today at 844-790-9191
or
Book your appointment online to learn how to secure your future through physical gold and silver.

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Act now and join the millions who trust gold to secure their wealth.

The post Allegiance Gold Celebrates 9 Years: Why More Investors Are Reassessing Gold and Physical Assets in Today’s Economy appeared first on Allegiance Gold.

If you’ve done any reading about buying gold, you’ve probably read that one of gold’s characteristics is its intrinsic value. Of course, from the perspective of pure economics, nothing has intrinsic value. Goods only have value because people assign value to them.

The value of a good is derived from the desire that people have to possess it. And enough people have valued gold enough over the years that the value of gold seems to be something intrinsic.

You’ve probably also heard many writers or financial pundits denigrating gold, calling it a worthless relic, a pet rock, or a remnant of the past. Yet there’s a reason gold continues to hang on, and even to gain popularity, especially during times of economic weakness.

That’s because gold has a number of qualities that made it first a popular monetary metal used in world trade for thousands of years, and now a popular safe haven asset. The qualities of gold that made it such a good monetary metal are the same as those that make it such a good safe haven asset.

While gold no longer serves a primary role as a monetary metal today, it still serves an important role as a reserve asset for central banks. In fact, central banks today hold more gold in their reserves than they do US dollars.

Central bankers understand that when the financial system shows signs of weakness, gold can be relied upon as a source of stability. And more and more central bankers expect gold to play a larger role in central bank reserve management in the future.

Now that we’ve scratched the surface in looking at the characteristics that give gold value, let’s take a deeper look into the five reasons that gold has value.

1. Gold Is Durable

It’s hard to imagine another asset that is as durable as gold. Just about all the gold that has ever been mined in all of world history is still in existence above the earth’s surface.

Gold jewelry created by the pharaohs has been displayed in museums around the world, as bright and lustrous as the day it was created. Short of a massive explosion, there’s just about no way to destroy gold.

That durability led to gold’s acceptance as a monetary metal, as its resistance to wear put it head and shoulders above the alternatives. But that durability allows it to excel as a safe haven asset too.

Gold won’t rust, tarnish, or corrode. It won’t deteriorate like paper money, and it can’t disappear into thin air like cryptocurrencies, online bank deposits, or electronic stock shares.

The fact that gold is a durable tangible asset is what appeals to many people. When you feel a gold coin in your hands, you begin to understand why gold has value.

And the fact that you can buy gold, store it yourself, and hold it in your hands whenever you want can give you great peace of mind in a world in which so much is ephemeral.

2. Gold Is Divisible

Gold is easily divisible, and gold coins are available in a wide variety of sizes. Under the gold standard units of currency were defined as weights of gold.

The US dollar was defined as 25.8 grains of 90% pure gold, equivalent to $20.67 per ounce of gold. So each $20 coin would have contained nearly one ounce of gold, a $10 coin would have had half that, a $5 coin half of that again, etc.

Today gold coins and bars are produced in a variety of sizes, with most being minted in troy ounces or fractions thereof. The most popular coins are often available in 1/10, ¼, ½, and one ounce sizes.

Retail gold bars can range in size from a few grams to one kilogram. And if you happen to have a spare few million dollars lying around, you might even be able to spring for a 400-ounce Good Delivery bar.

No matter how much money you have to buy gold, there are products available to suit your needs. And the precious metals specialists at Goldco can help you find just the right ones.

3. Gold’s Portability

Coins have gotten a bad rap for being heavy, bulky, and inconvenient to use. But gold coins are incredibly compact stores of value.

You can hold $50,000 worth of gold coins in the palm of your hand. But the same amount of $100 bills would require five stacks of 100 bills each, something that you not only couldn’t hold easily in your hand, but would even have great difficulty hiding in your pockets.

And when you need to move that gold, it’s easy too. You could easily fit $1 million of gold into a purse or backpack, and be able to move it and hide it in any way you see fit.

4. Gold Is Universally Recognized and Accepted

Gold has been universally acknowledged as valuable across numerous cultures and throughout history. The bible mentions gold over 400 times, most often in the context of wealth, value, and purity.

Even today gold is in demand throughout the world, with India and China being among the biggest buyers of gold coins and gold jewelry. Gold is traded throughout the world, with gold markets operating almost 24/7 and being among the most liquid trading markets in the world.

Gold is also easily recognized, and can be easily distinguished from lesser metals due to its physical properties. By looking at, feeling, weighing, or chemical testing gold, you can easily determine whether a coin or bar is authentic or not.

If you’re worried about the authenticity of your gold purchases, it can help to work with trusted partners like Goldco. Our relationships with mints around the world guarantee that the gold coins you purchase are authentic so that you don’t have to worry about buying counterfeit gold.

5. Scarcity of Gold

Scarcity doesn’t necessarily mean rarity, it just means that there’s not enough of a good to satisfy everyone’s desire for it at once. In the case of gold, all the gold that was ever mined throughout history could fit in a cube about 22 meters long on each side.

For another point of reference, imagine a football field covered with a 1-meter tall pile of gold. Or imagine three Olympic swimming pools filled with gold. That’s all the gold that has ever been mined in the history of the world.

When you think about that compared to the size of the world, you realize just how rare gold is. And when you compare the amount of gold in the world to the number of dollars in circulation, all of a sudden it doesn’t seem like there’s all that much gold at all.

Get Your Hands on Gold

As a result of these properties, gold has been valued by people throughout the centuries and favored as a safe haven asset. Even today, safe haven buying is a strong source of gold demand and a key reason gold prices have increased so much in recent years.

Gold also has a history of performing well when markets don’t, such as during the 2008 financial crisis, when gold gained nearly 25% during the same period that markets fell over 50%. With fear of an economic downturn, it’s no surprise that many people are turning to gold once again to help safeguard their wealth.

With over $3 billion in precious metals placements and over 8,000 5-star reviews, Goldco has a track record of providing top notch gold products and exemplary customer service. That’s why we have become one of the best gold companies in the country.

If you want to learn more about your gold buying options, call Goldco today to learn more about how to put gold to work in helping safeguard your hard-earned savings.

This article was originally published in October 2021 and was updated in February 2026.

The post 5 Reasons Gold Has Value appeared first on Goldco.

Unease about the economy is pervasive through the US. Millions of Americans are uncertain about the economy, their own finances, and their future.

With this growing unease comes a flight to safety and to safe haven assets. Among those safe havens are precious metals, which have seen record high prices recently as more and more people look to buy precious metals.

Many people today remember the financial crisis of 2008, which saw markets fall by over 50% and wiped out trillions of dollars of wealth. And they also remember how precious metals like gold and silver performed in the aftermath of the crisis, with gold rising nearly 270% and silver rising over 500%.

With precious metals and record high prices in the news today, the question most people have today is, what is the best precious metal to buy right now?

Precious metals markets are far different today than they were 10 or 20 years ago, and the number of options available is significantly broader too. So what is the best precious metal to buy, and what are some of the best ways to buy it?

What Are Precious Metals?

Precious metals are rare, naturally occurring metals in the earth’s crust that have high value due to their uses, whether as safe haven assets, in jewelry, or in industry. Both because of their rarity and their use in coinage, jewelry, and industry, precious metals have values far higher than base metals such as steel and copper.

While everyone is familiar with gold and silver, they often overlook the other precious metals, those in the platinum group: ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium, and platinum. So what is the best precious metal to buy right now? Let’s take a look at some of the properties of precious metals.

Now that we’ve looked at some of the properties and characteristics of precious metals, let’s take a deeper dive into precious metals, starting with the four best precious metals to buy right now.

1. Gold

When people think of buying precious metals, their first thought is almost always gold. Gold has captured the imaginations of people across the world for millennia, serving as a currency, a store of value, and a highly popular safe haven asset.

There’s a reason people refer to certain benchmarks as a “gold standard” – because gold is the object against which every other good has always been valued. Gold’s ability to maintain its value over time is legendary.

Just look at the difference between a $20 gold piece from the 1920s and its contemporary $20 bill. That $20 bill is still worth $20, while the $20 gold piece is now worth over 200 times that much.

But gold isn’t just a source of stability or diversification for a financial portfolio. It can also be a source of potential wealth appreciation. Gold has been one of the best performing assets of the 21st century, with a growth rate even surpassing that of stock markets.

With the possibility of an economic downturn weighing on many people’s minds, it’s no wonder that so many people are starting to buy gold to help protect their assets. And for those who want to try to protect their tax-advantaged retirement accounts, you can even take advantage of a 401(k) to gold IRA rollover to buy gold.

A gold IRA allows owners of tax-advantaged retirement accounts such as a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, IRA, or similar account to roll over those funds into an IRA that owns precious metals such as gold. That gold IRA offers the same tax advantages as any conventional IRA, but with the added protection that owning physical gold coins or bars can offer.

2. Silver

All that glitters is not gold, as many silver buyers know well. While silver often plays second fiddle to gold, it can be an important asset in any precious metals portfolio.

During precious metals bull markets, silver’s gains can often outstrip those of gold. After the 2008 financial crisis for instance, silver more than quintupled in price from its 2008 lows to its 2011 highs, while gold only nearly tripled. And in 2025, the silver price rose 144% vs. 65% for the gold price.

The silver price and market is different from that of gold because silver is much more heavily used in industry than gold. Roughly half of all demand for silver normally comes from industry, whether it’s from electronics, dental equipment, or increasingly the solar panel industry.

Silver supply is 2.5% lower than it was in 2016, while silver demand is 15.6% higher. Because most silver is produced as a byproduct of mining for gold, copper, and other metals, decreases in mining activity for those metals can result in decreased production of silver too.

Overall silver supply from mining has decreased 7.2% since 2016, while silver has been in a structural deficit, with demand outstripping supply, since 2021. Silver demand currently exceeds silver supply by over 100 million ounces per year, and there are concerns that the supply of above-ground silver may be insufficient to meet market demand.

With tightening supply and rising demand from both safe haven demand and the solar industry, the silver price could be seeing a major breakout in the coming year, and analysts at Bank of America think silver could reach over $300 an ounce.

Like gold, silver can be purchased through an IRA. A silver IRA allows you to hold silver in an IRA and enjoy all the same benefits of a tax-advantaged retirement account, while simultaneously owning physical silver coins or bars.

3. Platinum

Platinum is the third-most popular precious metal today. If you’re wondering what the best precious metal to buy is, platinum could be right up there.

Platinum’s history isn’t as long as that of gold, although the metal has existed for millennia. But it was only in the 18th century that scientists were first able to separate platinum from the other precious metals with which it was commonly found in mines.

The platinum industry took off after that, with the metal’s durability and resistance to corrosion making it a favorite of jewelers, watchmakers, and other industries.

Roughly half of platinum produced today is used in automotive catalytic converters, its primary industrial use. A large portion of platinum is used in jewelry, and the remainder is used for electronics and in various other industries that need platinum’s resistance to corrosion.

Compared to silver and gold, very little platinum is minted into coins and bars, but those coins and bars are available from mints around the world. Platinum prices haven’t moved nearly as much as silver and gold have in recent years, with decisions in the catalytic converter industry being among the major influences on platinum prices.

Over 80% of platinum production today comes from South Africa, with Russia and Zimbabwe taking the second and third spots. That concentration of production can lead to fears of supply disruption in case of unrest in Africa.

But that also could mean that the platinum price could rise significantly in the event of such a disruption. The platinum price has underperformed in recent years versus gold and silver, but it’s hard to imagine platinum becoming any cheaper than it already is, and some analysts think that the platinum group metals offer some good opportunity for price growth.

Many years ago platinum was actually worth more than gold, and for all we know it may very well get there again. Years from now people may look back and kick themselves for not buying platinum when they had the chance.

4. Palladium

Only discovered in the early 19th century, and once of limited use primarily in jewelry, palladium has seen significant price movement in recent years. Like its sister, platinum, palladium finds one of its primary uses in the automotive industry in catalytic converters.

Similar to platinum, palladium’s production is concentrated in only a handful of countries. Russia and South Africa are the top two producers, with Zimbabwe, the US, and Canada producing lesser amounts of the metal. Supply disruptions and use by the automotive industry are two major drivers of the palladium price.

Supply disruptions from Russia in the early 2000s caused the palladium price to spike to nearly $1,100 an ounce. But by the time the 2008 financial crisis rolled around, palladium had fallen back down to a few hundred dollars an ounce.

Palladium’s lower price vis-a-vis platinum caused numerous auto manufacturers to use it instead of platinum in their catalytic converters. And that increased demand significantly.

The threat of supply disruptions in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused the palladium price to skyrocket, reaching over $3,400 at one point in early 2022. But the risk of palladium sanctions never materialized, automakers drew down their palladium stores, and the price subsequently fell to below $1,000 an ounce.

In recent months palladium has benefited from the overall precious metals boom, and some analysts think that platinum group metals may offer opportunities for price growth in the future.

With so much of the palladium supply dependent on production in Russia and South Africa, and geopolitical events potentially threatening those supplies, those betting on a lower palladium price could end up wrong, to the benefit of those who own palladium.

Honorable Mention: Rhodium

While the four metals above are the most commonly known and traded precious metals, rhodium deserves an honorable mention. It’s really the only other precious metal for which there is at least some available market, which is again, like platinum and palladium, largely due to its use in catalytic converters.

About 80% of rhodium is used in the automotive industry and, like platinum, South Africa is the world’s largest producer. That supply issue has led to a number of surges in the rhodium price over the years, with rhodium hitting an all-time high price of over $29,000 an ounce in 2021.

While the rhodium price afterwards crashed back down to around $4,500 an ounce, that was still multiples higher than the less than $700 it was trading for in 2016. Rhodium is currently trading at around $10,000 an ounce in February 2026, buoyed by the general boom market in precious metals, and there’s no telling when supply disruptions could boost the rhodium price yet again.

But rhodium doesn’t make our cut when it comes to considering what the best precious metal to buy is for a couple of reasons. The first is because of that significant price volatility.

Unlike gold and silver, which see relatively stable long-term price growth, and which can thus benefit those who want to hold assets for the long term, rhodium seems more suited to speculators looking to make a quick buck on sharp price movements.

While there were certainly great gains to be made when rhodium was soaring, there was also the potential for severe losses. Rhodium also isn’t readily available in coin or bar form, so buying it isn’t nearly as easy as the four top precious metals.

Rhodium also isn’t an IRA-eligible precious metal, which can make it more difficult to acquire as a speculative asset. While IRAs are generally prohibited from owning any metals or coins, there are specific exemptions for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, but not for rhodium.

Gold, silver, platinum, or palladium bullion that meets minimum fineness requirements for futures contracts is eligible to be acquired by an IRA. That means you can add physical gold coins or gold bars, silver coins or silver bars, platinum coins or platinum bars, and palladium coins or palladium bars to a precious metals IRA. But rhodium gets left out.

The Other Precious Metals

The other precious metals in the platinum group metals (PGMs) are ruthenium, iridium, and osmium. These metals are among the rarest in the world, and because of their rarity and chemical properties, they just aren’t available in any real quantity to the general public.

For instance, read about the first ever coin made of pure iridium. You can see that because of the difficulty in working with iridium, it just isn’t practical to offer iridium coins and iridium bars to retail buyers.

The same goes for osmium and ruthenium, whose markets are so small and largely limited to industry that it’s nearly impossible for the average consumer to buy them. Add to that the fact that these metals aren’t IRA-eligible, and you soon realize that there is a reason gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are the four best precious metals for most people to buy.

Those four precious metals have well-established markets, plenty of coin and bar options available, and are well known to consumers. Iridium, osmium, and ruthenium may be rare and expensive, but there’s a reason for that, and a reason that no retail market for them really exists.

Common Questions About Precious Metals

What are the main ways to buy precious metals?

Coins and bars are two of the most common and popular ways to buy precious metals. Goldco offers precious metals in both coin and bar form, for both direct purchase and purchase through a precious metals IRA.

Which precious metals gain the most value over time?

Any precious metal can gain value over time, and there is no way to tell which precious metal will gain the most value. Both gold and silver have recently hit all-time high prices, and both remain popular purchase options for our customers.

I’ve never bought precious metals before. Which precious metals are best for me?

The precious metals that are best for you are those which fit your individual needs. You may want to consult with your financial advisor to determine which precious metals can help you achieve your aims, whether that’s portfolio diversification, inflation hedging, or something else.

How much of my portfolio should be allocated to precious metals?

The percentage of your portfolio you devote to precious metals is a decision you need to make with a view toward your risk tolerance and financial goals, and should be done in consultation with your financial advisor. Goldco’s specialists are not financial advisors and cannot provide financial advice.

Do I have to pay taxes when I buy or sell precious metals?

Direct cash purchases of precious metals coins or bars are tax-exempt in many states. You should consult with your financial advisor or tax professional before making a purchase.

Rollovers of funds into a precious metals IRA can normally be made tax-free, although again you will want to consult your financial advisor or tax advisor before starting a rollover.

Sales of precious metals can be subject to taxation, and rates can differ depending on how long you have owned the gold, whether it is held inside or outside of an IRA, etc. Due to the variety of potential tax situations and the fact that Goldco’s specialists are not tax advisors, Goldco cannot provide tax advice.

You should consult with your financial advisor or tax professional before making a sale of precious metals in order to determine your potential tax liability.

How do I know that the precious metals I’m buying are real and not counterfeit?

There are numerous ways to check if the precious metal coins or precious metal bars you have are real. One of the first things to do is to check if the coin or bar matches the published dimensions and weight.

Precious metal coins are also non-magnetic, so they should not be attracted to a magnet. Precious metals coins also make a distinctive pinging sound when they are struck, versus base metals which have more of a thudding sound.

Finally, there are chemical tests that can be done by professionals, although these may damage your precious metals products.

But one of the best ways to avoid counterfeit precious metals is to work with trusted partners like Goldco who work with mints around the world to bring you guaranteed authentic precious metal coins so that you don’t have to worry about possibly buying counterfeit precious metals.

How do I store my precious metals safely?

Gold that you buy with a direct cash purchase can be stored at home, in a safe deposit box or, if you’re making a particularly big purchase, can be stored in a bullion depository.

If you’re buying gold through a gold IRA, your gold coins or gold bars will have to be stored in a bullion depository. Goldco works with experienced precious metals bullion depositories to ensure that our customers’ precious metals assets remain safe and secure.

Can I hold precious metals in an IRA? Which precious metals are IRA-eligible?

Yes, you can hold precious metals in an IRA. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium coins or bullion meeting minimum fineness requirements are eligible for acquisition by an IRA.

How can I fund a precious metals IRA?

One of the most popular ways to fund a precious metals IRA is through a precious metals IRA rollover. You can roll over assets tax-free from an existing retirement account such as a 401(k), 403(b), TSP, or IRA account into a precious metals IRA.

Goldco’s precious metals specialists have helped many customers navigate this rollover process. Contact our specialists to learn more about how the precious metals IRA rollover process works.

Can I take physical possession of the precious metals in my IRA?

The gold in your gold IRA must be stored in a bullion depository, but you may take possession of that gold when you decide to take a distribution through an in-kind distribution.

Some companies claim that there is such a thing as a home storage IRA, which purportedly allows you to purchase gold and silver using IRA assets and store those precious metals at home. These types of arrangements have been explicitly banned by tax courts, and anyone attempting to start a home storage IRA could face significant taxes and penalties.

I already own gold and silver coins. Can I move those into an IRA?

IRAs are prohibited from engaging in certain transactions, including IRA owners selling their property to an IRA.

This is why it can be helpful to consult with your financial advisor or tax advisor to go through the IRA rules and regulations in order to make sure that you don’t inadvertently end up making a mistake that could subject you to taxes and penalties.

Which Precious Metal Is Right for You?

If you want to know what the best precious metal to buy is, you’ll have to judge that according to your own financial or retirement goals. For many people, gold is going to come out on top every single time.

Gold has the benefits of long-term price growth, a good risk to reward ratio, and one of the best track records of any of the precious metals. If you’re looking to help safeguard your financial well-being for the long haul and looking for wealth protection for years or decades to come, gold is going to be hard to beat.

But other people may decide that they can afford a little more risk. They might like the additional potential upside to buying silver, particularly when they see that silver can make incredible gains during a precious metals bull market and can even outgain gold on a percentage basis.

Others may want to put a small percentage of their funds into platinum or palladium, adding even more diversification even though it could increase their risk profile. At the end of the day, it’s up to you which precious metal is the best precious metal to buy.

With years of experience helping thousands of customers just like you purchase precious metals, Goldco’s specialists are ready to assist you with any questions you have and walk you through the precious metals purchase process.

Our commitment to quality products and superior customer service has made us one of the top precious metals companies in the country, and our more than 8,000 5-star reviews are a testament to that.

If you’re interested in putting precious metals to work in helping to safeguard your retirement savings, call Goldco today.

This article was originally published in July 2020 and was updated in February 2026.

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• Money Magazine named Goldco “Best Customer Service” for the 4th consecutive year in its 2026 Gold IRA company rankings.
• The award reflects strong consumer trust, backed by A+ and AAA ratings and more than 8,000 five-star customer reviews.
• Goldco’s service-first, education-focused approach continues to set it apart as an industry leader.

Los Angeles, CA, February 4, 2026 — Money.com (Money Magazine) has once again recognized Goldco for its exceptional customer service, naming the company “Best Customer Service” in its 2026 Best Gold IRA Company Reviews. Goldco earned the top distinction among seven leading gold IRA companies, marking the fourth consecutive year the company has received this prestigious honor.

Money.com evaluated gold IRA companies based on reputation, transparency, educational resources, and customer service. The review included analysis of company websites, fee structures, minimum balance disclosures, and profiles with consumer advocacy organizations such as the Better Business Bureau, Business Consumer Alliance, and Trustpilot. The editors also analyzed the user-friendliness and responsiveness of their customer service.

Money.com attributed Goldco’s “Best Customer Service” designation to its A+ rating from the Better Business Bureau (BBB), AAA rating from the Business Consumer Alliance (BCA), and an extensive collection of positive customer feedback across platforms such as Google, Trustpilot, Consumer Affairs, Retirement Living, and the BBB. The recognition follows a major milestone for the company, which recently surpassed 8,000 five-star reviews from satisfied customers.

In addition to its industry accolades, Goldco is a nine-time Inc. 5000 award recipient, reflecting the company’s sustained growth and operational excellence. The company has also earned widespread recognition through endorsements from prominent figures including Sean Hannity, Tom Selleck, Dennis Quaid, and Chuck Norris.

“This recognition reflects the exceptional customer service we strive to deliver every day,” said Trevor Gerszt, CEO of Goldco. “We focus on clear communication, education without pressure, and support that helps people make informed decisions with confidence.”

To read the Money Magazine article recognizing Goldco as the “Best Customer Service” gold IRA company, visit: https://money.com/best-gold-ira-companies/

About Goldco

Goldco is a privately held company with over a decade of experience in helping customers protect their retirement savings. Whether you want to diversify your retirement savings into a precious metals IRA or buy gold and silver directly, a Goldco specialist can help assist every step of the way.

The company’s long-standing reputation for excellent customer service, high ethical standards, along with precious metals education and resources position Goldco as a preferred precious metals provider. With over 8,000 5-Star customer reviews, numerous awards and the highest industry buy back guarantee, Goldco has set the standard for buying precious metals.

Goldco is rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and Triple A by Business Consumer Alliance. 

About Money.com
Founded in 1972 as a print magazine, Money has long helped everyday people build stronger financial futures. Today, Money.com continues that legacy by delivering timely news, educational resources, and practical tools designed to help readers make informed financial decisions and achieve meaningful, long-term outcomes.

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• After gold topped $5,500 and silver surged past $120, the recent price drops represent a “structural release valve.” These pullbacks are a healthy part of price discovery.
• Despite the price volatility, the core reasons for owning precious metals—inflation concerns, fiscal imbalances, and geopolitical risk—have not changed. 
• Silver’s smaller market size and high retail participation mean it often “overshoots” in both directions. 
• While retail sentiment can shift overnight, central banks and institutional investors continue to add to gold reserves as a diversification strategy.

The story of gold and silver over the past several weeks reads more like a thriller than a traditional commodity price chart. After an extraordinary run that pushed both metals to fresh all-time highs over long-awaited round number levels, precious metal markets experienced one of the most dramatic corrections in recent history. 

For silver in particular, what had been a blistering advance — with prices surging well above historical norms — suddenly gave way to a swift decline. But before too much fear takes hold, it’s worth unpacking what happened, why pullbacks like this are normal, and why the long-term drivers behind precious metals remain intact.

The Price Action

At the peak of the recent rally, both gold and silver were trading at prices that had few precedents. Silver in particular shot up toward the triple-digit range, ultimately reaching $120+ per ounce, a level that would have been hard to imagine outside of a rare macro stress event. 

Gold likewise eclipsed record levels above $5,500 per ounce in nominal terms as investors piled into safe haven assets amid inflation concerns, uncertainty about monetary policy, and geopolitical risk. Those moves reflected a powerful confluence of buyers seeking protection against perceived currency debasement and portfolio risk: the classic “debasement trade” seen in markets under stress. 

Then came the pullback. In late January and over the past weekend, both metals experienced sharp declines. Silver prices, after peaking just days earlier, plunged more than 30 percent in rapid fashion, with some measures showing declines exceeding 40 percent from recent highs. Gold also pulled back sharply — down 20 to 25 percent off its peak in some trading sessions — and both markets saw extended volatility. 

Why The Pullback?

A number of catalysts contributed to the rapid correction. A key driver was a shift in monetary policy expectations following the announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair nominee, which eased some market fears about prolonged ultra-easy monetary policy. 

Rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar can reduce the immediate appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver, especially when markets perceive less risk in the near term. Hikes in margin requirements on futures contracts also forced leveraged traders to reduce positions quickly, accelerating the sell-off. 

Market technicians and short-term traders often view such moves as signs of exhaustion after parabolic rallies. When prices have risen rapidly, positions become crowded, leverage builds up, and sentiment turns overwhelmingly bullish. For that reason, pullbacks in that environment are not a sign that the fundamental story is broken; they are a structural release valve. In fact, some of the most explosive bull markets in history have included violent corrections along the way.

Silver, with its smaller market size and higher volatility compared to gold, is especially prone to this dynamic. It doesn’t take nearly as much capital to push silver dramatically higher or lower, and speculative activity – particularly in markets with heavy retail participation – can amplify those swings. 

That means silver can overshoot on the way up and then overshoot again on the way down. This sort of volatility, while unsettling, does not negate the underlying demand for the metal; it simply underscores silver’s higher beta relative to gold and other assets.

A Healthy Correction?

Despite the recent pullback, both gold and silver remain significantly above where they traded at this time last year. Even after dropping sharply, silver prices are still well above historical norms and remain up markedly over longer time horizons. Gold, too, while off its most extreme levels, still trades at historically elevated prices compared with much of the past decade. 

It’s also important to remember that corrections like this play a healthy role in the price discovery process. They weed out overly leveraged positions, reduce near-term speculative froth, and can ultimately build a stronger base for subsequent advances. Markets that never correct often become dangerously extended and vulnerable to catastrophic breakdowns; markets that correct along the way tend to forge more sustainable trends.

Fundamental Drivers Still Intact

From a fundamental perspective, the macroeconomic conditions that fueled the run-up have not disappeared simply because prices have retraced. Concerns about inflation remain. 

Fiscal imbalances have not gone anywhere, and the credibility of the Federal Reserve continues to be a topic of debate and concern in global markets. Central banks around the world — particularly in emerging economies — have been steadily adding to their gold reserves as part of broader diversification strategies. This institutional demand is slower moving and far less susceptible to abrupt shifts in short-term sentiment. 

Silver’s physical demand story, anchored in both investment demand and industrial use (electronics, photovoltaics, medical technologies), also remains intact – even if prices are correcting. 

Pullbacks are an expected phase of any uptrend, not an existential threat to the secular thesis for precious metals. Sharp corrections follow many of the most memorable rallies in financial history — from equities to commodities — and are part of the normal ebb and flow of markets. 

These drawdowns can be anxiety-inducing, but they also provide valuable perspective: rapid rises nearly always require a period of digestion, consolidation, and reassessment before a next leg can develop. They are a part of a process, not a verdict or decree.

In that sense, the recent action in gold and silver exemplifies classic market behavior. A powerful rally driven by macro drivers and investor positioning built up quickly, attracted momentum buyers and leveraged traders, and then corrected as sentiment shifted and profits were taken. 

What remain, however, are the durable long-term drivers that have historically supported precious metals through varied economic regimes: their roles as a store of value in times of uncertainty, as a hedge against currency debasement, and as portfolio diversifier that carries no counterparty risk that many institutional investors, central banks in particular, continue to hold.

Conclusion

Price treatments are not pleasant, but they are normal. And in markets as dynamic and macro-sensitive as gold and silver, they are to be expected when prices have run up so quickly. Long-term holders – those who understand the broader forces at work – are usually better served by staying focused on the why of the trend and the how of the market process: not just the ‘now’ of the price.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

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2025 was an amazing year for both gold and silver, as the gold price rose 65% and the silver price rose 144%. Coming into 2026, there was a great deal of speculation as to whether that kind of growth could be repeated.

While safe haven buying has driven gold and silver prices to record highs recently, much of that safe haven buying has previously been the result of domestic factors such as job market weakness and financial uncertainty.

Now, however, geopolitical factors could end up playing an increasingly important role in driving gold and silver prices higher in 2026. Tariffs were a major theme in 2025, and they could continue to play a role in 2026.

But there is an increasing risk of conflict around the world, and fear of a regional conflict, security and trade bloc realignments, or even major power conflict could help push gold and silver prices this year. Let’s take a look at some of the ways that geopolitics could impact gold and silver.

How Geopolitics Impacts Gold & Silver

When individuals buy gold and silver, it’s largely for personal financial reasons. Gold has served as a safe haven asset for centuries, as an inflation hedge, and as a store of wealth and value.

Individuals who purchase precious metals are often worried about their future financial well-being, and are looking to diversify their portfolios with precious metals to hedge against future financial uncertainty.

When geopolitics begins to play a role in gold and silver purchases, it isn’t just because of individuals buying gold and silver, but also because of institutions who start to purchase precious metals.

Whether it’s central banks, hedge funds, or financial institutions, institutional purchasers of gold and silver are also looking to diversify their holdings and hedge against risk. And the risk they’re increasingly trying to hedge against is the uncertainty of international relations.

When wars or military conflicts are a threat, there is the potential for a disruption of trade and ordinary economic activity. Those potential disruptions can impact business dealings and profits, and many people try to hedge against that.

While the war between Russia and Ukraine has been festering for years, the impacts of that conflict have largely already been felt throughout the world economy. But there are now some new potential geopolitical crises that could flare up and play a major role in impacting gold and silver prices in 2026.

Here are four of the major geopolitical themes that could impact gold and silver in 2026.

1. Venezuela and South America

The year started with a bang as President Trump launched a shocking raid on Venezuela to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. By the time most Americans woke up and had their morning coffee, the raid was over and Maduro was on his way to an American prison.

The raid was a stunning demonstration of the US military’s capabilities, and a warning to other leaders who thumb their noses at the US. But the question that most people asked in the raid’s aftermath was, “What’s next?”

President Trump stated that the US would “run” Venezuela in the immediate future, but what does that actually mean? There are obviously no US boots on the ground in Venezuela, and Maduro’s lieutenants are still running the country, so this wasn’t about regime change.

For many people, the raid on Venezuela was more about sending China a warning signal not to get involved in the American hemisphere. China had been one of the biggest buyers of Venezuelan crude oil in recent years, as sanctions on Venezuela had limited the country’s ability to sell its oil to international buyers.

Now President Trump is controlling the sale of Venezuelan oil, and directing where the proceeds of those oil sales go. But what is the ultimate aim?

Will Trump continue to involve himself in Venezuela’s political affairs and oil industry? Could he launch more military strikes on the country if the new leaders don’t toe the US line?

Could Trump use his successful raid in Venezuela to put pressure on other South and Central American countries to fall in line with further US demands?

There are a lot of questions to deal with and a lot of uncertainty, and that uncertainty could boost demand for gold and silver every time events in Venezuela and South America pop up again.

2. Iran and the Middle East

Recent protests in Iran began on December 28th as the result of discontent with high inflation and a struggling economy. But a bloody crackdown on protesters has resulted in thousands of deaths and thousands more arrests, with deaths estimated by some to range up to 20,000 and injuries up to 330,000.

President Trump has publicly stated that it is time for a change of government in Iran, and he has threatened military strikes against Iran in response to the crackdown on protesters. Thus far the order to strike has not yet come, but given the successful strike against Iran in June 2025, there would likely be nothing Iran could do to defend against such a strike.

The risk, however, is that a unilateral strike could inflame tensions in the Middle East and result in Iranian-backed terrorist groups striking US interests in the Middle East or lashing out against Israel, which could then result in further recriminations.

There’s a fine line to be woven here, and of course many questions that Americans (and others) are asking.

Can the US successfully launch major military strikes in two different areas of the world only weeks apart? If the US strikes Iran, what could the possible after effects be?

Can the US afford to get itself involved in the Middle East? And does Trump have the political capital or the political will to see things through to their conclusion if he does decide to strike Iran?

While there is no firm order to attack Iran yet, if such an attack were to occur, it could spark fear of a Middle East flareup, and could cause even more safe haven buying of gold and silver.

3. Greenland and Europe

President Trump has long stated that he wants the United States to control Greenland. The country’s proximity to the Arctic, which is increasingly becoming an area of conflict among powers including China and Russia, makes it an important strategic area for the United States.

While the US currently maintains a military base on Greenland, the island has largely been devoid of a major military presence, something which has allowed China and Russia to stake their claims to the Arctic region.

Not wanting to allow other powers to monopolize the Arctic, President Trump believes that US control over Greenland would allow the US to maintain its strategic influence in the Arctic region. In his view, US control of Greenland is both necessary and inevitable, and the US and its allies can either resolve this issue the easy way or the hard way.

European nations were shocked when President Trump recently threatened to impose tariffs on European nations he believed were stymieing his attempt to take over Greenland. And while he subsequently rescinded that plan, the damage may already have been done.

Whereas before some may have taken Trump’s comments about Greenland to be somewhat joking or semi-serious, this imposition of tariffs makes it clear that Trump isn’t playing around. And in the aftermath of the raid on Venezuela to capture Maduro, Europe is certainly taking Trump seriously.

What most people want to know now is, where does this end?

Will the EU come up with some sort of agreement to give the US greater control over Greenland? Will Trump try to take Greenland with military force?

Does the US military have the ability to take on simultaneous missions in South America, the Middle East, and Greenland? And what are the potential financial costs of taking control of Greenland?

Trump’s Greenland gamble has opened up a third front and has already scuttled the trade deal he struck with the EU. How far will he go in his desire to control Greenland?

If US-EU relations take a nosedive as a result of Trump’s Greenland gambit, it could push even more people into buying safe haven assets like gold and silver.

4. The Federal Reserve

You may be wondering why the Federal Reserve is on the list of geopolitical factors that could influence gold and silver. And that’s because the Fed’s actions impact the value and international standing of the dollar, which still is the dominant world reserve currency.

President Trump has long expressed his displeasure with Fed Chairman Jay Powell, complaining that Powell isn’t being as aggressive as he should be in cutting interest rates. And now Trump has upped the ante by pursuing a criminal investigation into Powell surrounding his comments on renovations to the Fed’s headquarters.

On the face of it, it seems to be a blatant attempt to strong-arm Powell into acquiescing to Trump’s demands, or at least into forcing Powell to step down from the Fed. Powell’s term as Chairman ends in May, although his term as a member of the Board of Governors doesn’t end until January 2028.

Trump’s actions to pursue criminal charges have been seen in many circles as an attempt to end the Fed’s independence on monetary policy, and the attack on Powell has spooked markets and led to questions about how independent the Fed might be under a future chairman.

If the Fed is no longer seen as being independent of the President’s will but merely an instrument of the President’s policy and aiding debt-driven fiscal policy, it could erode the Fed’s standing with markets and lead to lower confidence in the dollar.

With the dollar having lost 88% of its purchasing power since 1971 and over 50% of its purchasing power since 2000, falling confidence in the dollar and in the Fed’s ability to keep the dollar from weakening substantially could weaken the dollar’s status internationally and lead to an exodus not only from the dollar but from dollar-denominated assets and US assets in general.

Will “Sell America” Be the Highlight of 2026?

The combination of these geopolitical factors is leading to what has been labeled the “Sell America” trade. Traders are having to assess how exposed they want to be to the dollar and to US assets in an era of increasing geopolitical unpredictability.

If “Sell America” becomes a thing, it could mean that traders and financial institutions might try to reduce their purchases of US Treasury debt, hold fewer dollars, or reduce their purchases of US stocks and bonds in order to minimize their exposure to United States markets.

Another thing it could do is spur further purchases of gold and silver, which have reputations as sound and stable safe haven assets.

Gold and silver aren’t unique to the US. They’re widely traded on world markets, in demand in countries around the world, and have generally low correlation to stocks, bonds, and other financial assets.

If trading houses and financial institutions look to move their assets away from exposure to a risky US market, gold and silver could be some of the assets they choose to move their money to, which could provide further impetus to gold and silver prices.

The Impact of Geopolitics on You

One of the key characteristics of these geopolitical events is their unpredictability. No one could have foreseen the capture of President Maduro.

No one knows whether Trump will end up attacking Iran and, if he does, what will happen as a result. And no one knows how the debate over Greenland will end up impacting US-EU relations down the road.

It’s because of this unpredictability that there is so much uncertainty surrounding the future. Whereas before international relations and international trade were governed by rules that everyone assumed weren’t going to change.

Then President Trump changed the rules, and now people are trying to figure out what happens next. This is a classic case of regime uncertainty, in which doubt about the future direction of government policies upends market operations.

In times of uncertainty, people tend to return to trusted sources of stability, including precious metals like gold and silver.

No one knows what the future holds. If the US military launches further strikes in the Middle East and South America, it could further destabilize those regions and lead to more military conflict, potentially disrupting oil markets and driving up the price of gasoline.

The dispute surrounding Greenland could result in a tariff war that could increase the prices of imported goods, including food. And we haven’t even mentioned the effects of existing tariffs, which could also get hiked further during a possible trade war, raising the costs of goods throughout the economy.

The long story short is that no one knows where events this year will lead, but there is certainly the potential for things to get very bad. And as long as fear and uncertainty remain, expect safe haven buying of gold and silver to continue.

Help Protect Yourself With Gold and Silver

If you’re worried about the potential effects that geopolitical events may have on your financial well-being, how much thought have you given to trying to protect yourself?

Nearly 40% of Americans bought gold and silver last year to help safeguard themselves, and most of those Americans are looking to buy more.

If you’re not one of those people who bought gold, what are you waiting for?

Last year the gold price rose 65% and the silver price rose 144%. This year both gold and silver have continued to set record highs, and some analysts believe that gold could hit over $7,000 an ounce while silver could reach over $150 an ounce.

Safe haven buying, whether it is the result of geopolitical fears or uncertainty surrounding the economy, is helping push gold and silver prices higher, benefiting gold and silver owners. Are you ready to take advantage of that potential price growth?

Goldco has helped thousands of Americans benefit from owning gold and silver, and our over 8,000 5-star reviews are a testament to our outstanding products and customer service. At Goldco we work hard to earn our reputation as one of the best gold and silver companies in the business.

Don’t let geopolitical events put your hard-earned savings at risk. Call Goldco today to learn more about how gold and silver can help you safeguard your future.

The post Gold, Silver, and Geopolitics: A Look Ahead for 2026 appeared first on Goldco.

With a price gain of 144% last year, silver was one of the best-performing assets of 2025. But will the white metal be able to keep up that kind of momentum in 2026?

So far this year the answer seems to be yes, as silver has risen another 42%, continuing to set all-time highs. Silver seemed to hit $100 an ounce easily, while some think silver could continue to climb to $150, or even over $300 an ounce.

For silver owners, these prices have been a vindication of their trust in silver, which has been undervalued versus gold for years. For those looking to buy silver, the recent price increases are probably causing many to wish they had bought silver sooner.

Now the question most people ask is, will silver continue its strong momentum of upward price movement? And where will the silver price end up in 2026?

Factors Behind Silver Price Surge

Like all goods, the silver price is determined by the interplay between supply and demand. Unlike gold, which according to the World Gold Council sees approximately 7% of its demand each year coming from industry and technology, silver normally sees about 50-60% of its demand coming from industrial demand.

According to the Silver Institute, net physical investment demand for silver has averaged about 21% of overall silver demand over the past five years, while industrial demand has averaged about 54% of silver demand.

But there are some elements unique to silver that are helping push the silver price higher today. Let’s look at five of the reasons the silver price is surging today.

1. Shortage of Physical Silver

For the past five years silver demand has exceeded silver supply. That is to say, the amount of physical silver used has exceeded the amount of physical silver produced.

From 2021 to 2025, the total shortfall between silver demand and silver supply was almost 800 million ounces. Put into perspective against annual silver supply, that means that the amount of silver used that couldn’t be met by supply was equivalent to over 75% of last year’s entire silver supply.

That is a huge shortfall, and many silver market observers have warned over the years that such a shortfall could not be sustainable, and that it would eventually result in higher silver prices.

It looks like what they had been predicting is finally coming true. Now that the physical silver shortage has been going on long enough, that shortage is finally beginning to be felt in silver markets, or at least the fear that physical silver is in short supply.

2. Paper Silver vs. Physical Silver

One of the reasons there is fear of a silver shortage is because of the difference between paper and physical silver. Physical silver is the 1000-ounce bars that trade on international markets and that are the backbone of physical silver markets.

Paper silver refers to things like silver futures or shares in silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), assets which derive their value from an underlying physical asset, in this case silver, but which are in and of themselves not an actual physical asset.

The reason this is important is because many traders of paper silver don’t care if they own physical silver or not. They’re trying to make a few bucks by buying and selling futures or options, or by trading ETF shares.

Put yourself in their shoes. If you buy 100 shares of a silver ETF, and the price goes up 50%, and you sell for a big profit, does it matter to you that you didn’t actually own physical silver or couldn’t convert your shares into silver? Probably not.

For many traders, they’re happy to see these contracts settling for cash rather than physical silver delivery. But with a shortage of almost 800 million ounces of silver over the past five years, an increasing number of silver users are going to futures markets to buy silver, and they want physical silver delivered.

If you need 100,000 ounces of silver to make solar panels, or electronics, or jewelry, a contract that settles in cash and gives you a cash profit doesn’t help you when you need that physical silver to produce your goods.

Let’s say you make a $3 million profit on that contract, but you still have an entire factory full of workers and machinery sitting idle because you’re waiting on that silver to make your solar panels. You need that silver to keep doing business, and paper silver isn’t going to cut it.

Some people have speculated that the final impetus for a real spike in the silver price could be in the case when someone who needs and expects physical delivery is faced with a force majeure situation, meaning that a contract in which they expect physical delivery is forced into cash settlement because the exchange doesn’t actually have enough silver to deliver to fulfill the contract.

If such a scenario were to happen, it could spook other silver users, causing them to panic and try to buy up as much physical silver as possible in order to keep something similar from happening to them. And that could send silver prices soaring.

Could 2026 be the year that something like that happens?

3. Safe Haven Demand for Silver

Another factor helping drive prices higher is safe haven demand. Silver serves as a safe haven asset just as gold does, and safe haven demand for silver is finally catching up.

With the US economy facing a shaky job market, sticky inflation, and fear of a potential stock market downturn, many Americans are looking for assets to help keep them safe in the event that the economy sours.

Silver could help play that role, and with silver having seen such phenomenal growth last year, many people buying silver today are undoubtedly hoping that silver could continue to see even more growth in the future.

4. Geopolitical Uncertainty Helping Drive Silver Demand

Uncertainty about the US economy isn’t the only factor helping drive silver demand. Geopolitical uncertainty is becoming an increasingly important factor this year too.

Tariffs may have been the threat in 2025, but trade war or even all-out war are fears in 2026. With a raid on Venezuela, the threat of intervention in Iran, and saber rattling surrounding Greenland, the world suddenly seems to be a very unstable place.

This heightened geopolitical uncertainty could help boost gold and silver prices.

5. Heightened Retail Interest in Silver

Any time you have an asset that surges 144% in a single year, then goes on to make double digit gains and set new record highs in the first month of the next year, you’re going to have interest from people who wouldn’t normally give that asset a second look.

That’s the case with silver today, which most of the time plays second fiddle to gold. But with the silver price having risen so much over the past year, people have begun to sit up and take notice.

According to the Silver Institute, net physical investment in gold increased 7% from 2024 to 2025. But that’s still 40% below its peak in 2023.

Will 2026 see an increase in demand for silver coins and bars as more interested buyers dive into silver to take advantage of price increases? Or will high prices discourage buyers and keep them on the sidelines hoping for price dips?

Even at these all-time high silver prices, someone is buying. We’ll just have to see whether 2026 continues the trend of greater retail demand for silver, whether in the form of silver coins and silver bars, or silver purchases by ETFs.

Are You Taking Advantage of Silver?

Silver’s performance over the past year isn’t a surprise to anyone who has studied the white metal and its historical price performance.

During the 1970s, the silver price rose at an annualized rate of over 30% per year over the course of the entire decade. And in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the silver price rose over 500% from its 2008 low to its 2011 high, more than double the gain that gold made.

Some analysts expect silver to hit over $150 an ounce this year, and some have even speculated that silver could hit as high as $300 an ounce. While you may think silver is high now, it could still have a lot of room to run.

If you want to add silver to your portfolio, Goldco has silver coin options available for you, whether you choose to make a direct cash purchase of silver or prefer to hold your silver coins in a silver IRA.

With prices rising every day, now is the time to decide whether you want to start putting silver to work for you. Call Goldco today to talk to one of our specialists and learn more about your silver buying options.

The post Silver Price Rose 144% in 2025; Will 2026 See a Repeat? appeared first on Goldco.

• The move to $5,000 gold and $100 silver represents a fundamental “repricing of trust” in the global financial system.
• A decisive shift has occurred where global central banks are exchanging dollar-denominated assets for bullion
• Gold is increasingly decoupling from the traditional “flight-to-safety” playbook; it now thrives even when stocks and bonds fall simultaneously.
• Silver has transcended its role as gold’s “volatile cousin,” driven by a “perfect storm” of persistent industrial supply deficits (solar, electronics).

For decades, gold and silver have occupied an uneasy place in modern finance: admired, to be sure, occasionally feared, but often dismissed as relics of a bygone economic era. That posture is no longer sustainable.

With gold crossing the once-unthinkable threshold of $5,000 per ounce and silver decisively breaking above $100, the precious metals complex has entered a qualitatively different phase: one best understood not as a speculative spike, but as a structural repricing.

Thresholds matter in markets. They are not merely round numbers; they mark changes in behavior, narrative, and institutional participation. Gold at $2,000 felt like a cyclical rally. Gold at $5,000 signals something deeper: a multi-generational reassessment of risk, trust, and the architecture of the global financial system.

Silver’s move is even more striking. Long regarded as gold’s volatile cousin – part industrial input, part monetary hedge – it has now crossed into territory that forces investors, policymakers, and central banks to re-evaluate its role altogether.

The Repricing of Trust

At the heart of the current rally is not inflation alone, nor interest rates in isolation, but a broader erosion of confidence – what has sometimes been called the “debasement trade.”

Buyers around the world are increasingly skeptical of governments’ ability to preserve purchasing power while managing ballooning debt, yawning budget deficits, geopolitical entanglements, and domestic political pressures. Gold, uniquely, sits outside that system.

This matters because the traditional pillars of financial safety are wobbling. US Treasurys, long treated as the ultimate risk-free asset, have failed to perform their historical role during recent episodes of geopolitical stress.

When tariff threats, territorial disputes, or questions about central bank independence originate within the United States itself, US Treasury securities and the dollar no longer provide the insulation buyers once expected. Gold, by contrast, has repeatedly done so.

This is not theoretical. Recent market episodes showed gold rising sharply on days when stocks fell and Treasurys declined alongside them – a complete inversion of the traditional flight-to-safety playbook. The implication is profound: gold is being repriced not just as an inflation hedge, but as a hedge against institutional fragility.

Interest Rates and Opportunity Cost

Lower interest rates have reinforced this shift. When yields on cash and government bonds were rising, gold’s lack of yield was perceived as a disadvantage. The calculus of that assessment has flipped.

As central banks cut rates (or signal a willingness to do so) even amid persistent inflation, the opportunity cost of holding gold diminishes. What remains is its convexity: limited downside as compared to fiat currencies, and substantial upside if confidence erodes further.

The scale of global liquidity magnifies this effect. Trillions of dollars remain parked in money market funds and short-term instruments. Gold still represents a minuscule fraction of private financial portfolios. Even marginal reallocations – from cash into bullion or gold-backed ETFs – can produce outsized price movements. This is not speculative excess; it is simple arithmetic applied to a market that is deep, but not infinitely so.

Central Banks Are Voting with Their Balance Sheets

Perhaps the most underappreciated driver of gold’s ascent is foreign central bank demand. For much of the late 20th century, central banks were net sellers of gold, viewing it as an inefficient asset in an era of dollar dominance and financial globalization. That era ended quietly after the global financial crisis and decisively after 2022.

Since then, central banks – particularly those with strained relationships with the West broadly or the US specifically – have been steadily exchanging dollar-denominated assets for bullion. This is not a bet on price appreciation alone.Gold carries no counterparty risk. It cannot be sanctioned, frozen, or repudiated by another state. For reserve managers concerned about political leverage embedded in the global financial system, that attribute has become invaluable.

Even allies are participating in the shift. Countries like Poland have explicitly framed gold accumulation as a stabilizing force for their national balance sheets. The result has been a steady, price-insensitive bid that underpins the market regardless of short-term volatility.

Equity Valuations and Portfolio Rotation

Gold’s surge also reflects unease elsewhere. Equity markets, particularly in the United States, are historically expensive by multiple valuation metrics. Concentration risk is acute: a small cluster of technology giants exerts disproportionate influence over some stock market indices. Episodes where those stocks falter – while smaller companies outperform – signal a search for alternatives rather than a wholesale retreat from risk.

Gold benefits from this rotation. It is not correlated with earnings cycles, profit margins, or technological disruption. It is a different kind of asset altogether – one whose value rises when traditional assumptions about growth and stability come into question.

Momentum with Memory

Gold rallies tend to persist. Historically, years of strong gains are often followed by additional advances rather than immediate reversals. That pattern reflects the slow-moving nature of the forces involved: unlike trends in stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even bonds (as recently seen in the US and Japan, among other places) monetary regimes, fiscal trajectories, and institutional credibility do not reset overnight.

Crossing $5,000 reinforces this dynamic. It forces benchmarks, risk models, and buyer expectations to adjust upward. What once looked extreme now becomes the new reference point.

Silver’s Breakout: Scarcity Meets Monetary Demand

Silver’s move above $100 is arguably even more consequential. Unlike gold, silver straddles two worlds. It is both a monetary metal and a critical industrial input found in electronics, solar panels, medical devices, and advanced manufacturing. That dual role makes it uniquely sensitive to supply constraints.

The silver market has run persistent global supply deficits for several years. Mine production has struggled to keep pace with demand, while inventories have been drawn down. Short squeezes, retail buying, and confusion around export policies have only exacerbated the imbalance.

At the same time, silver has emerged as the “accessible” precious metal for buyers that feel priced out of gold. As gold reaches new highs, silver increasingly serves as the marginal entry point into the precious metals trade. The combination of structural scarcity and expanding monetary demand creates conditions for sustained volatility, but also the potential for further upside.

Bitcoin Who?

The current environment has also clarified what gold is not competing with. Despite frequent comparisons, bitcoin has not functioned as a safe haven during episodes of geopolitical or policy stress. Its volatility, drawdown history, and correlation patterns mark it as a risk-on asset more useful for speculation and technological experimentation than as a store of value during crises.

Gold’s resurgence is not a repudiation of innovation, but a reaffirmation of fundamentals. When trust is strained, history matters.

Looking Ahead

None of this implies a straight shot to higher prices. Volatility will increase, especially for silver. Profit-taking, policy reversals, or temporary easing of geopolitical tensions can produce pullbacks. But the broader trajectory appears intact.

Gold and silver are being repriced for a world where monetary discipline is persistently uncertain, geopolitical risk is endogenous rather than external, and institutional credibility can no longer be taken for granted.

Crossing $5,000 and $100, respectively, is not the end of that process. It is likely the beginning of a new frame of reference. In that sense, we are not bearing witness to speculative mania, but the emergence of a new era. An era in which hard assets reclaim a central role in portfolios designed not just for return, but for resilience.

About the author: Peter C. Earle, Ph.D, is the Director of Economics and Economic Freedom and a Senior Research Fellow who joined AIER in 2018. He holds a Ph.D in Economics from l’Universite d’Angers, an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Earle spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area as well as engaging in extensive consulting within the cryptocurrency and gaming sectors. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the author are the author’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Goldco. The author’s opinions are based on the author’s personal experience, education and information the author considers reliable. Goldco does not warrant that the information contained herein is complete or accurate, and it should not be relied upon as such. 

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